Friday, August 2, 2013

Good Form Preview - 10 Of The Best @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

We have been one-batting a bit for the past couple of weeks but after a nice win on the Quaddie last night I’m super keen to parlay our profit at HQ tonight. Regardless of what people say, Tabcorp Park is as good a place to punt as any track in Australia and I’m confident that on a night where there may be no red figure favourites we can still make a dollar by smashing one  Best Bet, two Value runners, one Money Race and some Quads. So let’s get amongst it!
Best Bet
Our Icarus (Race 2 no. 11) $2.50
If the media outlets are right and I am wrong, then this bloke may start quite a bit longer than the $2.50 I’ve marked him at in today’s Herald Sun, so let’s establish some punting ground rules before we go any further.

* If he opens $4+ then have $25 Each Way

*If he opens less than $4 outlay $50 for the Win

Right, now that’s out of the way, the reason I’m so keen on this bloke tonight is pretty simple; he’s in form, he can do work in his races and there are big question marks over ALL of his major rivals tonight.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Pinevale Willpower (Race 5 no. 7) $7.50
I’m half-keen here. The scratching of In Monaco has played right onto the hands of this brilliant beginner because even though he’s drawn wide w/ two Lance Justice-trained horses inside him, I think he’ll spear his way to the early lead and from there he will only need class runners Bettor Give It (12) & Keayang Steamer (13) to engage in some cat-and-mouse tactics at the back of the field to steal a quarter and pinch a march on those more fancied rivals here tonight.

Lovable Larrikin (Race 6 no. 1) $7.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

The only drawback for this guy is if Fiery Achiever (5) crosses to the top and then hands up to stablemate Toulouse Lautrec (7) because that will leave him three back the poles but the fact of the matter is that he’s a natural ambush artist who will thrive on the soft trip he’ll receive tonight and given he’s still $2.38 the drum w/ TAB I think he’s the Each Way special of the night.

Best Roughie ($10 x $40)

Megasam (Race 10 no. 3) $9

The Claimer is a funny old race but if this bloke can find the top as expected he can either shoot for an all-the-way win or more likely hand-up to an appropriate rival and given he wasn’t far behind Toulouse Lautrec in a similar race to this four starts back and was better than he looked here last weekend I think he’s in the mix as a value Each way hope.

The Money Race - Race 1

There are only two possible scenarios I can envisage here. In the first, Sundons Promise (1) begins quickly, enjoys an unchallenged lead and wins with a leg in the air. In the other, they go ballistic early, break the field up and set the scene for Stoned I Am (11) to charge home over the top. With that in mind I’m having two Trifectas, expecting the first to win us some cabbage.

1,11/ 1,2,8,11/ 1,2,8,10,11. $36 gets 200%

1,11/ 1,2,8,11/ 6,7,12. $14 gets 77.78%

Quaddies (x2)

1,10,13/ 7,12,13/ 1,7,8,10,12/ 1. $45 gets 100%

1,10,13/ 7,12,13/ 1,7,8,10,12/ 3,6,10. $55 gets 40.74%

Star Trialler (Racing Tonight)

Tyler Bromac (Race 4 no. 6) $10

Tabcorp Park – July 23 – 2240M – 1st – 2:01.7 mile rate – 56.66 last half – 2nd Gumdrops. Click here to watch the trial on YouTube.

Despite mixing his form this preparation, the five-year-old gelding has gone through his classes and produced a gritty trial win to reel in Gumdrops at Melton on July 23. He has struck a very strong race tonight but may still be worth a small Each Way ticket.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Lance Justice

Best Chance

Toulouse Lautrec (Race 6 no.5) $5.50 – TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now

 “He can’t muster a good sprint so he just keeps winding up. He’ll be a top four finisher I would have thought. Toulouse Lautrec is flying; I’m hoping he can get out of the gate good enough to take it to Fiery Achiever and find the front and just run at very good sections.”


Motu Young Jacob (Race 1 no.7) $34

At the 1700 I was just looking forward to letting him run a bit. Last time he went okay but I did think he could have gone a bit better. He probably want’s a little break, he was really flying around the Great Southern Star but he will probably get a break shortly.

Mark Dennis (Race 5 no.3) $21

“He’s going pretty well, I actually think he’ll go very good tomorrow night. He is very quick out of the gate so he should lead and he should be very hard to beat. He was competing against some of the best last time and he always goes super fresh. 1700 can be hard first up but you know he can run 1:54, 1:55.

Machin Out (Race 5 no.4) $51

“He goes good, any time he can lead or sit close he is a chance. He’s probably a bit of a place chance because realistically he’s not going as well as the other horse.

Fiery Achiever (Race 6 no.5) $7.50 – TAB Fixed Odds Click here to bet on this horse now

“I do think Fiery Achiever will find the pegs first. He does actually go better with a trail but it’s really hard because he has to trail a horse that it still running,” Justice said.

Im Barney Rubble (Race 7 no.4) $10 & The Smiler (Race 7 no.5) $26

“Have A Bender held Im Barney Rubble last time they went around together but The Smiler is a bit quicker than Im Barney Rubble so I don’t really know. It’s a pretty hard race but I guess 1700 metres down the back straight probably gives the outside horse (The Smiler) the best chance of sling-shotting across.

“One thing with Im Barney Rubble is that he is definitely a much better leader than he is sitting in the field, that’s for sure.

“He (The Smiler) had a quarter-crack and we’ve fixed that up now. He’s private work has been good but he’ll still need the run in that company I would think.”

