Good Form Preview - Breeders Crown Semi-Finals Night @ Ballarat

Adam Hamilton's Preview

The Game Plan for Breeders Crown Semi-Final night – with Jason Bonnington  (@jasonbonnington)

As we mentioned on Vicbred Super Series semi-final night, semi-final racing where the first six home all get an equal berth in the final can lend itself to predictable racing. While some punters see that as a negative I love it because we can largely rely on the fact that the best horses will dominate proceedings and that the lack of pressure in races will make them sit-sprint affairs where those on the speed and on the inside will fare best for sure. With all that in mind I’m going to attack this evening’s star-studded programme by having a good crack at the Quad while also targeting four carefully selected Money Races.

Money Races

Race 2

The philosophy here – as with most races tonight – is fairly simple. Quite simply, I think that Frith (1) will hold the lead with Delightful Christian (8) on her back and while I do give the later horse some little hope of causing an upset, from a punting perspective I’m willing to stick w/ the favourite to win.

1/ 8/ 3,9,13. $30 gets 1000%
1/ 8/ 6,7. $5 gets 250%
1/ 3,9,13/ 8. $15 gets 500%

Race 5

There are three possible scenarios here. The most likely one will see Our Sky Major (1) hold the early lead and wither win or get bloused by Lettucerockthem (9) as a result. The others would see Major Secret (2) either cross and hold the top or cross and hand up to All Eyes On Us (5). Either way the big guns look to have this race between them.

1/ 2,5,9/ 2,5,9,10/ 2,5,9,10,11. $35 gets 129.63%
9/ 1,2,5/ 1,2,5/ 1,2,5,10,11. $10 gets 55.56%
5/ 1,2,9/ 1,2,9/ 1,2,9,10,11. $5 gets 27.78%

Race 6

Much like the first Money Race we’re relying on a pretty simple leader/ behind leader scenario here where Im Smouldering (2) should boot through and hold the top and Kiwi visitor Safedra (8) should hold her back and finish second as a result. There is some small hope that Safedra (8) will get shuffle back along the inside and miss the podium as a result so we’re having a saver for that scenario as well.

2/ 8/ 3,7,9,10. $120 gets 3000%
2/ 3,7,9,10/ 8. $60 gets 1500%
2/ 3,7,9,10/ 3,7,9,10. $20 gets 166.67%

Race 8

Every time I’ve been given airspace this week I’ve told the world I think Mindarie Priddy (7) is a moral both tonight and in next Sunday’s final and I’m not shying away from that stance now. I also think that whoever lobs her back tonight will almost certainly finish second and given I think that will either be Our Petite Soeur (2) or Te Amo Bromac (5) this is the way I’m playing.

7/ 2,5/ 2,5. $100 gets 5000%
7/ 2,5/ 1,8. $80 gets 2000%
7/ 2,5/ 3,4. $20 gets 500%

Quaddies (x4)

10/ 1,5,9/ 2/ 5. $20 gets 666.67%
10/ 1,5,9/ 3,8,10/ 5. $12 gets 133.33%
5,6,9,11,12,13/ 1,5,9/ 2/ 5. $60 gets 333.33%
5,6,9,11,12,13/ 1,5,9/ 3,8,10/ 5. $8 gets 14.81%



Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown repechages for 3YO’s run at Geelong on Thursday August 1, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown repechages for 2YO’s run at Ballarat on Tuesday July 30, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 3YO colts and geldings run at Kilmore on Thursday July 25, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 3YO fillies run at Ballarat on Wednesday July 24, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 2YO colts and geldings run at Bendigo on Tuesday July 23, simply click here.

To view the sectional splits of every horse engaged in the Breeders Crown heats for 2YO fillies run at Shepparton on Saturday July 20, simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers over the Breeders Crown Series so far.

Fastest Last Half – Our Sky Major: 26.50secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Our Sky Major: 55.20secs
Fastest Last Mile – Rogers Passion: 1:57.15

Sectional Superstar

Motor Smoker (Race 1 no.2) – $12 TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now

Motor Smoker may not be one of the favourites for the series but his strong repechage win proved he is a blowout hope for value punters.

Hi last half of 56.86sec and last quarter of 28.06sec show he is in the form of his career heading into his biggest test, from the kind barrier he could form part of some juicy multiple dividends.

Breeders Crown Semi-Final Night Trainer Talk – Belinda McCarthy

Best Chance

Bling It On (Race 1 no.11) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“He was probably a bit underdone last time with the road trip coming up and he will be a lot better for that,” she said.

“We don’t have the draw again and we have to take on Purdon but it will just be nice to get through the semis and try to draw a barrier in the final.

“They are all so talented but you have to go for these big races so clashes are inevitable. I really couldn’t split our three; even on ability they are all very similar. Taking into account all the runners it will end up being the horse with the best barrier and run that takes home the Crown because it’s a strong group.”

Others

All Eyes On Us (Race 5 no.5) – $7.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“The trial was good last week but it’s probably a bit harder this week with the draw and the field; I do think he will hopefully have some improvement left in him,” Belinda McCarthy said.

“He’s a lovely, big, horse who will probably train on as a three-year-old so he has plenty of potential.”

Lettucerockthem (Race 5 no.9) – $4.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“He’s a great horse with a lot of ability. When he gets a nice draw he is just super but with Purdon’s horses it might be a bit harder for him this week.

“Even when Paul Kahlefeldt had him before us, he showed the ability and he has just continued to step up.

Ideal Scott (Melton Sunday Race 7 no.5) –$1.70 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“We’ve probably got another hard field with the three best horses in the one heat but he is an up and coming horse who looks really smart.

“We’ve just been ecstatic to have a horse like him in the stable; he has a very big future in front of him.

“I think he has the potential to be right up there with the likes of Excel Stride, he’s only had two starts for us so it’s hard to know where his bottom is at, but he definitely shows us that he can keep improving and getting better.”

Speed Maps

Please find Speed Maps for All Nine Races tonight below. And remember, to get up-to-date Change Of Tactics info, follow @hrvinformer on Twitter.