Friday, October 4, 2013

Good Form Preview - City Of Melton Plate Night @ Tabcorp Park

Adam Hamilton's Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
After a very difficult few programmes this week it’ll be nice to sink our teeth into the very attractive betting propositions on offer both tonight at Tabcorp Park and tomorrow night at Cranbourne. I’m having an absolutely genuine crack tonight which will be headlined by a solid Formula 3 and also include 1 Best Value Bet, 3 Money Races, 1 Exotic Speed Map special and 4 Jackpot Quaddie combos so bring on the weekend and let’s get aggressive on the punt!

Best Bets/ Formula 3 ($120 gets 40 units)
As usual, I’m expecting all four of these runners to salute but just to be safe only three must get the job done to at least get us something back tonight
Hugo Play (Race 1 no. 13) $2.20 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This fellow was simply sensational at his Victorian debut and even w/ the grandstand gate I think he’ll race tough late and just round up his rivals w/ superior strength and stamina.
Hilltop Hustler (Race 2 no. 10) $1.40 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke would not be out of his depth in the City of Melton Plate at Group2  level tonight so this C2 to C3 Final should be an absolute walk in the park.
Caribbean Blaster (Race 5 no. 9) $2.50 - Click here to bet on this horse now
Some out there still haven’t gotten the message but this bloke is now a superior horse to his only real rival here in Smoken Up (3). The only way he gets beaten is if he doesn’t get into the race because he can now park outside Trigger and put him to the sword.
Elegant Image (Race 8 no. 8) $1.25 - Click here to bet on this horse now
Andy Gath has been very patient with this bloke and it’s now paying dividends. Put simply, he is racing much better than all of his rivals here bar Tender Don (7) and can sit anywhere in transit and still prove too good.
Best Value ($15 Each Way)
Mister Rufus (Race 9 no. 1) $6.50 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has proven a pretty handy horse at different stages of his career and in a very even race where barrier will matter he should lob behind the leader and figure strongly late at even better odds than the $6.50 I marked him at in today’s Herald Sun.
The Money Races
Race 1 - Click here to bet on this race now
As mentioned above, I think Hugo Play (13) is an ideal anchor horse given his strength and consistency will almost ensure he finishes no worse than second. Another great attribute of this race form a punting perspective is its lack of depth, which will allow us to target the three skinny Ticks outlined below for a decent cut of the dividend.
13/ 7,12/ 4,7,8,9,11,12. $30 gets 300%
7,12/ 13/ 4,7,8,9,11,12. $10 gets 100%
13/ 4,8,9,11/ 4,7,8,9,11,12. $10 gets 50%
Race 5 - Click here to bet on this race now
I am near enough to certain about two things here; one is that this both Smoken Up (3) and Caribbean Blaster (9) will feature on the podium, the other is that the latter horse will prove a class above. I’ve made one conservative provision for a Trigger triumph but I’ll be surprised if he gets the chocolates here.
9/ 3/ 1,5,7,8,10,11. $30 gets 500%
9/ 1,5,7,8,10,11/ 3. $10 gets 166.67%
3/ 9/ 1,5,7,8,10,11. $10 gets 166.67%
Race 8 - Click here to bet on this horse now
Elegant Image (8) is so far in the zone right now he probably can’t even remember his old persona so he should win this w/ ease although I do have a solid and ever-developing respect for Tender Don (7). Both horses should certainly figure on the podium and for mine, there’s only three chances of joining them there.
8/ 7/ 2,5,6. $32 gets 1066.67%
8/ 2,5,6/ 7. $9 gets 300%
7/ 8/ 2,5,6. $9 gets 300%
Exotic Speed Map Special – Race 6 - Click here to bet on this horse now
As always, the ESMS is risky because it relies on a few things to go right at the start but if Jamies Boy (1) holds up early, Catch Your Breath (8) follows him through and Pembrook Caesar (9) drops three pegs for the soft peg-line run then we may get a fantastic return from the race.
1,8/ 1,8/ 9. $20 gets 1000%
1,8/ 9/ 1,8. $10 gets 500%
1,8/ 1,8/ 5,6,7,11. $14 gets 175%
1,8/ 5,6,7,11/ 1,8. $6 gets 75%

