The Game Plans for Melton
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
It’s a tricky night @ Headquarters where we’re going to have
to make our money early on and via solid each way wagers on some genuine value
chances. Below is how I plan to do just that.
Best Value
Ballochbuie (Race 2 no. 2) ($8) ($25 EW)
This guy looks great odds considering his recent form which
includes a brave silver medal behind rising star Echeveria last time out.
Pressplay (Race 5 no. 6) ($12/$3.20) TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet
on this horse now ($25 EW)
I’ve always been a fan of this filly and her first up effort
gave me every indication she’ll fulfil her potential this campaign. The double
figure quote is ridiculous so get involved ASAP.
Because I Can (Race 6 no. 6) ($13) ($25 EW)
This guy is a terrific leader who should cross those to his
inside pretty easily here and stack them up once he does. He’s another big over
for mine if he’s anything more than the $5 mark.
Best Roughies
Our Blackbird (Race 7 no. 7) ($17) ($10 x $40)
This bloke is a great beginner but he’ll be going back from
the wide front line draw here and hunting them down late, just as he did
recently in the Swan Hill Mile (4th). I’m tipping a swooper will win
this race and he’s as good a chance as any so the $17 looks sensational to me.
Sporty Mac (Race 11 no. 2) ($21) ($50 place)
He is a PLACE ONLY proposition but given he’ll lead early
and have option once he does in a skinny sort of race, if you can secure $5
place via fixed odds betting then lock yourself in and go for the ride.
Money Races
Race 2
The class runners have a fair bit on their rivals here so
expect the cream to rise to the top and have a lash at the following Trifectas.
2,4,9/ 2,4,5,9/ 2,4,5,9. $72 gets 400%.
2,4,9/ 2,4,5,9/ 1,12. $28 gets 155.55%.
Race 9
Simple philosophy here. Reckon Mark Dennis (3) will
work to the front over The Ragpickers Dream (1) and from there the
peg-line runners will rule. It’s a little risky but should bear fruit if
everything goes to plan.
3/ 1/ 8/ 2,4,5,7,9. $50 gets 1000%.
3/ 1/ 2,4,5,7,9/ 8. $25 gets 500%.
1/ 3/ 8/ 2,4,5,7,9. $15 gets 300%.
1/ 3/ 2,4,5,7,9/ 8. $10 gets 200%.
Quaddies (x2)
2,4,12/ 6,11/ 1,3,4,6,7,8/ 2,4,5,7,11. $45 gets 25%.
2,4,12/ 1,2,8,9,12/ 1,3,4,6,7,8/ 2,4,5,7,11. $55 gets 12.22%.
Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
Value Bets
Our Walden Bury (Race 2 no. 12) ($3.50)
This guy had no luck at all first up for Glenn Douglas at
Bendigo 9 days ago when held up badly until entering the straight before
rocketing home into fourth behind Narre Boy. He has a task tonight from the
extreme draw but may be lucky enough to gain a drag into it and will be hard to
hold out at the business end with his customary sprint.
Because I Can (Race 6 no. 6) ($13)
Has been freshened up by Lance Justice and will be dangerous
in this if he brings his latest form behind Chancellor Cullen and Keayang
Cullen on this track to the races tonight. He has blinding gate speed when
livened up and with a lack of any real dash to his inside he looks a big chance
of getting the lead and from there rod Petroff will give him every hope.
Atlas Alliance (Race 7 no. 2) ($3.70)
Gets in well with the claim for Rhys Nicholson and he will
find tonight’s assignment much easier than the Casey Classic he contested last
Saturday night when not disgraced behind Decorated Jasper. He has some speedy
beginners to his outside but he does leave the mobile well himself and if he
can either hold them at bay or at worst end up behind the leader he has a
terrific each way chance.
Jimmys Gem (Race 8 no. 7) ($6)
One paced type who battled on OK last time behind They Call
Me Chaos in a similar race to this last Saturday night in solid time after
doing his share of work in the run. He will appreciate the step up in distance
tonight and expect him to push forward, race up on the pace and give a good
account of himself at each way odds in what is an open affair.
