Good Form Monster - Cranbourne Cup Night

The Game Plans for Cranbourne Cup night

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

It’s not only a ripper night for racing but a wonderful night for punting at Cranbourne this evening with plenty of value ablaut and a few races you can attack with genuine venom.

Best Bet

Majestic Reign (Race 8 no. 5) ($1.30)

There’s not much value here but if things aren’t panning out exactly to plan – or even if they are – this mare could salvage a bad run or put the icing on a good one if you have a proper crack.

Best Value

Pete Of Pan (Race 2 no. 3) ($15)

From an Each Way perspective I reckon this bloke is a fair dinkum Speed Map special. A brilliant beginner from the mobile start he is likely to find the pegs first & from there he can either try to hold up or more than likely hand the lead to Mister Grizzly (7) in the first 150m. If driven to advantage he will get the soft smother and await the sprint lane exit and given he defeated Keayang Hanover and Ronald George the last time he secured a similar run I’m very keen he’ll run a drum at least.

Mustang Mach (Race 7 no. 8) ($14 TAB Fixed Odds) Click here to bet on this horse now

An electric sit-sprinter who always races best when saved for one short, sharp sprint at his rivals, this bloke could not have fared better than barrier eight tonight. He’s already been backed with TAB on Fixed Odds and it’s easy to see why. All reports are that Amy Tubbs will be looking to hold the lead with Melpark Major (1). If that scenario eventuates, this guy will be smoking the pipe in behind the speed and even if Tubbs gets crossed, he’ll be no worse than three back the pegs, which remains a dangerous place to be with the advantage of Cranbourne’s long, wide sprint lane exit.

Best Roughies (Place Only)

 

Trillion Lombo (Race 1 no. 1) ($26)
This former boom juvenile produced an excellent performance in his heat of this race and given the fact he’ll either lead or trail here, I think he’s a genuine place hope in an otherwise tricky affair.

Dabeers Zargon (Race 8 no. 1) ($34)

This guy isn’t blessed with a great deal of ability but he is a quick beginner and should get the gun run behind tonight’s Best Bet Majestic Reign (5). He finished second to Machin Out at Melton after a similar run three back & can definitely run a place at massive odds tonight.

Money Races

Race 4

The Speed Map rules again here with I Didnt Do It (3) more than likely to find the front from Elegant Image (1) in the early stages. From there those two should fight out the race. Here’s how I’m carving the race up for a $120 outlay.

1,3/ 1,3/ 2,5,8,9,10,12. $96 gets 800%.

1,3/ 2,5,8,9,10,12/ 1,3. $24 gets 200%.

Race 6

2,9/ 1,2,6,9,10,11/ 1,2,5,6,9,10,11. $100 gets 200%.

Race 8

5/ 7/ 1,2,8,9,11,12. $60 gets 1000%.

5/ 1,8,11,12/ 7. $40 gets 1000%.

Quaddies (x4)

1,3/ 4,7,9,11,12/ 2,9/ 8,10. $54 gets 135%.

1,3/ 4,7,9,11,12/ 10,11/ 8,10. $20 gets 50%.
1,3/.4,7,9,11,12/ 2,9/ 1,2,3,7,9,11. $24 gets 20%.
1,3/ 4,7,9,11,12/ 10,11/ 1,2,3,7,9,11. $6 gets 5%.

Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)

Moral of the night

Majestic Reign (Race 8 no. 5) ($1.30)
No value here but he should be winning for sure.

Best Bets

Major Calipso (Race 1 no. 9) ($2.70)
Looked pretty special winning his heat of tonight’s race and should be too good with ordinary luck.

In Monaco (Race 2 no. 9) ($4.20)
Flashed home in strong Melton affair last start and looks well suited to claiming grade on that effort.

Elegant Image (Race 4 no. 1) ($3)
He’s a talented type who draws to get run of race tonight and may be a shade too good for his rivals.

