The Game Plan for Cranbourne - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight's Carnbourne card is marked by small fields and what should be short priced favourites but I'm not sure all of them are quite the morals many would have you believe. Having said that, I am comfortable targetting two shortish favourites and an absolute $1.04 shot in a skinny All-Up while also smashing a range of comparably skinny Quads and four Money Races which won't make us rich but should turn a profit.
Best Bets/All-Up ($50)
$50 on this All-Up should get you back around $150.
Indi Bapu (Race 5 no. 10) $2
McNiven (Race 6 no. 6) $1.70
Chilli Palmer (Race 8 no. 5) $1.10
The Money Races (Flexi Trifectas/ $50 per race)
Race 4
4,7/ 1,4,5,7/ 1,4,5,7. $36 gets 300%
4,7/ 1,4,5,7/ 3,6,8. $14 gets 77.78%
Race 5
10/ 1,4/ 1,4,8,12. $24 gets 400%
10/ 1,4/ 2,7,9. $12 gets 200%
10/ 8,12/ 1,4,8,12. $12 gets 200%
10/ 8,12/ 2,7,9. $2 gets 33.33%
Race 7
4/ 1/ 3,7,8. $20 gets 333.33%
1,3,4,7,8 Boxed. $30 gets 50%
Quaddies
4,7/ 10/ 6/ 1,4. $40 gets 1000%
4,7/ 10/ 6/ 3,7,8. $30 gets 500%
1,5/ 10/ 6/ 1,4. $20 gets 500%
1,5/ 10/ 6/ 3,7,8. $10 gets 166.67%
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Friday, August 30, 2013
Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen @ HQ
Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview
The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
At first look, tonight’s final Metropolitan programme of the season looks like almost too easy to be true but on further inspection it will take some effort to make it a winning night. I plan to make my coin w/ a slightly timid but still potentially lucrative Formula 3 w/ my best four bets on the card, while I’ll also be targeting two Money Races, two Exotic Speed Map Specials and a whole range of Quads to suit the tricky races it will cover.
Best Bets/ Formula 3
To be honest, I could have included a number of other horses
into this Multi but when it came down to brass knuckles, these are the ones I
can’t see getting rolled. Having said that, two of my wagers are on horses
either first or second up in Oz so I’m allowing for the possibility that one of
them could get rolled by having a Formula 3 which will cost. A $50 outlay will
get you the F3 12.5 times.She is one of the two I’m plumping for virtually sight unseen. A talented Sandgroper who has just been transferred to Emma Stewart she finished off a recent trial victory in a sizzling 55.6-seconds. Also on her side is the fact that there are no real starts among her rivals and that she has shown enough gate speed across the Nullarbor to make full use of her polemarking draw.
I’ve probably been a little generous marking this guy at $3.50 because based on recent form he’s at least half a class better than this lot. That is not to disparage his rivals but he finished fourth behind Bitobliss and Smoken Up last start so to suggest this is a drop in grade is something of an understatement for mine.
This filly was absolutely outstanding on debut then probably ran into a budding star last time out at Cranbourne. She ;lacks gate speed so the draw will not be an issue and with no genuine guns among her rivals I think she’ll win w/ ease.
This is another somewhat tricky race but to my mind if this guy can brain Faraway Man who would himself brain anything else in this field he really should be winning here. As I say, this one is also not without risk but I’m pretty bullish and hopefully we’ll have the three winners we need by this stage anyway!
The Money Races
Race 3 (Flexi Trifecta) – Click here to bet on this race nowBy far the most likely scenario here is that Earl Harbour (3) will make full use of his draw by finding the early lead and he will dictate affairs until the heat goes on late. At that juncture the one who’ll be charging out after him is Kyvalley Blur (8). There is some chance that Earl Harbour (3) will hand up in transit but either way I think the two big guns will fight it out or finish first and third at very worst.
3,8/ 3,8/ 1,6,7,9. $40 gets 500%
3,8/ 1,6,7,9/ 3,8. $10 gets 125%It’s fantastic to see that TAB are supporting this race w/ a $25,000 First 4 Jackpot and fortunately it’s a race ideally suited to that punting medium. Basically I’m tipping that the cream will really rise to the top here w/ Our Femme Fatale (13), Tandias Bromac (7), Spokeswoman (11) and Rogers Passion (8) likely to fill the top three placings at least, so I’ve staggered a quartet of First 4’s around that happening and I’ve had a genuine crack w/ a bigger than normal $100 outlay.
