Monday, October 7, 2013

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Stawell

The Game Plan for Stawell – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Racing on 800m tracks can either be frustrating or glorious and I’m tipping today could well be the latter. The key factor for each and all of my wagers today, which will include 3 Value Bets, 1 Money Race and some Quads, will be finding horses who are likely to either lead or race very, very handy. I’m bullish today so hopefully that translates to a result.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Belated (Race 2 no. 2) $4.80
The key for this girl is that she’s almost certain to get across Ledcourt Girl (1) at the start and with very little pressure likely to be applied through the middle stages she should lob a soft lead and have a good kick left in the locker for the lane. She also has the services of Mick Bellman here, who has been in great form of late and just loves driving leaders.
The Avoca Flyer (Race 5 no. 7) $9
This guy was beaten by almost 15m in his heat of this race last time out but the margin does not tell the full story as he worked three-wide to the breeze on that occasion and was still hanging tough on straightening late. Crucially today, he looks a MASSIVE chance of spearing straight to the lead and if he does I think he’ll prove a very tough nut to crack.
Peaces Of You (Race 7 no. 1) $8
This mare has been flying at Metropolitan level of late and has finally drawn a gate from which she can win. A brilliant beginner, she can hold her rivals wide for as long as she likes here before shooting for an all-the-way win or handing up in transit and it shouldn’t be forgotten that she should have beaten her major rival here in Kickittochris (2) four starts back at Ararat. She also flies at this course with 2 wins and 4 placings from just 8 starts so have something on her Each Way here for sure.
The Money Race – Race 6
OK – so I have this pegged as a very easy race to Map which should be be dominated by those on the speed, and even more specifically, those on the pegs. The way I see things panning out Mayorofshinetown (3) will cross Gelese (1) leaving Elle Jasper (8) three back the poles. If that scenario pans out they really should dominate the race but we will make provisions in case ANYTHING goes slightly wrong at the start.
1,3,8 Boxed. $60 gets 1000%
1,3,8/ 1,3,8/ 4. $22 gets 366.67%
1,3,8/ 4/ 1,3,8. $9 gets 150%
1,3,8/ 1,3,8/ 2,9,10. $9 gets 75%
The Quads (x4)
6,11/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 1,2,7. $30 gets 50%
6,11/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 3,6,8. $18 gets 20%
1,3,4,5/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 1,2,7. $45 gets 25%
1,3,4,5/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 3,6,8. $7 gets 3.89%

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