$25,000 Jackpot Quads (x4) - Click here to bet on this horse now
1,8,10/ 9/ 1,8,9/ 1,2,4,7,9. $45 gets 100%
1,8,10/ 9/ 5,6,7,11/ 1,2,4,7,9. $20 gets 33.33%
2,3,4,6,9,11/ 9/ 1,8,9/ 1,2,4,7,9. $30 gets 33.33%
2,3,4,6,9,11/ 9/ 5,6,7,11/ 1,2,4,7,9. $5 gets 4.17%
The Game Plan for Bendigo with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Value
Race 2 No 9 Metromint $12 ($15W/$35P) - Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare has been flying recently. She should get conditions to suit tonight with a lot of speed drawn on the front row. If she can get a trail into the race and be saved up for one run in the lane she could sweep home over the top of her rivals with a quick last quarter. The $12 quoted in today’s paper looks great value.
Race 5 No 8 Melpark Major $9 ($20W/$30P) - Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was disappointing last start where he led and then dropped off after getting pressured by Smoken Up. I think he will be much better suited tonight getting a soft run along the pegs in a race that should be full of pressure. If the breaks go his way and he can get clear when some of his rivals are dropping off he could get over the top of them late.
Race 9 No 1 Mister Rufus $6.50 ($50 E/W) - Click here to bet on this horse now
There was plenty to like about the way this guy closed off his race for a close up third in the quickest of the heats last Sunday. He is drawn ideally here to use his gate speed then hand up the lead to a suitable candidate and then have the last crack via the sprint lane.
Quaddie x 4 - Click here to bet on this horse now
1,9,10/ 8,9/ 1,8/ 7 $45 gets 416.67 %
1,9,10/ 8,9/ 1,8/ 1,4,9 $55 gets 138.89%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Shayne Cramp
Best Chance
Maastricht (Race 4 no.1) $4.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She had a slight virus last time and she had a month off and she’s come back really well. She’s only had the one trial but she is a mare that generally runs well fresh so I’m expecting a pretty forward showing.
“She crossed to lead at Melton last start even though she dropped out and she does have blistering gate speed so I’d expect her to hold the lead without a problem.
“She was probably ready to race a month ago but we just held her back and it worked out there was a race in town for her tonight.”
Jamies Boy (Race 6 no.1) $3.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He had some good time off after a successful campaign last season. We are just hoping he can step up another notch. His two runs this time back in have been pretty good so he should be hitting peak fitness tonight.
“He’s got good gate speed so I’d be disappointed if he didn’t give it a good shake.
“It’s always a concern to have a horse like Catch Your Breath on your back into the sprint lane but I’ve always been of the opinion that if a horse is good enough to sit behind you and beat you then that’s just racing."

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Smudge Bromac: 1:55.7
Fastest Last Half – Nicquero: 55.7secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Nicquero: 27.1secs

Sectional Superstar

Hugo Play (Race 1 no.13)
– $2.30 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Coming from the Apple Isle, this Tasmanian had to work out three wide mid-race off a quick speed last time but kept on giving after sitting parked to run second to Astronaut who sprint-laned him.
He has drawn poorly tonight but he was nominated for the Melton Plate as well which says something about his ability levels so you can expect him to be in this event up to his ears.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Most horses off the front line here have some degree of gate speed headed by OUR HORIZON (1), BAD CAT (2) and MASTER PIP (3) but all of those horses should be vulnerable to handing up if either G K GALLEON (7) or classy second line runners GOODTIME JASPER (12) or HUGO PLAY (13) force the issue with aggressive mid-race moves. Regardless of what happens early, HUGO PLAY (13) will work forward and race tough through the latter stages of the race at least while G K GALLEON (7) can go back or forward and NARRA OPERATIVE (8) can either drop out early or follow through along the peg-line and hope for plenty of luck in the lane.

Race 2
This may be a lowly assessed County Front but they will sizzle through the first 600m for sure. The fastest beginners engaged are THE RED OPAL (2), ON THE LEASH (5) and MINTI CHOICE (7) although HEXHAM HEARTBEAT (3) will be desperate for the front having won her heat of the final in pillar to post fashion last weekend. Regardless of who works their way to the top sit-sprint specialist ALTA TEARAWAY (8) will get an economical peg-line trip while METROMINT (9) should also be sitting pretty in the second half of the field. Hot favourite HILLTOP HUSTLER (10) can either wait for the dust to settle and work up to sit parked or come with one devastating run just as he did in his arrogant heat success last time out.

