Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ TP

Jason's Melton preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
I’m still nursing the wounds of having not completely cleaned up at Ballarat last night but I am ready to take vengeance of this enticing card. The tricky thing tonight is knowing when to hold ‘em and knowing when to fold ‘em because almost every race looks worth a punt, but in the interests of self-discipline we’re going to target a tidy little All-Up to finish off the program plus three Best Roughies, two Money Races and a quartet of Quads.

Best Bets/ All-Up ($75)

Arber (Race 8 no. 11) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, this bloke is better than his rivals when on song and this preparation, he is on song. The draw is his only obstacle here but Jason Lee should ensure he gets a good run into things and if he does he should prove too good.

Racer (Race 9 no. 1) $1.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bet is mildly speculative because we’ve yet to see this bloke in Australia but his Kiwi form, which includes vanquishing Breeders Crown star Our Maxim, is 1000 yards better than his rivals here and he is also has the gate speed to use his polemarking draw.

Suspicious Behavia (Race 10 no. 7) $1.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now

I’m also going out on a limb a little here as this guy’s been tackling the sprint trips since being transferred to Melbourne, but I just think he’s got something on these and if he finds the front they will not run him down.

Best Roughies ($5 x $20)

Mister Orion (Race 1 no. 3) $12 – Click here to bet on this horse now

This bloke always needs a stack of luck in his races but he’s almost certain to start in double figures and is one of those horses that will always run on late and is always worth a 1 x 4 wager in this sort of race.

Illawong Kath (Race 5 no. 1) $9 – Click here to bet on this horse now

This mare’s giving a little something away in terms of class here but she is travelling much, much better than her figure formline might suggest and gets the ideal draw for her sit-sprint racing style. Again, she’s not my top tip in the race, but she’s a worth a 1 x 4 wager if she starts at decent odds.

Because I Can (Race 7 no. 2) $16 – Click here to bet on this horse now

He meets the big guns tonight but really caught the eye behind Abettorpunt last start and given that he looks a 90% chance of finding the early lead and holding everything wide until stablemate Smoken Up relieves him of the top I think he’s a super chance of filling whichever podium position isn’t occupied by  Smoken Up or Bitobliss.

The Money Races

Race 2 ($50 Flexi Trifectas) – Click here to bet on this race now
Heat winners Ourbellabro (6) & Alta Tearaway (1) were both pretty impressive in their most recent efforts at Bendigo and given they’ll both occupy forward positions here I expect them BOTH to finish on the dais and form there we’re going to hope for some value in the other top-three position.

6/ 1/ 2,4,8,9. $24 gets 600%
6/ 2,4,8,9/ 1. $10 gets 250%
1/ 6/ 2,4,8,9. $10 gets 250%
1/ 2,4,8,9/ 6. $6 gets 150%

Race 7 ($100 Flexi Trifectas) – Click here to bet on this race now

I cannot envisage any scenario where Smoken Up (12) and Bitobliss (13) won’t BOTH finish on the podium tonight and with limited hopes to join them there I’m hopeful and confident we can make something decent out of the race.

12,13/ 12,13/ 1,2,10,11. $64 gets 800%
12,13/ 1,2,10,11/ 12,13. $32 gets 400%
12,13/ 12,13/ 5,7. $4 gets 100%

The Quads (x4) – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now

5,6/ 3,6/ 5,9/ 12,13. $56 gets 350%
5,6/ 1,9/ 5,9/ 12,13. $16 gets 100%
5,6/ 3,6/ 5,9/ 1,2,10,11. $24 gets 75%
5,6/ 1,9/ 5,9/ 1,2,10,11. $4 gets 12.5%


The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).

Best Value
(Race 1 No 2 Run Forrest) ($20W/$30P) $7.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has been going along well without much luck in recent times. He has enough gate speed to hold a spot at the start and if he ends up getting a favourable run he could land the major prize at good odds.

