Racing on 800m tracks can either be frustrating or glorious
and I’m tipping today could well be the latter. The key factor for each and all
of my wagers today, which will include 3 Value Bets, 1 Money Race and some
Quads, will be finding horses who are likely to either lead or race very, very
handy. I’m bullish today so hopefully that translates to a result.
Best Value ($25 Each Way)
Belated (Race 2 no. 2) $4.80
The key for this girl is that she’s almost certain to get
across Ledcourt Girl (1) at the start and with very little pressure
likely to be applied through the middle stages she should lob a soft lead and
have a good kick left in the locker for the lane. She also has the services of
Mick Bellman here, who has been in great form of late and just loves driving
leaders.
The Avoca Flyer (Race 5 no. 7) $9
This guy was beaten by almost 15m in his heat of this race
last time out but the margin does not tell the full story as he worked
three-wide to the breeze on that occasion and was still hanging tough on
straightening late. Crucially today, he looks a MASSIVE chance of spearing
straight to the lead and if he does I think he’ll prove a very tough nut to
crack.
Peaces Of You (Race 7 no. 1) $8
This mare has been flying at Metropolitan level of late and
has finally drawn a gate from which she can win. A brilliant beginner, she can
hold her rivals wide for as long as she likes here before shooting for an
all-the-way win or handing up in transit and it shouldn’t be forgotten that she
should have beaten her major rival here in Kickittochris (2) four starts
back at Ararat. She also flies at this course with 2 wins and 4 placings from
just 8 starts so have something on her Each Way here for sure.
The Money Race – Race 6
OK – so I have this pegged as a very easy race to Map which
should be be dominated by those on the speed, and even more specifically, those
on the pegs. The way I see things panning out Mayorofshinetown (3) will
cross Gelese (1) leaving Elle Jasper (8) three back the poles. If
that scenario pans out they really should dominate the race but we will make
provisions in case ANYTHING goes slightly wrong at the start.
1,3,8 Boxed. $60 gets 1000%
1,3,8/ 1,3,8/ 4. $22 gets 366.67%
1,3,8/ 4/ 1,3,8. $9 gets 150%
1,3,8/ 1,3,8/ 2,9,10. $9 gets 75%
The Quads (x4)
6,11/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 1,2,7. $30 gets 50%
6,11/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 3,6,8. $18 gets 20%
1,3,4,5/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 1,2,7. $45 gets 25%
1,3,4,5/ 1,5,7,9,11/ 1,3,8/ 3,6,8. $7 gets 3.89%
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