Race 3
Each of the first five runners in racebook order here can begin quickly from the strands but with the advantage of the inside position COOKEYSLASS (1) looks best placed to hold her rivals wide early on. If everything goes to plan the first serious question should be asked by GOLDSTAR INVASION (4) who would be a massive hope of bullying his way to the top with a good getaway while established enforcer BRYLIN CRESCENT (12) should be up looking for the breeze even from her second line draw. All of the rest will need some favours to figure late with the most dangerous late closers including BRIEF GLANCE (11), IMAGUNNADOGOOD (3) and KNAPDALE GIRL (8).

Race 4
This is another race boasting a very quick front line where MAASTRICHT (1) would be favoured to hold her rivals wide if she’s used up at the start although she may be vulnerable to the brilliant early speed from PEACES OF YOU (4) and FAIREST ONE YOU ARE (6) in particular. If MAASTRICHT (1) does hold the front then PLEASE DONT TALK (8) will get every chance of blousing her from the ideal trail while SHAKE IT MAMA (10) is more than likely to sit back early and come with one sweeping run from the rear of the field. Most of the rest also have some winning claims but will need a lot of early luck or a great cart into the race to be dangerous.

Race 5
GARNET RIVER (1) would be almost as fast off the mobile arm as any horse in Australia so he should hold everyone wide early before almost certainly handing over to SMOKEN UP (3) in the first 400m. Once that happens there is likely to be a separate battle for who leads the running line before CARIBBEAN BLASTER (9) almost certainly comes around to sit parked in transit. It’s very likely that SMOKEN UP (3) will run along here to try and get CARIBBEAN BLASTER (9) under pressure so peg-line runners GARNET RIVER (1) and MELPARK MAJOR (8) should be well suited but if Kate Gath decides to sit back and bring CARIBBEAN BLASTER (9) with one run late the race will change complexion for every horse engaged.

Race 6
This is an interesting race where JAMIES BOY (1) looks an 80% chance of retaining the lead once he sees off early challenges form ARTOC (3) and BORN AGAIN SASSY (6). Once any early burn has been completed there should be limited mid-race pressure so JAMIES BOY (1) should secure an easy enough lead with CATCH YOUR BREATH (8) also sitting pretty in behind that guy and PEMBROOK CAESAR (9) well placed if she drops three back the pegs. BETTOR GIVE IT (5) and COMPOSED (7) usually race best making one sustained run so that should be their go tonight while all of the rest will need some favours in transit to figure late tonight.

Race 7
The Melton Plate is one of the night’s hardest races to read given the lack of genuine gate speed off the front line and the fact that two stables comprise more than half the field engaged. Having said that, RULE LIKE A KING (1), FEARLESS LEADER (3) and ROYAL WITNESS (5) have some early toe but all will be vulnerable to getting crossed by the front line’s fastest  horse MACHIN OUT (6) if Lance Justice unleashes the shackles early on. If MACHIN OUT (6) does find the front he may abandon his recent racing pattern of handing up in transit or stick with it and hand up to an appropriate horse like CHANCELLOR CULLEN (7). Whichever way you look at it, MAGICAL TELF (2) will need a strong pace and some genuine luck to figure while RESTREPO (9) will want to be every bit as good as his reputation would have us believe to come from well back and overhaul this lot at the business end.

Race 8
KASYANOV (2) probably has the best early speed of any horse drawn the front line here and should find the pegs first. From there he can shoot for an all-the-way win or relent to the early/mid-race pressure which will almost certainly come from pint-sized warhorse EARL OF MOT (8). Depending upon what happens there, ELEGANT IMAGE (8) can either cruise up to sit parked or some with one long run at his rivals late while his major danger her in TENDER DON (7) may have to settle lead the three wide line home or get the cart in from ELEGANT IMAGE (8) which would make him very dangerous late.

Race 9
MISTER RUFUS (1) should more than hold his own form the polemarking draw here but it’s more than likely he’ll relent to the early toe of either METROFROMELLE (2), IM A PEREGRINE (3) or LITE JAGERMEISTER (5). There should be limited pressure once the dust settles here although BADEWITZ (4) is likely to up in search of the breeze if circumstances permit. Of the other runners BIT OF A BABE (8) should benefit from a soft peg-line trip but will need luck in the lane while LONESOME KID (6) and REAL GRIT (9) will need an unexpected strong mid-race tempo to be most dangerous late.

Race 10

With three debutantes this race is almost impossible to map but TUSCAN BREEZE (20, MAJOR CHARGE (3) and MIDNIGHT LIGHTS (6) should all have an early crack for the top and CASEY ISABELLA (1) will be dangerous if she doesn’t get double crossed in transit.

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