7,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,6,7,8,9,11,13. $55 gets
114.58%
8,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,6,7,8,9,11,13. $24 gets 50%7,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 3,4,5,10,12. $15 gets 25%
8,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 7,8,11,13/ 3,4,5,10,12. $6 gets 10%
Exotic Speed Map Specials
This is a new category of bet for the #goodform blog and I
must stress these are far more speculative wagers than the Money Races above
because, essentially, we are relying on specific speed map scenarios to play
out at the start.In this race I’m expecting On The Razzle (4) to cross over and head off Bettor Give It (1). If that happens we’re in w/ a big winning chance.
1,4/ 1,4/ 2,5,7,8,10,11,12. $28 gets 200%
1,4/ 2,5,7,8,10,11,12/ 1,4. $22 gets 157.14%It’s a very similar scenario here with Franco Jackson (4) likely to burn across the face of the field and head off The Black Frost (1) early on. If that scenario prevails I think they’ll dominate the race.
1,4/ 1,4/ 8. $10 gets 500%
1,4/ 8/ 1,4. $4 gets 200%1,4/ 1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7,11. $24 gets 200%
1,4/ 2,3,5,6,7,11/ 1,4. $12 gets 100%
The Quaddies (x4) – Click here to have a punt on the Quaddie
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 12/ 7,8,11,13/ 1. $20 gets 83.33%1,2,5,8,12,13/ 12/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,4,5,11,12. $30 gets 25%
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 1,2,8,9,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 1. $20 gets 16.67%
1,2,5,8,12,13/ 1,2,8,9,11/ 7,8,11,13/ 2,4,5,11,12. $30 gets 5%
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Shepparton
The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
I’ve given this programme the full treatment and while I’m
not sure we unearthed too much gold I’m still pretty bullish about our two Best
Bets, plus the Money Race and out trio of Quads. This is the kind of programme
where I’ll be sweating on Fixed Odds markets for the remainder of my bets so if
you’re keen on some overs, follow me on Twitter and I’ll be dishing out my
thoughts right throughout the night.
Best Bets
Smiling Spirit (Race 1 no. 10) $1.60
This bloke faces some handy ones here but he was more than
competitive through the Breeders Crown series and even beat a few in what was a
crackerjack final on Super Sunday. It’s always tough to know how well they’ll
back up after such a brutal campaign but if he’s anywhere near his bets he’ll
be winning here for sure.
Striding Success (Race 5 no. 8) $3
Luck will play a part for this guy but he has been in
terrific form and so long as Travelnfirstclass (10) doesn’t pinch a
march on him I think he’ll be too good.
The Money Race – Race 1 ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
As mentioned above, I’m very keen on Smiling Spirit (10) here
and almost as bullish that Just Knew (7) will run a drum. Outside of
those top two it’s a pretty skinny race so I’m playing accordingly and hoping
we can get multiple units of a tidy little dividend.
10/ 7/ 1,2,6. $26 gets 866.67%
10/ 1,2,6/ 7. $12 gets 400%
10/ 1,2,6/ 1,2,6. $12 gets 100%
Quaddies
2,11,12/ 8,10/ 1,9,11/ 1,4,5,8,10,12. $72 gets 66.67%
2,11,12/ 1,2/ 1,9,11/ 1,4,5,8,10,12. $17 gets 15.74%
2,11,12/
5,6,7/ 1,9,11/ 1,4,5,8,10,12. $11 gets 10.19%
Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Hamilton
The Game Plan for Hamilton – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
Hamilton is yet another one of Victoria’s genuine state-of-the-art tracks where they run sizzling time, particularly for their final halves. I really like today’s meeting as I think there are two very solid Best Bets we can couple in an All-Up plus a couple of great value players we can attack on an Each way basis. I’m also very keen on some Quads today and w/ several hopes in each leg we may get a fairly healthy result.
This should be a case of lead and win. I know his winning record is far from outstanding and I usually shy away from horses who’ve saluted twice in 30 starts but he is very genuine and over the short course with a lack of obvious pressure this looks his to lose.
This guy has a very ordinary figure formline but he’s actually not going too badly all things considered and given he looks your likely leader over the short course in a race where it’s hard to find either pressure or dangerous swoopers I’m more than happy to back him Each way here for sure. He also boasts by far the quickest mile rate for the distance of 1:56.4 so back him at the odds.
1,3,5,10,12/ 1,8,9,10,11/ 4,6,8,9/ 1,6,7,9. $40 gets 10%
Hamilton is yet another one of Victoria’s genuine state-of-the-art tracks where they run sizzling time, particularly for their final halves. I really like today’s meeting as I think there are two very solid Best Bets we can couple in an All-Up plus a couple of great value players we can attack on an Each way basis. I’m also very keen on some Quads today and w/ several hopes in each leg we may get a fairly healthy result.
Best Bets/All-Up
One Wise Man (Race 2 no. 5) $2This should be a case of lead and win. I know his winning record is far from outstanding and I usually shy away from horses who’ve saluted twice in 30 starts but he is very genuine and over the short course with a lack of obvious pressure this looks his to lose.
