Monday, October 14, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I couldn’t think of a better way to start off the week than a Monday afternoon meeting at Yarra Valley and fortunately I think we can also turn a profit from the card. In contrast to many recent Victorian meetings, there seem to be a bunch of velar top-tips going around today and I’m going to exploit that fact with a Formula 2 from the first three races on the programme along with two skinny Money races also early on. There’ll be four Quads but they so will be pretty lean while I have found one at a price we can target Each Way.

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($60 gets 20 units)
As is usually the case, I think all three of these horses will win but there some question marks so just to be safe I’m playing a Formula 2 and at their Herald Sun prices we’ll make a profit even if one of these three go under today.

Did I Imagine That (Race 1 no. 5) $2.75
This guy is no superstar and he’s also outside the draw so we’ll need to hold our breath at the start but if he steps safely here I think he’ll just roll forward and dominate the race from the top end of proceedings.

Greenough (Race 2 no. 7) $3.75
This bloke returns to racing without the benefit of a trial but he has a very good turn of foot on his day and master reinsman Chris Alford to offset the difficult gate seven draw. If he’s within striking distance late, I expect he’ll hunt them down.

Open Heart (Race 3 no. 8) $2
She may have gone under at shortish odds last time out but the run was pretty good and this race represents a monumental drop in class for the above mare. Expect her to get off the inside straight after the start and prove much too classy for this moderate field.

Best Roughie ($10 x$30)
Mor Laag (Race 7 no. 8) $12
This bloke isn’t overly versatile but he does possess an impressive 200-300m sprint if left to his own devices in transit. Today, he should settle on the leaders back or three back the poles and from there he’ll get every chance to finish off strongly so he’s worth a little lash at the juicy quote.

The Money Races ($50 Flexi Trifectas)
Race 2
This exotic is a bit risky but sometimes you’ve got to have the courage of your convictions and I really think Greenough (7) and Golden Life (1) are the only winning hopes and several others are unlikely to even fill a hole so on that basis I’m playing the below tricks and hoping everything pans out to plan.

7/ 1/ 2,6. $25 gets 1250%
7/ 2,6/ 1. $10 gets 500%
1/ 7/ 2,6. $10 gets 500%
1/ 2,6/ 7. $5 gets 250%

Race 3
As previously mentioned, I’d be shocked if Open Heart (8) doesn’t win this and given Hunzarella (4) is likely to lob the front with Queen Cazador (1) on its back they’re the leading silver medal hopes. Play skinny here as outlined below and you shouldn’t be far off a handy little collect.

8/ 1,4/ 1,4,5,6. $36 gets 600%
8/ 5,6/ 1,4,5,6. $14 gets 233.33%

The Quads
3/ 7/ 5,7,10/ 1,4,8,9. $34 gets 283.33%
3/ 1,3,4/ 5,7,10/ 1,4,8,9. $36 gets 100%
1,2,5,6/ 7/ 5,7,10/ 1,4,8,9. $24 gets 50%
3/ 7/ 5,7,10/ 2,3,5,7. $6 gets 50%

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