Quaddies (x2)
1,2,4,12/ 11/ 1,3,4,6,8/ 1,2,3,4,11. $50 gets you 50%
1,2,4,12/ 1,2,4,6,9,12/ 1,3,4,6,8/ 1,2,3,4,11. $50
gets you 8.32%
Tim Bolitho
Best Chance
Corbin Lee (Race 11 no. 5)
“I hadn’t trialled him before his first up run at Ararat and
I reckon he was close to a good thing beaten there. He was coiled like a spring
and had to come five wide at the 400m which didn’t suit but he still got pretty
close to the winner. There are a few unknowns in the race but it still looks a
winnable affair and I’d be disappointed if we didn’t give it a pretty good
shake.
Others
Ballochbuie (Race 2 no. 2)
“He’s been a pleasant surprise because he’s very lazy at
home but he turns it on at the races. His last four or five have been very good
but he does have some stiff opposition tonight. We’re happy with him though and
the draw is an advantage so he’s definitely in it with a chance.”
Rodrigo (Race 4 no. 12)
“He couldn’t have been more impressive than at his last
couple of wins. He needs the race run to suit – he’s no good if they walk up
top - but he’s very tough and his last 1200m is very good. Arber will obviously
be tough to beat tonight but we’d like to think he’s Hamilton or Horsham Cup
standard so that should be good enough to go close tonight.”
Speed Maps – 21 December 2012
Race 1 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – MODERATE ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
EL PACO (2) is the quickest beginner off the front
line and should cross to find the front after which he’ll either hold the lead
or hand up to a suitable runner. MISTER ELWOOD (1) should lob behind the
leader or head around in search of the top while BRUNELLESCHI (8) is
likely to be three pegs and KYVALLEY BLUR (9) also in a forward
role if he can track EL PACO (2) through at the start.
Race 2 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – GENUINE ONCE THEY
SETTLE DOWN
BALLOCHBUIE (2) and CYRUS (5) appear the
quickest beginners drawn the front so they should fight out the early lead with
THE MIDNIGHT REIGN (4) and MY TEMUDJIN (9) looking for forward
positions in the run. THIS IS YOUR LIFE (1) should get a soft run in
behind the speed while OUR WALDEN BURY (12) will be looking for a three
wide cart if he’s to be dangerous late.
Race 3 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – MODERATE ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
ORLANDOS DREAM (6) is a brilliant beginner form the
strands and the mobile that should fly the start in search of the early lead
here although LIGHTNING JOY (2) & ME AN KEL (4) could have
something to say about that. OUR DOLLY WOULD (7) & ROCKIN WILMA
(3) should both be handy with ALABAMA SKEETA (8) trapped along the
pegs and several horses racing deep over last 800m.
Race 4 – PACE MODERATE OFF THE ARM –
GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
BURITON BAILEY (2) can really fly the tapes on his
day and looks best placed to find the front with VINNIN GAMBINO (3) &
HEZA PANAMACH (1) likely to land soft runs. ARBER (4) can be a
little hit and miss from the stand but should settle handy with KING OF
PARADISE (10) & ONEDIN HUSTLER (11) racing tough and RODRIGO
(12) looking to ambush his rivals off a three-wide cart.
Race 5 – PACE MODERATE OFF THE ARM –
GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
Hard to find a likely leader here although ASKMENOW (1) appears
as well placed as any to kick up and hold the top. If he does then BIG BANG
PENNY (8) will get a cosy trip while DIEING SECRET (11) heads off in
search of the breeze. THUNDER FEE (2) should also race handy while PRESSPLAY
(6), BIT OF A BABE (9) & JEWEL CASTLE (12) are the most
dangerous late closers in a deep and even field.
Race 6 – PACE QUICK OFF THE ARM – MODERATE ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
BECAUSE I CAN (6) is a brilliant beginner who looks
almost certain to find the early lead. That would leave either CUT FOR AN
ACE (1) or MATTY CHRIMES (3) with the gun run in behind the speed.
Expect WASHMEPOCKETS (4) to race handy with ALCHEMY (8) getting
off the fence and also acting as a late enforcer despite his awkward draw and HEZ
THE VART MAN (7) coming with one run late.
Race 7 – PACE LIGHTNING OFF THE ARM – GOOD ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
Heaps of speed off the front here with ATLAS ALLIANCE
(2), UBRINGTHEDRINKS (3) & IN MONACO (5) all super fast
beginners. They will burn the track early while LADY PENROSE (1) drifts
back along the pegs. Expect TOULOUSE LAUTREC (4) to go in search of the
breeze with OUR BLACKBIRD (7) a& THE SMILER (11) two of
several who will look to ambush their rivals with one late run.
