Friday, August 30, 2013

Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
At first look, tonight’s final Metropolitan programme of the season looks like almost too easy to be true but on further inspection it will take some effort to make it a winning night. I plan to make my coin w/ a slightly timid but still potentially lucrative Formula 3 w/ my best four bets on the card, while I’ll also be targeting two Money Races, two Exotic Speed Map Specials and a whole range of Quads to suit the tricky races it will cover.

Best Bets/ Formula 3
To be honest, I could have included a number of other horses into this Multi but when it came down to brass knuckles, these are the ones I can’t see getting rolled. Having said that, two of my wagers are on horses either first or second up in Oz so I’m allowing for the possibility that one of them could get rolled by having a Formula 3 which will cost. A $50 outlay will get you the F3 12.5 times.

Bollinger Baby (Race 1 no. 1) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
She is one of the two I’m plumping for virtually sight unseen. A talented Sandgroper who has just been transferred to Emma Stewart she finished off a recent trial victory in a sizzling 55.6-seconds. Also on her side is the fact that there are no real starts among her rivals and that she has shown enough gate speed across the Nullarbor to make full use of her polemarking draw.

Have A Bender (Race 5 no. 12) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I’ve probably been a little generous marking this guy at $3.50 because based on recent form he’s at least half a class better than this lot. That is not to disparage his rivals but he finished fourth behind Bitobliss and Smoken Up last start so to suggest this is a drop in grade is something of an understatement for mine.

Melita Bromac (Race 10 no. 9) $1.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This filly was absolutely outstanding on debut then probably ran into a budding star last time out at Cranbourne. She ;lacks gate speed so the draw will not be an issue and with no genuine guns among her rivals I think she’ll win w/ ease.

Willow Robyn (Race 12 no. 3) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is another somewhat tricky race but to my mind if this guy can brain Faraway Man who would himself brain anything else in this field he really should be winning here. As I say, this one is also not without risk but I’m pretty bullish and hopefully we’ll have the three winners we need by this stage anyway!

The Money Races
Race 3 (Flexi Trifecta) – Click here to bet on this race now
By far the most likely scenario here is that Earl Harbour (3) will make full use of his draw by finding the early lead and he will dictate affairs until the heat goes on late. At that juncture the one who’ll be charging out after him is Kyvalley Blur (8). There is some chance that Earl Harbour (3) will hand up in transit but either way I think the two big guns will fight it out or finish first and third at very worst.

3,8/ 3,8/ 1,6,7,9. $40 gets 500%
3,8/ 1,6,7,9/ 3,8. $10 gets 125%

Race 6 ($25K Jackpot First 4’s) – Click here to bet on this race now
It’s fantastic to see that TAB are supporting this race w/ a $25,000 First 4 Jackpot and fortunately it’s a race ideally suited to that punting medium. Basically I’m tipping that the cream will really rise to the top here w/ Our Femme Fatale (13), Tandias Bromac (7), Spokeswoman (11) and Rogers Passion (8) likely to fill the top three placings at least, so I’ve staggered a quartet of First 4’s around that happening and I’ve had a genuine crack w/ a bigger than normal $100 outlay.

7,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,6,7,8,9,11,13. $55 gets 114.58%
8,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,6,7,8,9,11,13. $24 gets 50%
7,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 3,4,5,10,12. $15 gets 25%
8,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 3,4,5,10,12. $6 gets 10%

Exotic Speed Map Specials
This is a new category of bet for the #goodform blog and I must stress these are far more speculative wagers than the Money Races above because, essentially, we are relying on specific speed map scenarios to play out at the start.

Race 7 (Flexi Trifectas) – Click here to bet on this race now
In this race I’m expecting On The Razzle (4) to cross over and head off Bettor Give It (1). If that happens we’re in w/ a big winning chance.

1,4/ 1,4/ 2,5,7,8,10,11,12. $28 gets 200%
1,4/ 2,5,7,8,10,11,12/ 1,4. $22 gets 157.14%

Race 9 (Flexi Trifectas) – Click here to bet on this horse now
It’s a very similar scenario here with Franco Jackson (4) likely to burn across the face of the field and head off The Black Frost (1) early on. If that scenario prevails I think they’ll dominate the race.

1,4/ 1,4/ 8. $10 gets 500%
1,4/ 8/ 1,4. $4 gets 200%
1,4/ 1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7,11. $24 gets 200%
1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7,11/ 1,4. $12 gets 100%

The Quaddies (x4) Click here to have a punt on the Quaddie
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 12/ 7,8,11,13/ 1. $20 gets 83.33%
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 12/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,4,5,11,12. $30 gets 25%
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 1,2,8,9,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 1. $20 gets 16.67%
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 1,2,8,9,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,4,5,11,12. $30 gets 5% 

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Have A Bender (Race 5 no.12) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s been very consistent and I was quite happy with his run last week. Bitobliss sat on my back and was too quick for me but we were only a length from the winner.

“Realistically I’ve carted him into the race and he’s beaten me by a length and he is a Group 1 horse so I can’t be disappointed.

