Tonight looks a good programme to try and find a little value, so I’m going to nominate 1 value bet 3 roughies, a Money Race and some Quads to help us make some folding.
The Money Race
Race 5
The only question mark here is whether Majestic Reign (1) has the gate speed to either lead or at least complete the re-take if she does get crossed early on. I’m actually banking on the fact that she will be crossed by Fairest One Youare (4) but then get the lead back from that mare pretty early on. If they’re leader/behind leader that will be the end of the story but just in case they’re not I’m also playing a saver. Here’s my plan.
1/ 4/ 6,8,9. $60 gets 2000%.
1/ 8,9/ 4,6,8,9. $30 gets 500%.
Best Value
The Delirama (Race 6
no. 5) ($10) ($20 win $30 place)
Very simple thought process here. At his best this guy would
cross his rivals and find the front soon after the start and after narrowly
failing from the top end in a 1:57.6 mile rate last start I think the double
figures is juicy. He may not win but he’ll give you a run for your money and
with any sort of breather he’ll be very hard to beat.
Best Roughies ($50
the place on each)
Mor Laag (Race 4 no.
6) ($21)This guy was deemed a non-runner last start after being interfered with at the start, but his run despite that interference was sensational. A cursory glance at his five runs to date show he hasn’t had much luck in his career so far and with the promise of some early speed here it would not surprise at all to see him flashing home late at very big odds.
Sopranos Fury (Race 5 no. 8) ($26)
This bloke thrives off a soft trip, as evidenced by his silver medal behind Majorflex five back when behind the speed and his breakthrough win two back when three back along the pegs. Put simply, he’ll be either behind the lead or three pegs at worst here and given he’ll be following hot favourite Majestic Reign (1) everywhere he goes, then I’m more than willing to invest pretty heavily that he can run a drum at odds.
Black And Yellow
(Race 7 no. 1) ($21)
Here is another case where a quality horse is likely to get
the soft run she needs to figure. This mare has not been far away in some
really strong form races of late, including a handy fourth behind Restrepo and
Charlie Machsheen at Melton. This also isn’t easy but if she can get no further
back than three back the poles at a track where the sprint lane is golden then
once again, the $21 looks great value for place-only players. Quaddies (x4) ($50)
4,5,10,11/ 1/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 1,2,4,10. $20 gets 25%.
1,2,3,6,8/ 1/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 1,2,4,10. $20 gets 10%.
4,5,10,11/ 4,9/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 1,2,4,10. $8 gets 5%.
1,2,3,6,8/ 4,9/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 1,2,4,10. $2 gets 1%.
Im Noddy (Race 7 no. 10)
He ran an enormous race when working to the leaders’ wheel and racing tough yet only going under to Pembrook Caesar on the line in a new Yarra Valley track record of 1:56.9 for the 2150m trip. The draw hasn’t been kind here and the opposition are pretty strong, but a repeat of that effort would still see him too good tonight. Click here to view the run.
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