Jasmine Sheffield (Race 5 no. 4) ($2.70)
She is low flying right now and appears to have the class to handle her adversaries tonight.

Cranbourne Cup

Playing for value here with two horses I believe are currently over the odds while also having a crack at the $200,000 pool guaranteed First 4 in the hope of a windfall result.

Melpark Major (Race 7 no. 1) ($7.50 TAB Fixed Odds) Click here to bet on this horse now
Old warrior who’ll have options from the gun draw but might be best placed trailing the speed.

Saint Flash (Race 7 no. 9) ($41 TAB Fixed Odds) Click here to bet on this horse now

Victoria’s most improved pacer who draws to follow out a quick beginner and can feature at odds.

First 4

1,2,3,10,11/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10,11/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10,11/ Field. $106 gets 5%.

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Bet

Jasmine Sheffield (Race 5 no. 4) ($2.70)

Has returned in sparkling form this campaign and is aiming up for the hat trick tonight after terrific St. Arnaud and Kilmore triumphs at her past two. She looks a great chance of getting the lead off either Modern Hitch or Eleventh Command and once there she should be too good once more.

Best Value

Ballochbuie (Race 6 no. 11) ($7.50)

Put up a big performance in his heat of tonight’s final at Melton when a close-up third to Just Live Life after parking out, which really isn’t his go. He will be driven sit-sprint from the draw this time around and with a bit of pace on early watch for this bloke to be coming at them late.

Jackpot First Four Cranbourne Cup (Race 7)

 

With a pool expected to exceed $200,000 it is well worth having a crack at the First Four and below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.

10/ 1,2,7,8,11/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,11.  $70 gets you 33.33%

1,2,7,8,11/ 10/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,11/ 1,2,3,5,7,8,9,11.  $30 gets you 14.28%  

Quaddies (x4)

1,3,5,10/ 4/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 10.  $20 gets you 100%

1,3,5,10/ 4/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 1,2,3,7,8,11.  $30 gets you 25%

1,3,5,10/ 6,7,8,11,12/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 10.  $20 gets you 20%

1,3,5,10/ 6,7,8,11,12/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 1,2,3,7,8,11.  $30 gets you 5%

Big6’s (x 4)

3,5,6/1,3,5,10/ 4/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 10/ 5.  $20 gets you 33.33%

3,5,6/ 1,3,5,10/ 4/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 1,2,3,7,8,11/ 5.  $30 gets you 8.33%

3,5,6/ 1,3,5,10/ 6,7,8,11,12/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 10/ 5.  $20 gets you 6.66%

3,5,6/ 1,3,5,10/ 6,7,8,11,12/ 2,6,9,10,11/ 1,2,3,7,8,11/ 5.  $30 gets you 1.66%

Cranbourne Cup Night Trainer Talk
David Miles

Best Chance

Jasmine Sheffield (Race 5 no. 4) ($2.70)
“She’s got that little bit of class on her side. The draw is a little bit awkward with a few quick beginners drawn inside her but really she just needs no bad luck and I’m pretty sure she’ll figure in the finish.”

Others

Jewel Castle (Race 1 no. 5) ($4)
“Jewel (Castle) got knocked over on the first turn last week and then circled the field first up from a spell. She got a little bit tired up the straight but she should land a bit closer tonight and be right in it I would have thought.

Thunder Fee (Race 1 no. 11) ($4)
“She drew bad, had a slow one on front of her and had to go wide earlier than we would have like last start but she flashed home late and really was quite good. If it’s a strongly run race she’s the best chance of our two where if it’s a sit up and kick, then Jewel is probably better placed.”

Zoomba (Race 5 no. 3) ($13)
“We’ll be flying the gate with her for sure. She’s good when she leads and Eleventh Command handed up to me last time we won at Melton so if a similar scenario plays out then she’ll be thereabouts.”