Maorisfavouritesun (Race 3 no. 7) $2.20
I’m not sure what price they’ll be opening this outstanding
prospect at but as long as it’s not super silly I’ll be taking it. Put simply,
he can still make mistakes in his races but if he does everything right they
won’t see which way he went, even off the 30m handicap here today.
Best Value
Lockins Art (Race 4 no. 3) $17This guy has a very ordinary figure formline but he’s actually not going too badly all things considered and given he looks your likely leader over the short course in a race where it’s hard to find either pressure or dangerous swoopers I’m more than happy to back him Each way here for sure. He also boasts by far the quickest mile rate for the distance of 1:56.4 so back him at the odds.
Cheesy Grin (Rave 7 no. 7) $6.50
I love situations where a horse starts at $1.60 one week,
like this bloke did last time out, they fail for whatever reason and then open
up at bloated odds the very next week. It’s important to note that while he
didn’t win last time out he wasn’t too bad either and given his roughish pacing
action he’ll thrive coming back to this wonderful track where he’s unbeaten in
two runs to date.
Quaddies
1,3,5,10,12/ 4,6,7/ 4,6,8,9/ 1,6,7,9. $60 gets 25%1,3,5,10,12/ 1,8,9,10,11/ 4,6,8,9/ 1,6,7,9. $40 gets 10%
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ Mildura
The Game Plan for Mildura – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Whats Amy Got (Race 2 no. 2) $4
The fact that this mare has superior South Australian form to her major rival here in Accessable (3) is good enough for me, particularly if the $4 quoted in today’s Herald Sun holds up.
1,3,4/ 1,2,3,4,6/ 3/ 2,3,4,7,8. $50 gets 66.67%
There’s virtually no chance we’ll be getting $5 about this bloke first-up for Shayne Cramp because if he replicates his recent Mildura trial win when ripping home in 58.1 and beating handy rivals by 45m they will not roll him here.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Whats Amy Got (Race 2 no. 2) $4
The fact that this mare has superior South Australian form to her major rival here in Accessable (3) is good enough for me, particularly if the $4 quoted in today’s Herald Sun holds up.
Caulonia Babe (Race 5 no. 1) $4
This mare finds herself in a deep and even race but if she
holds the top as I expect her to then I think she is the horse to beat.
The Money Race - Race 1
This is a race where most horses can be ruled out and the
big guns should come to the fore. You could even have First 4’s w/ the same
numbers here and still get the job done but I’m playing safe w/ a couple of
low-risk Tricks.
1,2,10/ 1,2,10/ 1,2,5,8,10,11. $24 gets 100%
1,2,10/ 5,8,11/ 1,2,5,8,10,11. $26 gets 72.22%
Quaddies
1,3,4/ 1,2,3,4,6/ 3/ 1. $50 gets 333.33%1,3,4/ 1,2,3,4,6/ 3/ 2,3,4,7,8. $50 gets 66.67%
Star Trialler
Glasscutterspirit (Race 3 no. 5) $5There’s virtually no chance we’ll be getting $5 about this bloke first-up for Shayne Cramp because if he replicates his recent Mildura trial win when ripping home in 58.1 and beating handy rivals by 45m they will not roll him here.
Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Maryborough
The Game Plan for Maryborough – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
Today’s meeting is a celebration of the underdog. Nicknamed
‘Humbletonian Day’ today’s card will not feature one horse who has previously
saluted first so every winner will be doing it for the very first time. There’s
no doubt it will be a tricky card but I’ve stuck with three horses who should
almost certainly have won a race by now as my Best Bets while I’ve also located
one at a little bit of value along w/ three risky but potentially lucrative
Quads.
Best Bets/ Formula 2
Nobetterthanthis (Race 4 no. 2) $3
This filly is not racing as well as she was a little earlier
in the season but this race really suits and if she hasn’t gone completely off
the boil then she’s the one to beat here for sure.
Dentona (Race 7 no. 11) $4.50
There are a number of ‘Question Mark’ runners in this field
who may surprise us w/ their class but on exposed form this bloke, who has been
close up in some pretty handy races, is absolutely the testing material,
awkward draw and all.
Burninupthestarzzz (Race 9 no. 3) $1.50
This bloke is the one dead-set certainty of the day. A
brilliant beginner, he’ll be in front after 50m and from there it should be a
procession given he’s mixed it well w/ some of Australasia’s best 3YO pacers
this term.
Best Value
Lochlee Jacob (Race 5 no. 6) $5
This guy just keeps knocking on the door in good class races
and if the $5 holds up he’s well worth a lash.
