Friday, October 11, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Jason's Melton preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s been nice to bounce back hard w/ an extremely profitable week on the punt and I am very confident we’ll only add to the coffers at Tabcorp Park tonight. I haven’t got a heap of wagers @ HQ tonight but I’m very keen on the ones I am attacking so I’ll be playing very, very hard on my Formula, my Best Roughie, my 2 Money Races and the Quads. Giddy Up punters – spring is in the air!!

Best Bets/ Formula 2 ($120 gets 40 units)
As is usually the case, I’m very bullish that all three of these horses will win but in the interests of conservatism I’m going to take an aggressive Formula 2 just in case something goes wrong.

Bettor Give It (Race 7 no. 6) $2.80 Click here to bet on this horse now
I still haven’t worked out whether this mare just lacks a touch of killer instinct because she’s run a heap of placings since being transferred to Emma Stewart but some of those silver medals have been behind Keayang Cullen, Five Star Anvil and Broadways Best. Back to mares’ grade here she looks especially well suited, particularly from the front line draw. If she works to the front they will not beat her and even if she doesn’t she’s still the one to roll.

Tender Don (Race 8 no. 6) $1.80 Click here to bet on this horse now
If you’re going to wager on trotters you have to know they’re ‘in the zone’ and there’s no doubt that’s exactly where this big bloke is right now. He will face his challenges in the form of front-running sprint specialist  Brylin Crescent (1) and the also on-fire Prettylilangeleyes (5) but he can just keep rolling at such a consistent speed that I think he’ll eventually wear them down once again tonight.

Catch Your Breath (Race 9 no. 6) $1.70 Click here to bet on this horse now
I keep harking back to the Claiming Masters heat where this guy brained his opposition here because he gets almost identical circumstances tonight as he did there and should get exactly the same result. Watch for him to bully his way forward early before taking the front and leading his rivals a merry little dance.

Best Roughie ($30 x $50)
Shandon Village (Race 4 no. 10) $12 Click here to bet on this horse now
I have not been as keen on a double figure runner as I am on this guy for quite some time. My notes tell me he’s gone incredibly well both of the last two Friday night’s at Tabcorp Park  and tonight he finds himself in a race where there will be stacks of early speed, plenty of mid-race moves and all the pressure he requires to sit back early before coming with a booming late sprint, particularly if he gets any cart into the race whatsoever. If things go right tonight I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t run a place at least.

The Money Races ($100 flexi trifecta's)
Race 1 – Click here to bet on this race now
I just love heat-into-final affairs because the form is laid out so beautifully in front of you it’s very hard to lose. What the heats of this race told us is that Stormed Out (3) and Sals Mo (9) are simply better than their rivals and should almost certainly fight out the finish here while there are also limited chances to even fill the other podium position so take the Tricks below & they should provide a super start to the night.

3,9/ 3,9/ 8,11,12,13. $64 gets 800%
3,9/ 8,11,12,13/ 3,9. $24 gets 300%
3,9/ 3,9/ 5,10. $12 gets 300%

Race 9 Click here to bet on this race now
I feel absolutely confident that with Chris Alford back in the cart and form the front line draw Catch Your Breath (6) will lead and win tonight and given Smudge Bromac (7) is the only runner who can match him on form and class, he will also be finishing somewhere on the dais – probably in second spot. As a result I’m bullish that the three Trifectas below will get us a tidy profit to finish off the night.

6/ 7/ 2,5,8. $69 gets 2300%
6/ 2,5,8/ 7. $21 gets 7005
7/ 6/ 2,5,8. $10 gets 333.33%

The Quads (x4)Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
1,2,3,5,6,10,11/ 1,7,8,10,11/ 7,10/ 6. $35 gets 50%
1,2,3,5,6,10,11/ 1,7,8,10,11/ 7,10/ 1,8. $28 gets 20%
1,2,3,5,6,10,11/ 1,7,8,10,11/ 3,9,11,12/ 6. $28 gets 20%
1,2,3,5,6,10,11/ 1,7,8,10,11/ 3,9,11,12/ 1,8. $9 gets 3.21%

The Game Plan for Melton with Andrew Evans (@AndrewEvansHRV).
Best Bets (All Up $150 Win)
(Race 9 No 6 Catch Your Breath) $1.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy was a dominant winner here three runs back against similar opposition to what he meets tonight. Since that win he has been luckless at his two subsequent runs. Tonight he should be able to shoot straight to the top and be extremely hard to beat.