Nats Survival (Race 8 no. 7)
“We’re probably just hoping to run second to the other horse (Majestic Reign) again because of the barrier draw. If we’d drawn five and she’d drawn seven then we’d have a real chance but now we’ll have to sit outside her and while I still reckon we’ll test her because our one is going very well, Majestic Reign but just have a bit of class on us.”

Speed Maps
Please follow @HRVInformer for late scratchings and Change of Tactics.

Race 1 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE LAST 600M

TRILLION LOMBO (1) and STORMEE (3) are the quickest beginners off the front line & given their favourable draws one of the two should lead. HOWCOMEWHYNOT (8) draws for a soft trip along the pegs while MAJOR CALISPO (9) and JEWEL CASTLE (5) should be put in the fight early and THUNDER FEE (11) and LOMBO KOTAKINABALU (12) will need to swamp their rivals late.

Race 2 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Couple of brilliant beginners off the front line here in PETE OF PAN (3) & MISTER GRIZZLY (7). Expect PETE OF PAN (3) to find the pegs first then probably hand over to MISTER GRIZZLY (7) if that guy really runs the gate. GUNS N ROSES (6) should work forward and sit handy while his stablemate LADY PENROSE (4) should join IN MONACO (9) & THATS MISTER ALI (8) in trying to dive bomb their rivals late.

Race 3 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN THROUGHOUT LAST LAP

Tough race to read but ALCHEMY (5) is a quick beginner who should find the front in this small field. THE SEVENTH SON (7) will test him at the start and is almost certain to lob the breeze if he doesn’t find the front with CUT FOR AN ACE (3) handy in the run and JACCKA FELIX (6) spotting his rivals a little start in transit.

Race 4 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN THROUGHOUT LAST LAP

ELEGANT IMAGE (1) & I DIDNT DO IT (3) are the quickest beginners drawn the front line and they should almost certainly fight out the early lead. Expect I DIDNT DO IT (3) to find the top at some stage with ELEGANT IMAGE (1) on his back. EARL OF MOT (11) and MISTER ZION (5) are both tough & should race that way while the others will need luck to get into the race.

Race 5 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH LAST 600M

Plenty of early speed engaged here with MODERN HITCH (1), ELEVENTH COMMAND (2), ZOOMBA (3) & LIVIA DE GEROLSTEIN (6) all quick off the arm. Whoever leads, expectJASMINE SHEFFIELD (4) to find the breeze with back row runners TOMBSTONE EDEN (11) & LOOKATME PHILO (12) tagging each other into the race over the final 800m.

Race 6 – PACE GENUINE IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

This is another race boasting a couple of quick beginners, primarily ECHEVERIA (2) and CULLEN REGENT (6). Expect ECHEVERIA (2) to hold the top with RINGTRIPLEOWE (1) securing the gun run and JUST LIVE LIFE (9) wither three pegs or getting off the fence. MACHIN OUT (10) is very likely to lob the breeze with BALLOCHBUIE (11) most dangerous of the late closers.

Race 7 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT

MELPARK MAJOR (1) and MACH ALERT (2) are the fastest beginners off the front line so one of the two should lead early on with MUSTANG MACH (8) likely to secure a soft peg-line run behind the speed. Expect favourite BITOBLISS (10) to circle the field in search of a forward spot in the early stages with TERRORWAY (7) and CARIBBEAN BLASTER (11) likely to be the dangerous late closers.

Race 8 – PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

DABEERS ZARGON (1)  & JUMBALAYA LOMBO (2) are both good beginners and both should be looking to find the front first before almost certainly handing up to favourite MAJESTIC REIGN (5) throughout the early stages. NATS SURVIVAL (7) can go back or forward & be dangerous in either role while PUBLIC PERSUASION (11) & SHAPELY HIPS (12) part of the three wide line.