Quaddies
2/ 2,4,5,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,9,10/ 11. $40 gets 133.33%
2/ 2,4,5,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,9,10/ 1,3,4,8,10. $30 gets 20%
1,5,7,10,12/ 2,4,5,6,8,11/ 1,2,6,9,10/ 11. $30 gets 50%
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Good Form Preview - Tuesday Night @ Lords
The Game Plan for Bendigo – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
Tonight is a night where there’s something for everyone on what looks a pretty juicy punting card at Lords Raceway Bendigo. The simplest way to make some coin will be a skinny but almost risk-free All-Up while those hoping for a bigger result can also attack one Best Value and one Best Roughie bet along w/ a nice little Money Race and some Quads.
This bloke can be a little rough in his gait at times but he has speed, strength and the necessary intimidation factor to work past these early and lead them a merry dance. One great thing about tracks like Bendigo is that the best horse will normally get their chance to win and in this case he is definitely the best pacer engaged.
This guy has stayed under notice since providing the run of the race in a Vicbred Platinum final at Melton three starts back. On that occasion he came from the clouds to be beaten by 5m and the fact that all three runners who beat him home there in Sophies Ideal, Tennaya and Art prevails have all won since only adds to the strength of his formline.
This guy is what I refer to as a dead-set peg-line warrior. That is to suggest he always runs his best races when able to make a sharp left at the start, enjoy an ice-cold trip in transit and explode at his rivals with a 300m sprint. Tonight he should either be three or four pegs in running w/ little chance of winning but if he sees daylight last then he can run a drum at giant place-only odds.
5/ 2,3,8/ 2,3,8/ 1,2,3,4,6,8. $36 gets 150%
5/ 2,3,8/ 1,4,6/ 1,2,3,4,6,8. $14 gets 38.89%
6/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 8. $12 gets 200%
5,8,9,10/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 4. $48 gets 200%
5,8,9,10/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 8. $10 gets 41.67%
TAB.COM.AU HITS & MEMORIES
MOVE OF THE WEEK:
Young August 23: Western Burner $7.50 into $2.90 (unplaced)
($300 e/w @ $7.50/ $600 @ $4.80/ $500 @ $3.60).
Horsham August 22: Jazz King $2.80 into $1.80 (1st);
Gold Coast August 23: Elzar $3 into $1.70 (1st);
Melton August 23: Victors Delight $8 into $3.60 (1st);
Newcastle
Albion
Park
Menangle August 20: Borat $21 into $6.50 (unplaced);
Young August 23: Haresa Winner $9 into $3.60 (unplaced);
Gloucester Park August 23: J Walker
Menangle August 24: Bennys Ace $8.50 into $3.50 (unplaced).
Menangle August 20: Giving Its Best $1000 at $8 ($7000+);
Newcastle
Menangle August 24: Rule Like A King $500 at $8.50 ($3750+);
Albion
Park
MISSES:
Redcliffe August 21: Praze An Beeble $10000 at $1.20;
Gloucester
Park
Menangle August 19: Better Than Max $4000 at $1.75;
Newcastle
Bankstown August 23: Pacific Paradise $4000 at $1.45.
Tonight is a night where there’s something for everyone on what looks a pretty juicy punting card at Lords Raceway Bendigo. The simplest way to make some coin will be a skinny but almost risk-free All-Up while those hoping for a bigger result can also attack one Best Value and one Best Roughie bet along w/ a nice little Money Race and some Quads.
Best Bets/ All-Up ($50)
Colby Reilly (Race 3 no. 5) $1.80This bloke can be a little rough in his gait at times but he has speed, strength and the necessary intimidation factor to work past these early and lead them a merry dance. One great thing about tracks like Bendigo is that the best horse will normally get their chance to win and in this case he is definitely the best pacer engaged.
Our Dreamlover (Race 5 no. 5) $1.80
I’m on record everywhere suggesting this season’s gun
three-year-old trotters are set to revolutionise the sport and this bloke is
definitely one of those guns. He has strolled in every time he’s taken on older
horses this term and from the front line draw it would take a bad error or an
incredible performance form one of his rivals to see him go under tonight.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Beachstar (Race 6 no. 5) $9This guy has stayed under notice since providing the run of the race in a Vicbred Platinum final at Melton three starts back. On that occasion he came from the clouds to be beaten by 5m and the fact that all three runners who beat him home there in Sophies Ideal, Tennaya and Art prevails have all won since only adds to the strength of his formline.
Best Roughie ($50 Place)
Tere T (Race 7 no. 9) $24This guy is what I refer to as a dead-set peg-line warrior. That is to suggest he always runs his best races when able to make a sharp left at the start, enjoy an ice-cold trip in transit and explode at his rivals with a 300m sprint. Tonight he should either be three or four pegs in running w/ little chance of winning but if he sees daylight last then he can run a drum at giant place-only odds.