Race 8 – PACE QUICK OFF THE ARM – GOOD ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
HELLOVA PARTY (1) begins pretty well but AALYAH
ROSE (6) & particularly JIMMYS GEM (7) are likely to go forward
in search of forward positions soon after the start. DARCY TEE (2) is a
natural enforcer who should be looking for the chair while dangerous
sit-sprinters like SUMMER ACE (5) and LATERRON (12) will be
hoping for plenty of early speed to dive-bomb their rivals in the lane.
Race 9 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – SLOW ONCE THEY
SETTLE DOWN
MARK DENNIS (3) s an established leader who may have
to battle with THE RAGPICKERS DREAM (1) for the early lead but should
take the top soon after the start. That would likely leave HUNG JURY
(2) in the breeze with STYLISH JASPER (5) handy after a typically
fast start. ASTRAL FLIGHT (8) may benefit from the same peg-line run she
used to snare victory at this course last time out.
Race 10 – PACE EXCELLENT OFF THE ARM – SLOW ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
Several quick beginners in this small field including CONFLICT
OF INTEREST (2) and CAULONIA BABE (4) however class runner CHARLIE
MACHSHEEN (5) should bully his way to the front after the early burn.
STEAM WASHED (3) & MADAM POM POM (6) should be in the
running line throughout the final lap.
Race 11 – PACE GOOD OFF THE ARM – GENUINE ONCE
THEY SETTLE DOWN
SPORTY MAC (2) is a very slick beginner sho should
find the pegs first and have options once he does. If he holds the top then NATS
SURVIVAL (3) & PUBLIC PERSUASION (11) will have to race tough
with CORBIN LEE (5) handy and EXTREMELY GOOD (8) buried along the
pegs while if he hands up it will likely be to NATS SURVIVAL (3) and
little else will change.
Race 12 – PACE EXCELLENT IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW
ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
Really tough race to read although TENDAHO (6) should
occupy a forward role along with SONOFPACO (4) while fellow classy
runners like MYGREEKKALESA & HUGGERS LAST (8) will need to
make long, sustained runs from the back for success.
BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)
My Temudjin (Race 2 no. 9) ($3)
Had no luck whatsoever at Kilmore last start where he was
trapped three-deep the trip from barrier 7 and did a super job to run second to
Lively Operative in slick time. He was super winning here first up from New
Zealand prior and with a nice run through expected tonight from the trailing
draw he is a leading contender. Click here to view the run.
Our Walden Bury (Race 2 no. 12) ($3.50)
This guy had no luck at all first up for Glenn Douglas at
Bendigo 9 days ago when held up badly until entering the straight before
rocketing home into fourth behind Narre Boy. He has a task tonight from the
extreme draw but may be lucky enough to gain a drag into it and will be hard to
hold out at the business end with his customary sprint. Click here to view the run.
Arber (Race 4 no. 4) ($3)
Has been competing at Country Cup’s level of late and his
last start fourth to Veranjee in the Stawell Cup was great and a very good form
pointer for tonight’s race. He normally pings the tapes and although off 10m he
only has three runners in front of him, should take up a forward position and
be might hard to beat. Click here to view the run.
STAR TRIALLERS
Dieing Secret (Race 5 no. 11) $2.10 TAB Fixed Odds
Top class filly resuming from a break tonight off the back
of an easy trial success at Ballarat 12 days ago where she only rated 2:07.6
but did slip home in a brisk 28 seconds. She has the poor draw to overcome,
plus some quality opposition, but she showed plenty of talent last season and
this looks well within her grasp first up.
Matty Chrimes (Race 6 no. 3) $2.80
Classy 6YO who looks ready to go first up after trialling
stylishly at Shepparton in recent weeks, the latest of those 8 days back where
he ripped home in 56.4. He draws nicely for his return and whether he musters
the speed to lead or sits close to the pace he is sure to make his presence
felt fresh. Click here to view his most recent trial.
BLACK BOOKERS – (Mildura Yesterday)
Our Flyin Jazz
Was having his first run back in the area yesterday and
indicated he will be winning again very soon after hitting the line strongly
from the rear for third to Can Go El in good sections. Click here to view the run.
Uncle Wingnut
Got into a little bit of strife shortly after the start but
recovered well and was noted making up stacks of ground out wide on the course
for a narrow second to Mister Rhys. Click here to view the run.
PLIGHT OF THE POLEMARKER
The Numbers Behind Barrier 1 @ Melton's Tabcorp Park
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