(Race 10 No 11 Maidstone Miss) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This mares last two runs have been exceptional under different circumstances. Two runs back she shot straight to the lead and then kept up a hot speed whilst doing everything right and never looked like being challenged. Last start her run to finish as close as she did was massive, she broke stride at the start and lost significant ground then recovered and was about to come with another run but broke badly again at about the 400m mark and lost touch with the field and was out of vision. I had to watch the replay again to make sure the right horse was called crossing the line as she ended up finishing in 4th spot only 6.0 metres from the winner, which is quite unbelievable. She has to come from the outside of the second row over the sprint trip here which is a big ask but if she does everything right she will probably be much too good for her opposition.   

Best Value
(Race 4 No 1 Run Forrest) ($30W/$70P) $6.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has been going along well without much luck in recent times. He has enough gate speed to hold a spot after the start and if he ends up behind the leader which is a big possibility he will be a great chance of firing through via the sprint lane and scoring at good odds.

Money Race
Race 8 (Flexi First Fours) $50 - Click here to bet on this race now
6/ 5/ 2/ 1,7 $17.50 gets 875%
6/ 5/ 1,7/ 2 $12.50 gets 625%
6/ 5/ 1,7/ 1,7 $5 gets 250%
6/ 2/ 5/ 1,7 $5 gets 250%
5/ 6/ 2/ 1,7 $5 gets 250%
5/ 6/ 1,7/ 2  $3 gets 150%
5/ 6/ 1,7/ 1,7 $2 gets 100%

Quaddie x 1 – Click here to bet on the Quaddie now
1,2,11/ 6,7,8,10,11,13/ 3,7,10,12/ 6,8  $100 gets 69%

Black Booker (Racing Tonight)
(Race 10 No 11 Maidstone Miss) $2.80 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This mares effort last start to finish as close as she did at the finish was enormous. She broke stride at the start of the race and lost ground then she chased hard and was about to be put into the race again with about 400m to go but broke stride again and lost touch with the field. After all that she got back into stride and started chasing again and ended up finishing in fourth spot only 6.0 metres from the winner.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart
Best Chance
Bettor Give It (Race 7 no.6) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
““She should be hard to beat, the last few weeks she’s been beaten by about a half a head, so you know she is going terrific. With the right run she will definitely be in it.

“Of the four I like her the most. She always tries and she is always thereabouts. The draw doesn’t help Shake It Mama so I would lean to Bettor Give It.”

Village Peach (Race 1 no.13) $16 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She does have the terrible draw but her last run was pretty good, it wasn’t run to suit her. She’ll just come with one run and she should be getting home strong.

Goodtime Jasper (Race 4 no.11) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s probably not his sort of go to work around them even though he has done it the last couple of runs. He just can’t get a draw; if he draws the front row he wins but he will still be thereabouts.

Jadahson (Race 5 no.12) $14 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“His first up run was good and his second up effort was even better. He obviously had a long time off but he is getting fitter with each run so he should improve this week and then really go on from there.

Mister Sheedy (Race 6 no.10) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s been going well and he is a different horse when he can find the front and his form has been pretty good so he should run a good race again. He can sometimes miss the stand a little bit but in general he has been okay at it.

Tara Toplady (Race 7 no.1) $6.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She has been going terrific and she’s just such an honest mare. She’s drawn to be right in it as well which always helps.

Bollinger Baby (Race 7 no.4) $26 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“The draw doesn’t help her but she is a tougher sort of mare at the same time. Her run last week wasn’t great but she has improved into this week.

Shake It Mama (Race 7 no.8) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s come back really well now. The draw isn’t ideal, she’ll probably be three back the pegs but she does have the speed to get home hard, so hopefully she’ll be getting over the top of them,”

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Lucky Dave: 1:53.54

Fastest Last Half – Magical Telf: 54.76secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Shake It Mama: 26.73secs
Sectional Superstar
Shake It Mama (Race 7 no.8) – $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now

In a race that suited the on pace runners, Shake It Mama let down like the good horse we know she can be.

She clearly ran the fastest last mile, and half of her race and to top that off she ripped home in the quickest quarter of the night.

She may well be peg-bound for much of the race but if the gaps appear in the straight she is set to explode.

Speed Maps

Race 1
Despite a compromised front line following the scratching of Ultimate Sheldon there should still be some good early pace with Lycoming Racer (2) and Courageous Spirit (5) set to fly the mobile start. One of the two will lead early but either will be vulnerable to handing up if Stormed Out (3) musters speed and goes looking for the lead. Sals Mo (9) is a noted enforcer who will be circling the field at some stage in search of the breeze while Timeseel (8) will need plenty of luck from the awkward draw and Donoson (11), Conflict Of Interest (12) & Village Peach (13) should track each other into the race wide out on the track.