The Money Race ($50 Flexi First 4’s)
Race 35/ 2,3,8/ 2,3,8/ 1,2,3,4,6,8. $36 gets 150%
5/ 2,3,8/ 1,4,6/ 1,2,3,4,6,8. $14 gets 38.89%
Quaddies (x4)
6/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 4. $30 gets 500%6/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 8. $12 gets 200%
5,8,9,10/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 4. $48 gets 200%
5,8,9,10/ 5/ 1,5,6,7,9,12/ 8. $10 gets 41.67%
TAB.COM.AU HITS & MEMORIES
MOVE OF THE WEEK:
Young August 23: Western Burner $7.50 into $2.90 (unplaced)
($300 e/w @ $7.50/ $600 @ $4.80/ $500 @ $3.60).
WHERE THERE’S SMOKE
THERE’S FIRE:
Cobram August 21: Beticanfly $8 into $4.50 (1st);Horsham August 22: Jazz King $2.80 into $1.80 (1st);
Gold Coast August 23: Elzar $3 into $1.70 (1st);
Melton August 23: Victors Delight $8 into $3.60 (1st);
LEFT IT IN THE BAG:
Menangle August 20: Borat $21 into $6.50 (unplaced);
Young August 23: Haresa Winner $9 into $3.60 (unplaced);
Menangle August 24: Bennys Ace $8.50 into $3.50 (unplaced).
HITS:
Ballarat August 24: Badewitz $10000 at $1.75 ($7500+
return);Menangle August 20: Giving Its Best $1000 at $8 ($7000+);
Menangle August 24: Rule Like A King $500 at $8.50 ($3750+);
MISSES:
Redcliffe August 21: Praze An Beeble $10000 at $1.20;
Menangle August 19: Better Than Max $4000 at $1.75;
Monday, August 26, 2013
Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul
The Game Plan for Warragul – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
Today’s meeting at Warragul is a tough way to start the final week of what has been an extraordinary season but the generally small fields should ensure that most horses get their chance to win. It is a day where I’d prefer to have something Each Way on a few runners at an OK price than put my faith in anything at red figure odds while also having a good dip at the Quads as per usual.
This mare did improve her stocks with an excellent win on Friday night at Melton but the main reason I want a piece of her is that I can see Western Rockstar (1) starting very short on the back of his super first-up win for Andy Gath and he’s just the kind of horse you always want to take on if you can. That’s not to say he won’t blow these away, but as a punter I want to pick one to beat him and the nice mare above is clearly the major threat today.
5,6/ 6,9/ 2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8. $20 gets 25%
This daughter of Grinfromeartoear has had four trials in preparation for her debut but it was her most recent hit-out when finishing close-up behind Holdonsu in a 59-sec final half that recommends her most strongly for today’s very winnable assignment.
Today’s meeting at Warragul is a tough way to start the final week of what has been an extraordinary season but the generally small fields should ensure that most horses get their chance to win. It is a day where I’d prefer to have something Each Way on a few runners at an OK price than put my faith in anything at red figure odds while also having a good dip at the Quads as per usual.
Best Value ($20 Each Way)
Lady Taras Bulba (Race 4 no. 3) $5This mare did improve her stocks with an excellent win on Friday night at Melton but the main reason I want a piece of her is that I can see Western Rockstar (1) starting very short on the back of his super first-up win for Andy Gath and he’s just the kind of horse you always want to take on if you can. That’s not to say he won’t blow these away, but as a punter I want to pick one to beat him and the nice mare above is clearly the major threat today.
Walky Talky (Race 6 no. 8) $4
Prior to heading for a break this bloke was racing in pretty
good company and his second-up effort when darting through along the sprit lane
and only beaten by Mor Laag, who had all the momentum wide out on the track,
was very encouraging indeed. He’ll probably have to wait for the sprint lane
again here but this field is not strong and he should go close with even luck
in transit.
Alina (Race 7 no. 4) $5
This is a tricky one, because the above mare has very
limited gate speed and that can be a huge issue on this circuit but due to that
fact we may get better odds than we’d otherwise expect. Simply put, she is
better than her rivals here today and if the speed is genuine and she gets her
chance to wind up at them late, they should not hold her out and the $5 will
look juicy indeed,
Quaddies (x2)
1,3/ 6,9/ 2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8. $80 gets 100%5,6/ 6,9/ 2,4,5,8/ 1,2,4,5,8. $20 gets 25%
Star Triallers
Little Bit Sassy (Race 8 no. 3) $3.50This daughter of Grinfromeartoear has had four trials in preparation for her debut but it was her most recent hit-out when finishing close-up behind Holdonsu in a 59-sec final half that recommends her most strongly for today’s very winnable assignment.
