The Game Plans for Melton
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet
Well Hello Dolly (Race 4 no. 1) ($3.70)
This mare isn’t the most talented pacer engaged but for the third consecutive start she’ll be tucked away behind the leader (Ubringthedrinks) over the Melton mile and given she’s won both of her last two outings it’s hard to see why she won’t do the same again tonight. Back her straight out and take the Trifectas outlined in ‘The Money Race’ below.
The Money Race
Race 4
As mentioned above Ubringthedrinks (4) will almost certainly be in front here with Well Holly Dolly Dolly (1) strapped hard to his back in transit. They fought out the finish of a very similar race to this under similar circumstances a couple of weeks back so they should run one-two or one-three at very worst and probably comprise your best bets for the programme. See below for suggested Trifectas.
1,4/ 1,4/ 3,8,10,11,12. $70 gets 700%.
1,4/ 3,8,10,11,12/ 1,4. $30 gets 300%.
Best Value
Superstar Express (Race 2 no. 4) ($13)
A brilliant beginner, this guy is odds upon to find the front soon after the start here and a recent perusal of Tabcorp Park results over the mile tells us that’s a super place to be. If they drop anchor at any stage he can win this.
Best Roughies
Heza Trick (Race 6 no. 8) ($21/ $5) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was on the cusp of something special last season and his recent form is not as bad as it looks. He was luckless in The Legends and the Cranbourne Cup and ran second to Smoken Up in between those runs. It’s hard to see him being worse than three pegs here at $20+ he’s worth an Each Way wager.
Saint Flash (Race 6 no. 11) ($23/$5.40) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
He is a stablemate of Heza Trick who was outclassed in last week’s brutally run Cranbourne Cup but his prior form includes a luckless run in The Legends, an outstanding Nyah Cup win over Bitobliss where he worked overtime in the run and still held on and a win on this track over Mustang Mach and co. He may be feeling the pinch but if anywhere near his best he’ll give this a shake at big odds.
Victoria Cup First 4’s
3/ 1,2,4,5,10,12/ 1,2,4,5,10,12,13/ Field. $50 gets 15.43%.
1,2,4,5,10,12/ 3/ 1,2,4,5,10,12,13/ Field. $50 gets 15.43%.
Quaddies (x2)
1,4/ 2,7,9,10,11/ 6,8,9,11,12,13/ 3. $30 gets 50%.
1,4/ 2,7,9,10,11/ 6,8,9,11,12,13/ 1,2,4,5,10,12. $70 gets 46.67%.
Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
The Money Race
Race 4
Well Hello Dolly and Ubringthedrinks were very kind to me when they last met in a similar race to this a few weeks ago and they again look a great base for exotics.
My speed map has Ubringthedrinks in front, Well Hello Dolly trailing and The Ragpickers Dream three-back the pegs so I’m spending $100 on some First Fours.
1,4/ 1,4/ 8/ Field. $36 gets you 200%
1,4/ 1,4/ Field/ 8. $36 gets you 200%
1,4/ 8/ 1,4/ Field. $14 gets you 77.77%
1,4/ Field/ 1,4/ 8. $14 gets you 77.77%
Best Place Bet
The Ragpickers Dream (Race 4 no. 8)
As mentioned above, this guy is almost certain to be three-back on the pegs enjoying a cushy run and in a pegs-dominated affair he looks a big chance of filling a place at reasonable odds.
Best Roughies
Alabama Skeeta (Race 5 no. 1) ($21/$3) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy is a metropolitan maiden taking on the big boys for the first time but he has been awesome at his past two on this track and looks ready to take the step up.
He is only a moderate beginner and is likely to be shuffled back on the markers but if the right gaps appear in the straight he is not without a blowout chance.
Washakie (Race 7 no. 10) ($16/$3) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
The form around this guy is super as he handled last week’s Cranbourne Cup winner Terrorway in Group races in Qld before going on to win his fourth Treuer Memorial at Bankstown last start.
He has the back row draw to overcome, plus some quality opposition, but he is in career-best form and looks terrific each way value at the odds currently quoted.