Race 2
This is another race with good early toe as Hollys Miss Molly (1) will be trying to kick up early and both Modern Hitch (4) and Walky Talky (7) should be spearing forward to relieve her of the lead. Whatever transpires early Hollys Miss Molly (1) shouldn’t end up further back than three the poles while noted enforcers Valentino Rustler (13) and Armbro Speedstar (10) are favoured to settle outside the leader and three wide solo in transit. Most of the rest will need some luck but Our Summer Wind (12) and Sporty Mac (9) look particularly dangerous if the speed is on throughout.

Race 3
This is an amazingly difficult race to map where Imagunnadogood (2) and Gluteus Major (4) look most likely to fight out the early lead but Monsieur Deville (5) and Makemcry Maori (7) may have a say in the fireworks early. There are no established enforcers engaged but The Pearls Of Paris (6) can work forward early and Michael Thomas (12) should also be on his bike at some stage. Abbotshall (3) looks most dangerous of the late closers although Just Call Me Earl (8) can also finish quickly if he gets some luck from the inside back line draw.

Race 4
Here we have yet another event with a heap of front line speed where Life Of Ted (4) and Giveusagrin (6) are both blistering beginners and all of the rest have enough early toe to chance their arm at the start. Expect Life Of Ted (4) to hold the front if Mick Bellman is keen which should give Run Forrest (1) the ideal sit and make things tough for likely favourite Kickittochris (2) who may have to park outside the speed. Indulgent (7) is another likely enforcer wide out on the track while Shandon Village (10) and Goodtime Jasper (11) look the dangerous late closers if the speed is hot as expected.

Race 5
Mark Dennis (1) is a quick beginner who should probably resist the early challenge from fellow fast starter Artoc (3) to keep the lead. if he does then Our Arlington (8) should get the gun run on the leaders back. Geoff Webster-trained stablemates Kotare Roland (10) and Cut For An Ace (11) are both capable of making mid race moves with the latter more likely to sit parked and still remain competitive while Lovable Larrikin (7) heads a list of sit-sprint specialists who will charge home late if there’s a genuine tempo throughout.

Race 6
There are a thousand possible scenarios here but there are some things we can pretty much rely on. The first of those is that Franco Jackson (1) will begin well from the pole, the second is that Astronaut (7) will be working forward at some stage of the race, the third is that Mister Sheedy (10) will be doing the same if he steps safely from the strands and the fourth is that nearly every other horse can feature in the finish with the right run in transit.

Race 7
This should be an interesting tactical battle early with Tara Toplady (1) and Illawong Kath (2) both hoping from the front along with Bollinger Baby (4) and Donegal Delight (7) if they’re let go at the start. If Tara Toplady (1) does keep the early lead as expected she’ll have the option of either holding her rivals wide for the trip or handing up to an appropriate rival like top-flight stablemate Bettor Give It (6). That decision will be crucial for Shake It Mama (8) who will either lob the leaders back or get shuffled three poles as a result while class mares Born Again Sassy (12) and Victors Delight (11) will have to make their own luck from second line draws to take this out.

Race 8
Brylin Crescent (1) is a very quick beginner off the mobile arm who specialises in sprint trip racing so she should lead then for as long as she can here although there could be early challenges from both Retained (3), Si Capisco (4) and Prettylilangeleyes (5). Once the dust has settled Tender Don (6) should ease wide in search of the breeze while Brief Glance (2) and Maoris Pocket (7) will likely be driven for luck.

Race 9
Megasam (2) looks very likely to have the required pace to find the pegs first here although it’s almost certain he’ll be handing up to fellow fast starter Catch Your Breath (6) in the early stages of the race. Once that transpires Smudge Bromac (7) should progress forward but there’ll be little pace in the race so pocket rocket Washmepockets (8) will need to produce a massive run to win from where he’ll lob early and That’s Mister Ali (5) will be relying on his lethal turn of foot to feature on the podium tonight.

Race 10
There should be a willing battle for the early ascendancy here with Will Atone (1) keen to hold the top with pressure coming from A Stylish Jewel (2), Packed Up Early (3), Monica My Dear (5) and Tribal Fella (7). Regardless of what transpires early Monica My Dear (5) should land in the first couple of runners while class runner Maidstone Miss (11)   has the versatility to make a mid-race move or come with one big run and Mallee Trapper (8) can feature late courtesy of a cosy peg-line trip.

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