Sunday, October 27, 2013

Good Form Preview - Kilmore Cup Day Sunday Sesh

The Game Plan for Kilmore Cup Day – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
For all intents and purposes this looks like being a classic day of racing with three genuine features set to be staged and some pretty big reputations going on the line. To be honest I think both of today’s pacing features are far more open than the odds-makers would have us believe so I’m going to play for big value in both races while also hammering 1 Best Bet, 1 Best Value Bet, 3 Money Races and a quartet of (hopefully) profitable Quads!

Best Bet ($50 Win)
Tombstone Eden (Race 4 no. 10) $2.60

This mare has been burning up the track in recent times and given her sit-sprint racing pattern the better the race, the better she’s likely to run. Her only issue here is if they absolutely walk through the early and middle stages but if they keep rolling along I think her class will see her give them windburn late.

Best Value ($25 Each Way)

Thirsty Mach (Race 9 no. 4) $5
It’s probably fair to say that this guy hasn’t been at his brilliant best for a fair while but if Gavin uses his stunning gate speed to find the front here before handing up to an appropriate rival I think he’s a massive chance of ambushing this lot in the lane particularly after having no luck whatsoever last time out.

Best Roughies ($5 x $20)

Melpark Major (Race 5 no. 7) $21 TAB Fixed Odds
This one-time champion has already claimed the Popular Alm Sprint twice and despite some naysayers he arrives for another crack at the race in very good form. The draw will make things a little tough but he is almost certainly best placed over a mile these days and with Smoken Up (8) on struggle street from the draw.

Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no. 9) $17 TAB Fixed Odds
He split Smoken Up (8) and Caribbean Blaster two starts before acquitting himself very well again in the Geelong Rocket last time out. I marked him an $8.50 chance so the fact we’re getting twice that price is simply too good to ignore.

Jaccka Clive (Race 7 no. 3) $15 TAB Fixed Odds
Reports would suggest that this bloke is travelling much better than his figure formline would suggest and given he’s a two-time Hunter Cup placegetter about to tackle his favourite type of race her he must be some winning chance. A good beginner from the strands, he’ll be in front of most of his major rivals here and looks a huge hope of finishing on the dais if anywhere near his best.

Jack In Flight (Race 7 no. 10) $35 TAB Fixed Odds
This is another bloke who thrives on stand start, Country Cup style racing that should begin very well and get in front of plenty others here before taking a sit and coming with one, searching run over the last 800m. He was massive last time out and seems ridiculous odds at the minute in a race I think is far more open than it seems.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($Flexi First 4’s for $50)

I could go on forever about my passion for heat-into-final series but instead I’ll just point out that Cool Machrista (5) was the most impressive heat winner for this final and should push forward to find the front today. If she does I can’t see her finishing any worse than second while Greenough (1),Arriens (9) and Crazy Dave (13) are the other key players in the race.
5/ 1,9,13/ 1,9,13/ 1,3,7,9,12,13. $24 gets 100%
1,9,13/ 5/ 1,9,13/ 1,3,7,9,12,13. $18 gets 75%
5/ 1,9,13/ 3,7,12/ 1,3,7,9,12,13. $6 gets 16.67%
1,9,13/ 5/ 3,7,12/ 1,3,7,9,12,13. $2 gets 5.56%

Race 4 (Flexi Trifectas for $50)

As outlined above, I think Tombstone Eden (10) should prove too good with an inch of luck and if she doesn’t Ourbellabro (4) looks the only one who can beat her as she should lead them around and she thrives over the short course trip. Outside of those two I’m happy to play a little wide in search of some exotic value today.
10/ 4/ 1,6,7,8,9. $30 gets 600%
10/ 1,6,7,8,9/ 4. $10 gets 200%
4/ 10/ 1,6,7,8,9. $10 gets 200%

The Quads (x4)
4,10/ 1,4/ 11/ 2,3,4,5,8,10,13. $42 gets 150%
4,10/ 1,4/ 10,12/ 2,3,4,5,8,10,13. $28 gets 50%
4,10/ 7,8,9/ 11/ 2,3,4,5,8,10,13. $21 gets 50%
4,10/ 7,8,9/ 10,12/ 2,3,4,5,8,10,13. $9 gets 10.71%

Speed Maps

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