Quaddies (x4)
1,4/ 1,2,7,9,10/ 6,8,9,12,13/ 3. $20 gets you 40%
1,4/ 1,2,7,9,10/ 6,8,9,12,13/ 2,4,5,10,12,13. $40 gets you 13.33%
6,8,10,11,12/ 1,2,7,9,10/ 6,8,9,12,13/ 3. $10 gets you 8%
6,8,10,11,12/ 1,2,7,9,10/ 6,8,9,12,13/ 2,4,5,10,12,13. $30 gets you 4%
Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)
Best Value
Abettorpunt (Race 6 no. 9) ($7/$2.20) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke is perfectly drawn behind the early speed tonight and it was hard to miss his super run behind Bitobliss and Smoken Up when coming from nearly last and the only horse to make ground in The Legends at this course. He was topped off nicely with a tough win at globe Derby last time our and after three runs from a break he should be ready to produce his best.
Terrorway (Race 7 no. 2) ($8/$2.33) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I bet for value so favourites rarely come into my sight. As a result I’ve settled on this guy as the best betting option in the Victoria Cup. He is sure to get the run of the race from his favourable alley and was terrific in the Cranbourne Cup when making three runs but still a shade too good. That was his first run for six weeks so he should be even better tonight.
Best Roughie
Billy The Brat (Race 9 no. 11) ($17)
This trotter has been having no luck but running on well in stands of late and while his record from the mobile isn’t flash the conditions of this race may take the sting out of some of his front row rivals so have something each way at the juicy quote tonight.
$200K Pool Guarantee Victoria Cup First 4
2,3,4,5,10/ 2,3,4,5,10/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,10,11,12,13/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,10,11,12,13. $112 gets 10%.
Tim Butt
Best Chance
Vulcan (Race 5 no. 2) ($4.60) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
‘It’s a good draw because it’s in the running line, he’s not quick out but he’ll hold his own. Hopefully he settles handy & there’s a bit more pressure in the race than last weekend. & if there’s not he’ll wander around & keep the pressure on. I was very happy with his run at Cranbourne & I expect him to go close this week.”
Others
Choise Achiever (Race 6 no. 13) ($2.70) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“This race is a stepping stone, it’s a starting off point for him. Whatever he does he’ll improve upon but he’ll still be hard to beat. Mach Alert will be hard to beat as well. He (Choise Achiever) is there to win. He’s got a bit of a way t go but if they go hard & he gets a cart into it they’ll know he’s there, put it that way.”
Mah Sish (Race 7 no. 1) ($15) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’ll hold his own at the start but he won’t be a leader, which I think punters already know. The ball’s probably in Gary Hall’s corner with Im Themightyquinn and what he decides to do but whoever leads is going to get pressurised so it’s probably not the best place to be. My bloke is a real stayer, a bit more distance would probably suit him more but he’s a horse on the rise. Over the next six weeks he’s go to show us that he’s up to the good ones. He’s cherry ripe. He’s as good as we can get him but now he’s got to show he’s got that class up against some real champions of her sport.
Speed Maps – 15 December 2012
Race 1 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
BORN AGAIN SASSY (1) & WATTABOUT A SMILE (2) are both quick beginners but expectBORN AGAIN SASSY (1) to hold the top from her inside gate. That will leave SHAKCHLOE (8)with a soft run either behind the leader or three pegs at worst. LOMBO CLOUD LINE (5) will be on the move at some stage with STEAM WASHED (7) & VALIANT SUE (4) looking to ambush their rivals late.
Race 2 – PACE MODERATE OFF THE ARM – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
SUPERSTAR XPRESS (4) is a quick beginner who should find the front soon after the start. That will leave OUR SON OF COURAGE (1) with a soft run along the pegs, most likely behind the leader. WUNLASTCHANCE (7), RUN FORREST (2) & JIMMYS GEM (9) are all enforcers who should put themselves into the race. SILENT PROWL (11) & SUMMER ACE (3) are the dangerous late closers.
Race 3 – PACE QUICK OFF THE ARM – MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
As in their heat of this race MARK DENNIS (4) & BOB DILINGER (7) should fight out the early lead here with the pace hot early on. If MARK DENNIS (4) wins that battle as expected BOB DILINGER (7) may be posted with most of the other main chances like CUT FOR AN ACE (12), RODRIGO (13) and JACCKA FELIX (6) coming from off the speed. ALCHEMY (8) may be bailed up three back the pegs or drop out for a late drag into the race.
Race 4 – PACE MODERATE OFF THE ARM – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
UBRINGTHEDRINKS (4) is the best beginner off the front line and he should cross WELL HELLO DOLLY (1) in a carbon copy of a similar race run here on November 30. That will leaveTHE RAGPICKERS DREAM (8) three back the inside with LADY PENROSE (6) andTOULOUSE LAUTREC (10) applying pressure. GUNS N ROSES (11) & IN MONACO (12) are the dangerous closers late.