Onedin Hustler (Race 10 no.5) $8.50

“It looks like he’s probably only going to race here this week then head back to Adelaide to race. It’s not an over hard race and he is a definite place chance. He tries really hard.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Real Magic: 27.65secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Little Red Cloud: 55.76secs
Fastest Last Mile – Real Magic: 1:55.44

Sectional Superstar
Real Magic (Race 5 no.11) – $6 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“You don’t need many words to describe how this Geoff Webster recruit is travelling at the minute.

“He has proven himself adept from the front or back row and from the pegline or out wide, so if he can reproduce his 1:55.44 quickest last mile of the night, or even his 27.65 fastest last quarter, you can expect him to be rattling home at the end.

Speed Maps

Race 1
The start will be interesting here as each of Sundons Promise (1), Cold Sister (2), Retained (6) & Motu Young Jacob (7) have excellent gate speed but inside barriers are favoured here in squaregaiting races and if Sundons Promise (1) begins as well as she did last time out, she should be holding the lead. That will ensure Earl Harbour (8) gets a soft peg-line trip in transit while Stoned I Am (11) will probably lead any three side assault with Kyvalley Blur (10) and Chuck Wagon (12) following him home.

Race 2
Shandon Village (1), Amazing Kano (2) and Giveusagrin (5) are probably the fastest horses off the front line here although Shandon Village (1) is a sit-sprinter and should hand up to one of the other two, most likely Amazing Kano (2). Al those drawn off the second lien will need to do some work but Our Icarus (11) has proved he can sit parked and be competitive at his past couple so he looks the horse most likely to affect a mid-race move.

Race 3
Cumulatively, this is one of the slowest front lines you’ll see in a 1720m race at Melton, but having said that, Lively Princess (3), Magical Molly (5), Blue Seelster (6) and Paintball (7) are all go-forward horses so there should be plenty of heat on in the early/mid stages of the race. Whoever leads, expect Paintball (7) to sit outside of them with Alina (1) and Bellasario (8) enjoying soft peg-line trips while Gumdrops (10) and Penny Union (11) will need the speed on throughout to figure from the back.

Race 4
The early speed should come from both Echeveria (1) and Peaces Of You (5) here but expect the former horse to hold the latter wide if he begins as well as he can. If Echeveria (1) does hold the top then Illawong Kath (8) should lob a sweet, trouble free run in behind the speed with Tyler Bromac (6) favoured to push forward in search of the breeze. Class runners Carpenters Daughter (10) and Cheer The Lady (13) will probably follow each other into the contest from their unfavourable gates but both are good enough to do work in transit and still figure at the knock.

Race 5
The scratching of In Monaco has turned this race on its head. Now most if the early speed will come from Lance Justice-trained duo Mark Dennis (3) and Machin Out (4) along with sizzling beginner Pinevale Willpower (7). Expect Mark Dennis (3) to find the pegs first but he will be heavily pressured by Pinevale Willpower (7) who looks most likely to find the top if Alford so chooses. Class runners Keayang Steamer (13) and Bettor Give It (12) have both drawn out the back but expect the former to afford the latter a nice cart into the race if he doesn’t make a mid-race move off in search of the breeze. Real Magic (11) is the other key runner but as a natural sit-sprinter he’ll need some favours in transit to overwhelm some more-than-handy types.

Race 6
This is a terrific tactical affair where Lance Justice-trained duo Fiery Achiever (5) and Toulouse Lautrec (7) hold most of the early keys.  Both have terrific early speed and if you believe Lance then Fiery Achiever (5) will likely hand up to Toulouse Lautrec (7) if circumstances play into their hands. Either way sit-sprint specialists Lovable Larrikin (1) and Donegal Delight (8) will get very economical journeys which will suit their racing styles. Washmepockets (12) and Composed (10) are the enforcers here and both will have to do work from their second lien draws while Kotare Roland (13) is the blowout if they tear at each other up front tonight.

Race 7
This is yet another intriguing race where connections have indicated that Restrepo (1) will be doing everything in his power to hold the early lead but Have A Bender (3), Im Barney Rubble (4) and brilliant beginner The Smiler (5) will all be having a crack at crossing him into the first turn. If Restrepo (1) leads early on then the race is his to lose and Wartime Sweetheart (8) will get the run he needs to figure in the placings but if one of the others gets across him and the heat is on early then Abettorpunt (6) and Motu Crusader (10) will get their chance to come home all over the top from well back in transit.

Race 8
Zedalite (2) is the quickest beginner off the front line here and he should work to the early lead as a result with Gluteus Major (1) securing a sweet run right on his back and Michael Thomas (8) three back on the poles. Brylin Crescent (5) and Military Precision (9) are both natural enforcers who should dispute the position outside the leader while most of the other key hopes including Tendaho (10) and El Paco (12) will be relying on plenty of early speed to swamp their rivals from the rear.

Race 9
Tennaya (2) is a terrific beginner who looks a 90% chance of leading these around which means Dreamy Smile (1) and Sophies Ideal (8) should both secure favourable peg-line journeys throughout. No Tomorrow (11) and Across The Way (12) both played enforcer in heat wins for this event and both should be on their bikes with a mid-race move at some stage tonight while Beachstar (10) looks the most dangerous late closer after finishing off nicely in his heat from the rear.

Race 10

This is another tricky race to read where Megasam (3), Onedin Hustler (5) and Pete Of Pan (7) are probably the quickest beginners but Megasam (3) is the only one we can be certain will be going forward early. Eliminator (2) and Melpark Maestro (6) are both classy conveyances that don’t begin that well but like to come with one searching run while Jukebox Music (10) is the sit-sprint star who’ll be finishing all over the top if the speed is on throughout.

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