Sunday, August 25, 2013
Good Form Preview - Sunday Sesh @ Shep
The Game Plan for Shepparton - with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I believe I've already said on many occasions that Shepparton is my favourite and most profitable track on which to punt so while there's very little gold on offer today I still feel confident there's some money to be made. I'm attacking one Best Bet at a price, one Best Vlaue I think should be much shorter, a Money Race and the Quad.
Best Bet ($50 Win)
Dobop (Race 6 no. 2) $3.20
This mare is only second up from a break but she gets everything to suit here. The draw is ideal as she should lead, the trip is ideal as she thrives over the short course and the competition works because she's the class factor, Back her straight out and hope you get better than even money odds.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Hoppyjoe (Race 5 no. 2) $11
This mare was obviously going better a few runs ago but I'm willing to give her one more chance over the short course here as she should lead as well and whether she goes for an all-the-wa win or hands up in transit, the short course trip and lack of obvious pressure will play in her favour.
The Money Race - Race 6
As mentioned earlier, I am very keen on Dobop (2) here and I also think it will be a peg-dominated affair. Caribbean Striker (9) is the only risk for mine so play two Trifectas and expect a result.
2/ 1,8,9/ 1,8,9. $42 gets 700%
9/ 2/ 1,8,9. $8 gets 266.67%
The Quads (x2)
1,3,4,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,8/ 2/ 1,8,9. $72 gets 85.71%
1,3,4,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,8/ 9/ 1,8,9. $28 gets 33.33%
I believe I've already said on many occasions that Shepparton is my favourite and most profitable track on which to punt so while there's very little gold on offer today I still feel confident there's some money to be made. I'm attacking one Best Bet at a price, one Best Vlaue I think should be much shorter, a Money Race and the Quad.
Best Bet ($50 Win)
Dobop (Race 6 no. 2) $3.20
This mare is only second up from a break but she gets everything to suit here. The draw is ideal as she should lead, the trip is ideal as she thrives over the short course and the competition works because she's the class factor, Back her straight out and hope you get better than even money odds.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Hoppyjoe (Race 5 no. 2) $11
This mare was obviously going better a few runs ago but I'm willing to give her one more chance over the short course here as she should lead as well and whether she goes for an all-the-wa win or hands up in transit, the short course trip and lack of obvious pressure will play in her favour.
The Money Race - Race 6
As mentioned earlier, I am very keen on Dobop (2) here and I also think it will be a peg-dominated affair. Caribbean Striker (9) is the only risk for mine so play two Trifectas and expect a result.
2/ 1,8,9/ 1,8,9. $42 gets 700%
9/ 2/ 1,8,9. $8 gets 266.67%
The Quads (x2)
1,3,4,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,8/ 2/ 1,8,9. $72 gets 85.71%
1,3,4,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,5,8/ 9/ 1,8,9. $28 gets 33.33%
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ Bray
The Game Plan for
Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Ballarat meeting is actually quite tough but
hopefully we’ve found something for everyone with two Best Bets, two Money
Races and two Quads.
Best Bets/All-Up
($50)
This All-Up should snare you around $200 for a $50 outlay.
Dell Boy (Race 1 no.
10) $2.80
He’s not completely foolproof but this bloke is pretty
stable for a 2YO Trotter and if he performs to the best of his ability he’ll be
too strong and too classy for this lot at what should be better than even money
odds.
Badewitz (Race 5 no.
11) $1.50
Time and time again we see handy 3YO’s tackle moderate
open-age races and come away with the price. Tonight, the above pacer, who has
plenty of talent based on his excellent Breeders Crown repechage placing at
Geelong, will take on a pretty average field of C1’s and should be a mile too
good for them, poor draw and all.
The Money Races
Race 4This is a great betting race as there are four almost-equal winning hopes who should dominate and only two other runners who can fall into third. I’m keen here and I think the right 1-2-3 combo could pay pretty well.
1,6,7,8 Boxed. $36 gets 150%
1,6,7,8/ 1,6,7,8/ 2,9. $14 gets 58.33%
Race 5
So much of our night will be based on Badewitz (11) winning that it seems almost cruel to load more
weight on his back here but I’m so keen he’ll salute that I’m taking these
Trifectas too.11/ 1,2,7/ 1,2,7. $30 gets 500%
11/ 1,2,7/ 5,6,10. $20 gets 222.22%
The Quads (x2)
1,6,7,8/ 11/ 2,6/ 2,5,8. $40 gets 166.67%1,6,7,8/ 11/ 3,4,5,7,9/ 2,5,8. $60 gets gets 100%
Friday, August 23, 2013
Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ
Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview
The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
If I’m being completely honest, this meeting was one of the hardest Friday night cards to work out I’ve seen in some time. However it’s also one of the most exciting. Each of the three feature races look terrific betting propositions from an exotic perspective while there are two runners at OK odds I think can win their respective races. To top it all off there’s a very fun Quad here too, so sit back, load up and get some extra folding for the thoroughbreds tomorrow.