“He just needs an ounce of luck; the quality probably comes down a bit so if he has a similar run I’d imagine he’d be very hard to beat.”
Bit Of A Babe (Race 6 no.3) $26 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I put Bit Of A Babe in thinking if it was a fairly week $20,000 race that I could sneak one up on Lance but unfortunately it didn’t work.

“She lost form at the finish of her last preparation and I was pretty disappointed we missed a Breeders Crown campaign with her because she was just lengths below her best and we couldn’t really put our finger on it so we gave her a break.

“She trialled nicely yesterday but admittedly I was putting her in thinking that the field might have fallen away a little at this time of the season but unfortunately it’s a pretty strong field.

“In saying that she’s well and she’s fresh so I’d expect her to be in the first half-dozen for sure.

“At her very best she’s been around the better ones so she’s only a maiden mare starting this season so she should have a future.

Washmepockets (Race 5 no.7) $16 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He went quite well, he got held up at the finish and probably didn’t get a great crack at them. He just keeps running his usual honest race each week, not much changes with him. He’s used to drawing six or seven so he’ll probably have to work forward this time.

“It really just depends on barrier draws and luck in running with him because he is just one of those horses that performs every time you send him around.

Kotare Roland (Race 7 no.10) $14 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I think he’s probably better off with cover and last week he went terrific again. There just wasn’t quite enough speed and the horse I was following didn’t cart me in on the corner but his last few runs have been good and I’d expect him to be competitive again.

Tabcorp Park Driver Talk – Chris Alford
Best Chance
Melita Bromac (Race 10 no.9) $1.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s a bit green and doesn’t know a lot about it but her first run was good and the second run was probably better but the winner might be a nice horse and going 58 around Cranbourne is a good run so it looks to be a bit easier this week.

“She’s just trying to get the penalty free wins out of the way as a two-year-old otherwise she’d probably be in the paddock now.

“She seems to have a lot of bottom to her so once she switches on she should be up there with the Oaks fillies.

Bellasario (Race 1 no.5) $12 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s been doing really well since she came back from a throat operation and she had a torn muscle in her chest which made her hang out in the heat and final of the Breeders Crown but she seem a lot better this week so she should run really well.

Im Living The Dream (Race 2 no.7) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s really turned the corner and she was good through the Breeders Crown series. She has drawn bad but you’d still have to think she’s in with a good chance in an even race.

Kyvalley Blur (Race 3 no.8) $2 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He went terrific last week winning very easily. He has looked pretty good so far and if he has any luck from the draw he will be very hard to beat. This field looks a bit easier than last week and given the polemarker walks off the gate I’d say I’ll be straight off the pegs.

“I’m pretty sure he will end up being a Group horse, he’s pretty quick and he also has a bit of strength about him.
Composed (Race 5 no.5) $6.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a great honest horse who is right in the money when things go his way. He will probably press forward and he might even find the front; from there he would be in with a huge chance.

Tandias Bromac (Race 6 no.7) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She did a great job in Sydney; I had to come out a bit earlier than I wanted to try and get around before the other one could trail me but I got parked three deep.

“She’s going to be a pretty handy mare I think. She’s actually really light and there isn’t much of her so once she goes out and has a break and builds up a bit I’m sure she will come back much better.
Eliminator (Race 7 no.12) $8.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I don’t know a lot about him, I don’t think I’ve driven him before but he’s done a good job since he’s been here and you can’t knock winning form which he has.”

Maori Vacation (Race 8 no.10) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“The leader stopped and the swoopers had got past before he got the run. He is pretty consistent and he’d only need to find the right run in transit and he’d be some hope.”

Kyvalley Racer (Race 11 no.9) $14 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Chris’s (Lang, trainer) horses are going really well at the moment so you’d think if he has any luck in that class of race he would be a rough chance.”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Bitobliss: 26.72secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Bitobliss: 54.22secs
Fastest Last Mile – Bitobliss: 1:54.87
Sectional Superstar
Kyvalley Blur (Race 3 no.3) – $2.00 – Click here to bet on this horse now
It’s not often we declare squaregaiters the sectional superstar but this guy well and truly deserves it.
He ripped home in 27.77 his last quarter when winning last week and that was just as good as the times being set by most of the pacing winners.
He also charged through a 56.39 last half and if Puppet can get him away from the markers in the early stages and have him balanced; the $2 will look overs on the turn.
Speed Maps

Race 1
BOLLINGER BABY (1) does have good gate speed and will be vying for the early lead here with fellow fast-starters PEACES OF YOU (2),  ILLAWONG KATH (3) & even BELLASARIO (5) wider on the track. If BOLLINGER BABY (1) can kick through and hold the top then MISS RUTHLESS (9) should get a gun peg-line run while BETTOR BELIEVE IT (12) and MAGICAL MOLLY (13) will be the dangerous late closers in the the three-wide line.