Race 9 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH LAST 600M

LOOK HERE BLOKE (1) is a quick beginner but almost always hands up the lead. Tonight he will hand the ascendancy to either BACKINALIFETIME (5), BRUNELLESCHI (3) or most likelyOUR DOLLY WOULD (6). KYVALLEY BLUR (8) is awkwardly drawn but can push forward in this smallish field while MISTER ELWOOD (2) should race handy and be dangerous first up from a break.

Race 10 – PACE EXCELLENT IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

It’s a small field but with MARK DENNIS (1), IT’S DUTCH COURAGE (2), BOB DILINGER (5) & SAUCY VISION (6) all engaged they will fly through the first 400m. SAUCY VISSION (6) is the quickest of the quartet and should lead but with so much pressure early sit sprint type RODRIGO (4) can be effective in a late closing role.

BLACK BOOKERS (Racing Tonight)

In Monaco (Race 2 no. 9) ($4.20)

He produced an eye-catching effort at Melton last start when flashing home out wide for fifth to Well Hello Dolly in fast final fractions. He will be improved by the outing, follows out a fast beginner and with some pace expected early on watch for him to be hammering home. Click here to view the run.

Lookatme Philo (Race 5 no. 12) ($8)

This mare was arrogant winning first up from a spell last time out. This is a much more difficult assignment but given she often blows the start gate 12 isn’t a significant disadvantage and she should be around the mark once again tonight. Click here to view the run.

Abettorpunt (Globe Derby Race 5 no. 7) ($3)

He comes off a cracking third to Bitobliss in the Legends at Melton two weeks ago where he really hit the line hard out wide in a slippery last half of 54.7. He will find tonight’s assignment a much easier one, although Zanardi is flying at the moment, but he is classy and should go very close. Click here to view the run.

STAR TRIALLERS (Racing Tonight)

Cut For An Ace (Race 3 no. 3) ($2.70)

Hasn’t had much luck in 3 runs this campaign at Melton and comes into this fresh off the back of an impressive trial victory on that circuit last Monday night. He is more than handy when on song and going by his sharp trial he isn’t far off getting back to his best form so expect him to run well tonight.

Elegant Image (Race 4 no. 1) ($3 TAB Fixed Odds) Click here to bet on this horse now

Ended his 4YO season with a stunning Breeders Crown victory at Melton and he looks ready to roll tonight after solid trials at Melton against the pacers in recent weeks. Kate Gath has the option of holding the lead, or taking the trail on I Didnt Do It and using the passing lane so he will get every possible chance first up.

Caribbean Blaster (Race 7 no. 11) ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) Click here to bet on this horse now

Wasn’t disgraced in both runs in New Zealand last month and was livened up for this with a super trial win at Melton last Monday night where he slipped home in 55.9. He will be giving his rivals a start form the draw and may well have to go it alone 3-wide the final circuit but he is top class and cannot be underestimated.

BLACK BOOKER (Melton Last Night)

Alabama Skeeta

Was slow to begin and was a long way off them in a slowly run race but he really sprouted wings late to charge down the outside and run third to Me An Kel. He was terrific winning the week prior and it won’t be long before he busts his TM0 status at headquarters the way he is going at present.  Click here to view the run.

Cranbourne Cup Night - The Stats that matter!

The average starting price for the winners of the last 20 Cranbourne Cups is $9.22.

10 winners (including one dead heater) have been favourites. The longest price was All For One which saluted at $52.90 in 2002. 2 of the past 3 odds on favourites in the Cranbourne Cup have been beaten (Im Themightyquinn in 2011 and Sokyola in 2003)
In the 12 editions of the Bill Collins Trotters Mile, 6 favourites have been successful and all were odds on favourites. The average starting price is $9.45 which was stretched out thanks to Will Trapper winning last year @ $48. Only one of the 12 winners have started from the 2^nd row that being the superstar Lyell Creek in the first running in 2001. You must also be in the first four as 7 winners have led, 2 sat outside the leader, 1 on the leaders back and 1 in the one-one. Will Trapper last year is the only horse to have come any further back