Best Value Bets ($50 Win)
Narra Operative (Race 4 no. 10) $3.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I could easily be accused of falling in love w/ this horse and to be honest I probably couldn’t deny there’s some truth in the allegation but the only reason I hold him in such high regard is that this campaign at least, he simply doesn’t know when to quit and he’s winning – and running monster races – even when he shouldn’t. Tonight he meets a very even field who pretty much all have some conviction and he simply doesn’t so back him straight out and fall in love like I have.
Exciteusinthecity (Race 8 no. 7) $3.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is another pacer I have an extraordinary amount o f time for. He has had a wonderful season so far but the best pointer for this race was his win two starts back where he parked outside Im Barney Rubble (who’ll take on the FFA pacers tonight) and put him to the sword in a 55.3sec final half. Tonight, he’ll either find the front or park outside a horse like Fiery Achiever, who is lengths below Im Barney Rubble for ability. I have respect for Donegal Delight (9), Kotare Roland (6) and Stirling Point (4) but just think our bloke will be in the right spot at the right time and prove a class above.
Pinevale Willpower (Race 9 no. 6) $3.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This one has more question marks over its head than the other two because he has been struggling from poor draws lately but he draws to lead here over his favoured short course journey and with Thirst Mach scratched I can find neither a genuine enforcer nor a super sit-sprinter that will make his life tough at any stage in transit. As I say, you will have to take on trust but if he’s paying $3 he’s worth a straight out lash.
The Money Races
Race 3 – Click here to bet on this race now
We won’t retire off this Money Race but if Earl Of Mot (7) bullies his way to the mid-race lead as expected then we should get some folding for our other bets and Quads.
7/ 5,6/ 5,6. $20 gets 1000%
7/ 5,6/ 1,2,3,4.$20 gets 250%
5,6/ 7/ 5,6. $5 gets 250%
5,6/ 7/ 1,2,3,4. $5 gets 62.5%
Race 5– Click here to bet on this race now
This is a terrific race where only race luck should separate Chilli Palmer (1), Gotta Go Yankee (9), Hilltop Hustler (11) and Nowitzki (12). They are all coming from divergent formlines so there’s every chance one may blow the others away but so long as they fight the race pout we’ll be winning here for sure.
1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12,13. $36 gets 100%
1,9,11,12/ 1,9,11,12/ 4,7,8,10. $14 gets 29.17%
Race 7 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I can see some serious early fireworks here with two Lance Justice-trained runners on either side of Melpark Major (3) at the start and most of the big guns drawn poorly on the second line. Because of that fact I’m thinking Bitobliss (13) can sit back, smoke the pipe and use his superior turn of speed to either win or run second at very worst. I’m sticking with the big guns outside of him and hoping for some value on the podium.
13/ 3,10,12/ 3,10,11,12. $27.50 gets 305.56%
3,10,12/ 13/ 3,10,11,12. $13.50 gets 150%
13/ 3,10,12/ 1,9. $6 gets 100%
3,10,12/ 13/ 1,9. $3 gets 50%
The Quads (x4) – Click here to bet on tonight's Quaddie now
I’m taking a very aggressive approach here by labelling Narra Operative in the first leg and hoping for value from there on in. If the thought of going out in the first leg of the Quad makes you sick to the stomach then play a little wider but I’m worried that there’ll be no value if we do.
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,10,12/ 3,12,13. $72 gets 150%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 2,3,4,6,7,8/ 3,12,13. $18 gets 25%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 1,9,10,12/ 10,11. $8 gets 25%
10/ 1,9,11,12/ 2,3,4,6,7,8/ 10,11. $2 gets 4.17%
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Alan Tubbs
Best Chance
Melpark Major (Race 7 no. 3) $3.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s obviously drawn better than the other two (Smoken Up and Bitobliss) and when you get that advantage you absolutely go forward and try to use it. He’s not 100 percent wound up but good horses like him don’t need much work and his first few runs in a campaign almost have to be his best because it doesn’t get any easier. It’s just amazing after all that he’s been through that we’re still going around and he’ll acquit himself well as he always does.”
Others
Bettor Believe It (Race 6 no. 9) $5 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I really thought we’d run first or second last week but things didn’t quite go to plan and she actually did a good job running fourth. She’s not the most talented horse going around but she’s a very good soldier and if I had three or four more of her I wouldn’t be complaining. I’ve got no doubt she’s going to win an MO at some stage and there’s no reason why this won’t be the one.”
Donegal Delight (Race 8 no. 9) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It took me a little while to get a handle on this mare but I understand her better now. Basically, the longer you can keen her comfortable (in the run) the better she’ll finish the race off. I plan to target all the best mares’ races next season so why she’ll need the breaks to go her way as she always does she’s definitely good enough to win her race as well.”
Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half – Hectorjayjay: 27.84secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Have A Bender: 54.92secs
Fastest Last Mile – Lombo Toscannini: 1:55.57
Sectional Superstar
Have A Bender (Race 7 no.11) – $10 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Despite again drawing a poor barrier, this guy is low flying if his numbers are anything to go by.
He was
clearly the quickest last mile in his M1-3 win last weekend, he ripped home the
fastest last half of the night and he kept charging to record the quickest last
quarter of the race.
He will need
some luck stepping up in grade, but if the speed is on and he gets the right
cart into the race, he is every chance to place at juicy odds.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Kilmore
The Game Plan for
Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Kilmore card is tough but I am still very keen on one at a bit of a price plus two Money races and the Quads, so let’s get a win ahead of tomorrow night at Melton.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
The Money Races
3,4/ 1,3,4,8/ 1,3,4,8. $10 gets 83.33%
4/ 1,2/ 7. $10 gets 500%
1,2/ 4/ 1,2. $8 gets 400%
1,2/ 4/ 7. $2 gets 100%
9,11/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9/ 1,3,10,12,13/ 2,3,9,10,11. $50 gets 12.5%
Tonight’s Kilmore card is tough but I am still very keen on one at a bit of a price plus two Money races and the Quads, so let’s get a win ahead of tomorrow night at Melton.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Pine Plains (Race 4
no. 1) $4
I’ve had an opinion of this filly ever since she began
racing and her last start effort when charging home behind Union belle and Tennaya
(won since) was absolutely outstanding. The ace alley probably isn’t ideal but if
she holds a forward spot early I’m confident that she’s the one to beat.The Money Races
Race 1
1,8/ 1,3,4,8/ 1,3,4,8. $40 gets 333.33%3,4/ 1,3,4,8/ 1,3,4,8. $10 gets 83.33%
Race 8
4/ 1,2/ 1,2. $30 gets 1500%4/ 1,2/ 7. $10 gets 500%
1,2/ 4/ 1,2. $8 gets 400%
1,2/ 4/ 7. $2 gets 100%
Quaddies (x2)
1/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9/ 1,3,10,12,13/ 2,3,9,10,11. $50 gets 25%9,11/ 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9/ 1,3,10,12,13/ 2,3,9,10,11. $50 gets 12.5%
Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Horsham
The Game Plan for Horsham – with Jason Bonnington
(@jasonbonnington)
It feels like a while since we visited Horsham but it’s been worth the wait because today’s programme looks loaded up w/ wonderful winning opportunities. There will be some doubling-up here as many of our Best Bets are also in the Quad but if things go to plan it could be a pretty big pay day for us punters!
Indulgent (Race 5 no. 5) $3.30
Cobargo Jack (Race 6 no. 2) $4.50
Faraway Man (Race 7 no. 5) $4
One Wise Man (Race 8 no. 1) $3.80
5/ 1/ 2,3,6,8,9. $30 gets 600%
5/ 2,3,6,8,9/ 1. $10 gets 200%
1/ 5/ 2,3,6,8,9. $10 gets 200%
1/ 8/ 2,4,5,10. $10 gets 250%
1/ 3,9/ 8. $10 gets 500%
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 2/ 4,6,7. $21 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 1,4,5,10/ 5. $28 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 1/ 2/ 5. $7 gets 100%
It feels like a while since we visited Horsham but it’s been worth the wait because today’s programme looks loaded up w/ wonderful winning opportunities. There will be some doubling-up here as many of our Best Bets are also in the Quad but if things go to plan it could be a pretty big pay day for us punters!
Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($50)
As I quite often say, I think all of this quartet can and
will win but it’s just wiser to take a Formula 3 because we’ll still make a
decent profit and one of the four can lose.Indulgent (Race 5 no. 5) $3.30
Cobargo Jack (Race 6 no. 2) $4.50
Faraway Man (Race 7 no. 5) $4
One Wise Man (Race 8 no. 1) $3.80
The Money Races
Race 55/ 1/ 2,3,6,8,9. $30 gets 600%
5/ 2,3,6,8,9/ 1. $10 gets 200%
1/ 5/ 2,3,6,8,9. $10 gets 200%
Race 8
1/ 8/ 3,9. $30 gets 1500%1/ 8/ 2,4,5,10. $10 gets 250%
1/ 3,9/ 8. $10 gets 500%
Quaddies (x3)
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 2/ 5. $44 gets 628.57%1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 2/ 4,6,7. $21 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 1,4,5,10/ 5. $28 gets 100%
1,2,3,4,5,6,7/ 1/ 2/ 5. $7 gets 100%
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)