Race 2
ELEVENTH COMMAND (1) has the speed to hold her rivals wide for as long as she likes here but with WIN THE CROWD (6) also a go-forward type it would not surprise to see her hand the ascendancy over through the early/middle stages of the race. Either way DYNAMITE DUDE (8) will lob an economical peg-line trip while BIG ZEE (10) should race tough at some stage of the race. IM LIVING THE DREAM (7) and KICKITOCHRIS (9) are the fastest sit-sprinters engaged and may just run over the top of their rivals late.

Race 3
EARL HARBOUR (3) generally leaves the mobile arm pretty quickly and with fellow fast starter JINGLING SILVER (4) drawn outside him he should be finding the lead. From there EARL HARBOUR (3) can either shoot far an all-the-way win or hand over to an appropriate rival. Race favourite KYVALLEY BLUR (8) will probably enjoy a quiet trip before attempting to use his superior speed late while ARMED GUARD (1) will also benefit from a cheap peg-line trip. There are no dead-set enforcers engaged but PRETTYLILANGELEYES (7) and TENDER DON (9) can both do work and kick on in the lane.

Race 4
Stablemates GIVEUSAGRIN (1) and OUR CALL OF DUTY (5) are the quickest front line beginners here but whichever finds the front – most likely GIVEUSAGRIN (1) – will be immediately tested by natural enforcer CHEAP TINT (4). The decisions made early on will probably determine the race’s result but no matter what happens TIMELESS ERA (8) will enjoy a rare peg-line journey, NARRA OPERATIVE (12) will be off and running at some stage and MISTER ONETWO (13) will be latching onto whoever he can for a nice trail into the race

Race 5
There is some good speed drawn outside him but with the advantage of his gate two draw ARTOC (2) should boot through and hold the early lead. if he does it would be a shock to see him hand up so Peg-line Warrior WELL HELLO DOLLY (1) should get her favourite journey in behind the speed. WASHMEPOCKETS (7) loves to roll forward so should occupy a forward spot while COMPOSED (5) and WARTIME SWEETHEART (11) will be sweeping home late and HAVE A BENDER (12) can be anywhere in the three-wide line and still prove too good in the lane.

Race 6
There’s almost no doubt that BIT OF A BABE (3) will cross over and find the front first here but she should be handing up, most likely to TANDIAS BROMAC (7) who should just keep going forward in search of the mid-race lead. ROGERS PASSION (8) will need a stack of luck from the draw as she’ll be shuffled back the pegs while SPOKESWOMAN (11) and OUR FEMME FATALE (13) will be charging around them through the middle stages.

Race 7
ON THE RAZZLE (4) is a brilliant beginner that looks a 90% chance of finding the pegs first and with Lance Justice in the sulky it’s unlikely he’ll be handing up. That should leave either BETTOR GIVE IT (1) or CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (2) with the ideal run while CUT FOR AN ACE (7) is the other who’ll be charging forward early. EXCITEUSINTHECITY (11) and ELIMINATOR (12) can both sustain long, searching runs and look the likeliest closers from the rear while BORN AGAIN SASSY (8) should get a beaut peg-line trip but will need the gaps to open late.

Race 8
A number of these can fly the mobile start headed by ORLANDOS DREAM (2), COMMANDER JEWEL (3) and ILLAWONG MAGIC (5) so early decisions will be crucial but if COMMANDERS JEWEL (3) finds the early lead without spending too much petrol he is the one to beat. MICHAEL THOMAS (7) should just roll forward from his wide front-line draw while GOLDSTAR INVASION (9), MAORI VACATION (10) & KATMANDONNY (11) should all be closing hard if the speed is genuine throughout.

Race 9
FRANCO JACKSON (4) is a sizzling beginner first-up for Andy Gath who should spear to the early lead with a minimum of fuss. That should leave THE BLACK FROST (1) with a tidy inside run either behind the leader or three pegs at very worst and REAL GRIT (6) with the task of punching the breeze throughout. Most of the rest will need a fair bit of luck but VINNI GAMBINO (8) is usually best served with the soft trip he’s likely to get here and KREMLIN (11) is quick enough over 200m that he can also win w/ the right cart into things late.

Race 10
It’s almost impossible to work out who’ll lead here following the scratching of FAST ROCKIN PAIGE (5) but INDIANA ANGEL (1) probably gets away as well as anything and should hold her rivals wide at least into the first turn. SEVILLE LADY (6) is another who can roll forward early while SHES PINKALICIOUS (8) will have options after the start and MELITA BROMAC (9) can either make a mid-race move or come with one run at them late.

Race 11
This is another race that’s quite difficult to map with most of the front line runners capable of going forward but the things we can rely upon are that SUPER ZECK (1) should get an economical inside run, MISTER BECKHAM (4) should race handy and both CHEVALS RACER (3) and I DREAMT IT (7) will be tough to beat regardless of where they lob in transit.

Race 12

There’s little doubt that LUKE HOBBS (6) is the quickest beginner off the front line here but MCRITA (2), WILLOW ROBYN (3) and BIG BANG PENNY (4) also begin well. If LUKE HOOBS (6) does cross the lot as expected he can either shoot for an all-the-way win or hand over to an appropriate rival while CRAZY DAVE (1) and MAJOR LANDSCAPE (5) will benefit most if there are real fireworks after the start.

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