Money Races

Race 6 (First Four) $50  – Click here to bet on this race now

9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10 $18 gets 300%
9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7 $12 gets 50%
9/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7/ 4,5,10 $6 gets 25%
4,5,10/ 9/ 4,5,10/ 4,5,10 $6 gets 100%
4,5,10/ 9/ 4,5,10/ 1,3,6,7 $6 gets 25%
4,5,10/ 9/ 1,3,6,7/ 4,5,10 $2 gets 8.33%

Race 8 (First Four) $50 – Click here to bet on this race now
9,11/ 9,11/ 5,7,8,10/ 3,5,7,8,10 $35 gets 109%
9,11/ 5,7,8,10/ 9,11 / 3,5,7,8,10 $15 gets 46%

Race 9 (Trifecta) $50 – Click here to bet on this race now
1/ 6/ Field $25 gets 357%
1/ Field/ 6 $25 gets 357%

Quaddie x4 – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
5,6,9/ 6/ 4,5,9/ 13 $30 gets 333.33%
5,6,9/ 1,2,3/ 4,5,9/ 13 $30 gets 111.11%
5,6,9/ 6/ 4,5,9/ 2,10,11 $20 gets 74.07%
5,6,9/ 1,2,3/ 4,5,9/ 2,10,11 $20 gets 24.69%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Tim Bolitho
Best Chance
Arber (Race 8 no.11) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He was terrific at Geelong; he couldn’t have been more impressive. He probably gave them 10 lengths going into the back straight and made a mess of them.

“I just think, barring bad luck, he will be in it up to his ears. If they walk early he will have to make his own luck but otherwise we will be hoping for some good speed and he will unwind at the right time.

Others

Alta Tearaway (Race 2 no.1) $2.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
"He’s drawn perfectly and he’s a C3 in that final. He’s going well so we’ll just be hoping he goes as well as he did at Geelong because he will certainly give them something to chase.

Flaxton Filly (Race 2 no.2) $21 – Click here to bet on this horse now

“She’s going well but I don’t think she is quite in the class of the other bloke. If she gets the race run to suit her she could make it interesting.

Our Summer Wind (Race 10 no.5) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now

“I think he could be the forgotten horse here, there should be some speed on which will suit him and if he gets tucked up he has a terrific 200-metre sprint. He’s still finding his form and I probably sound a bit like Gai Waterhouse but they are all good chances tonight.

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Cut For An Ace: 1:54.78
Fastest Last Half – Donegal Delight: 55.33secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Catch Your Breath: 27.00secs

Sectional Superstar
Knapdale Girl (Race 3 no.11) – $12 – Click here to bet on this horse now

This girl has the horror draw again tonight but it’s impossible to ignore her sectional performance last week.

Not only did she record the quickest first half of the last mile by quite a margin, she has ripped home in the second quickest last half and the clearly quickest last quarter of the race.

With even luck in tonight’s race she can be a major player.

Precedents & Pointers

VHRC CLASSIC

·         There have been 28 editions of the VHRC CLASSIC, the previous 3 at Tabcorp Park Melton. The race history is littered with stars right back to SINBAD BAY, through SOKYOLA, MELPARK MAJOR & SMOKEN UP.

·         Leading driver Brian Gath with 4 wins followed by Lance Justice with 3.

·         The popular elects always prove the ones to beat with all recent winners being well fancied, last year at $1.30 (SMOKEN UP). Last 3 winners $1.30, $4.60 & $2.40.

·         The race has favoured horses up the front with two of the last three leading all the way from front row draws, while DECORATED JASPER sat behind the leader in 2011.

·         The previous three winners have all run well in the same or better class at their previous start with SMOKEN UP coming off a FFA win.

·         CONCLUSION: No tricks here, look for the best horse from the best draw.

ALDEBARAN PARK R.C. FREESTONE TROTTERS CUP

·         There have been 34 editions of the R.C. Freestone Totters Cup, the previous 3 at Tabcorp Park Melton. The race history is littered with stars right back to SCOTCH NOTCH, through TRUE ROMAN, KNIGHT PISTOL & SUNDONS GIFT.

·         The Langs’ have dominated this race with Graeme Lang having won it 7 times followed by son Gavin with 5 and grandson Chris (JNR) with 3.

·         The popular elects always prove the ones to beat with all recent winners being well fancied, last year at $3.10 (MISTER ZION). Odds on favourites feature prominently throughout although MISS WARBUCKS did cause a boilover 2 years ago at $43.60!

·         The race has favoured horses up the front with two of the last three being right on the pace, while great stayer MISTER ZION came with a late run.

·         MISS WARBUCKS bucked the trend but the majority of winners have all run well in the same or better class at their previous start.

·         CONCLUSION: Again not looking for any surprises here, look for the best horse.