Race 5 – PACE QUICK OFF THE ARM – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
This is a difficult race to read but one sure thing is that I DIDNT DO IT (7) will be spearing off the arm in search of the front immediately after the start. If he gets it then MISTER ZION (10) should be off in search of the breeze with VULCAN (2) sitting pretty somewhere off the speed and bothELEGANT IMAGE (9) & ALEPPO SUNRISE (11) hoping for plenty of speed & a cart into the race to threaten late.
Race 6 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – QUICK THROUGHOUT THE FINAL 800M
Plenty of fast beginners off the front OUR MALABAR (1) should hold all his rivals wide early on before holding the top, or more likely handing up to a horse like DECORATED JASPER (6). Expect plenty of moves with ABETTORPUNT (9), SAINT FLASH (11) & MACH ALERT (12) all wanting to work their way into the race while CHOISE ACHIEVER (13) will need to ambush his rivals late to win.
Race 7 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – BRUTAL THROUGHOUT THE FINAL LAP
Any number of possible scenarios here but popular wisdom says that IM THE MIGHTYQUINN (3) will find the pegs first and Gary Hall Jnr will dictate the race from there. If he decides to hold the top as mentioned in media circles this week then MAH SISH (1) or TERRORWAY (2) will be behind him with WASHAKIE (10) & SMOKEN UP (12) acting as enforcers. If IM THEMIGHTYQUINN (3) relinquishes the lead then GOLD ACE (4) or BITOBLISS (5) will lead and their chances are greatly enhanced.
Race 8 – PACE MODERATE OFF THE ARM – QUICKEN OVER FINAL 600M
There are some quick beginners off the front line here including SAPPHIRE SWAYZE (2), ECHEVERIA (3) & JUNGLEFACE JAKE (5) but it’s hard to see them crossing GUARANTEED (1) after the start. If any do, then the race changes complexion but if not, GUARANTEED (1) will lead with NOWITZKI (8) trailling him and the rest needing luck to get into the race.
Race 9 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH LAST 600M
ORLANDOS DREAM (1) is a dynamite beginner from both the mobile and standing start who should hold these all wide early although SANDYS BOY (3) & MAORI VACATION (5) should have a sniff at the start. KYVALLE BLUR (6) is likely to float forward and race tough along withAPOLLOS GIFT (3) while BRUNELLESCHI (8) may be on the leaders back and MICHAEL THOMAS (9) three wide late.
Race 10 – PACE EXCELLENT IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
MAYWYNS STORM (4) leaves the mobile pretty well but ULTIMATE DEAL (7) has been on fire as a leader of late so he should cross those to his inside soon after the start. COSMIC UNDER FIRE (11) is likely to push forward in search of the breeze while ONEDIN HUSTLER (10) andALGEEPEE (12) may have to race wide along with noted sit-sprinter MISTER DOUGLAS (9)tonight.
BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)
Caribbean Blaster (Race 7 no. 13) ($26/$5.76) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Was forced to go it alone three-deep at the bell in last week’s Cranbourne Cup and was entitled to drop off at the 400m after a 27.1 third quarter but he kept giving in the straight to run a gallant third to Terrorway in track record time. The draw makes it tough for him tonight but there will be plenty of pace on and if he can trail up with some cover he is in with a shot at generous odds. Click here to view the run.
STAR TRIALLERS
Choise Achiever (Race 6 no. 13) ($2.70) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
He was the Hunter Cup winner last season that hasn’t been dangerous in two runs in strong company this time in back in New Zealand but he trialled stylishly at Kilmore recently to liven him up for this. The draw makes his task a difficult one but he is a classy conveyance and if lucky enough to get a drag into the contest he will definitely make his presence felt.
Guaranteed (Race 8 no. 1) ($1.20) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Freakish talent who won multiple classics last season and looks ready to run a bold race first up judging by his devastating Ballarat trial success last Sunday where he ripped home in 56.9/27.3.
He has a bit of pace drawn to his outside and will need to be on his game early to hold the lead but once that little battle is over he should take no end of running down first up.
BLACK BOOKER (Melton last night)
American Dreamer
She is a lightly raced daughter of Art Major and half sister to Left In Paris & Lucky Twenty Three who was green as grass in the last race at Melton last night but showed enormous natural talent for her future going forward. About 15 horses wide early on she soon worked her way to the front in a first split of 28-secs and it was only her lack of race smarts that saw her get rolled. Click here to view the run.
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