Friday, November 30, 2012

Good Form Friday - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park


The Game Plans for Melton

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
                         
Best Bet

Well Hello Dolly (Race 4 no. 1) $3.50
I do have a soft spot for this mare after having a nice win on her a few weeks ago but every scenario I can think of points to her getting the gun run behind the leader.
She won’t be the juicy odds she was last start but she is in career best form and I’m happy to have a good crack at her once more knowing she’ll get every chance.

All-up
There are two stone cold morals on tonight’s program; Smoken Up and Restrepo and I’m keen to couple them with my best bet Well Hello Dolly. Below is how I’m playing with $100 total spend.  I’m taking one with all three to salute and another with Well Hello Dolly to run a place as insurance.

Race 4 no. 1 Well Hello Dolly WIN
Race 7 no. 10 Smoken Up WIN
Race 11 no. 8 Restrepo WIN

$30 will return you approximately $230.

Race 4 no. 1 Well Hello Dolly PLACE
Race 7 no. 10 Smoken Up WIN
Race 11 no. 8 Restrepo WIN

$70 will return you approximately $230.

Quaddie
1,2,6,8/ 6,7,10,11/ 3,6,8,9/ 10.  $50 gets you 156.25%

Big6
9,11,12,14,15/ 1,2,6,8/ 6,7,10,11/ 3,6,8,9/ 10/ 10.  $100 gets you 31.25%

The Game Plan for Melton

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Roughie

Ubringthedrinks (Race 4 no. 6) ($26)
I’m actually a little bit excited about this one. And here’s why. This guy is easily the quickest beginner off the front line and with every horse drawn inside him prepared to hand up (including Alchemy in my opinion) I can see this guy cruising to the top and either sitting up in search of a soft quarter or handing up if the pressure gets too much. Either way, he is a short-course specialist who should run 1:55 and change from the lead or the trail. Back him each way and hold your breath at the start. You’ll know your fate in under 5 seconds.

Best Quinella

Steam Washed (Race 2 no. 1) & Real Hammer (Race 2 no. 7)
This wager is a little risky but there should be a reasonable reward if things turn out to plan. The theory here is that Real Hammer, who is one of Victoria’s fastest horses off the arm will fly across and find the front with 100m of the start with Steam Washed either holding his back into the first turn (70%) or ending up three pegs at worst (30%). Real Hammer only knows one way so he’ll run them along throughout and given I rate Steam Washed the second best horse in the race I’m confident she’ll finish second at worst, even if she’s buried in the run.

Best Trifectas

Race 8
The draw hasn’t been kind to Sapphire Swayze (10) with two key scratchings inside him here but he is such a natural athlete that I think he’ll overcome any obstacles placed in front of him. Even if he does get strung up in traffic I’m confident he’ll finish no worse than second so here’s how I’m playing with a $100 spend.

10/ 1,2,3/ 1,2,3. $60 gets 1000%.
10/ 1,2,3/ 7,12. $18 gets 300%.
1,2,3/ 10/ 1,2,3. $18 gets 300%.
1,2,3/ 10/ 7,12. $4 gets 66.66%.

Best First 4

Race 11
Several scratchings here have only further ensured that Charlie Machsheen (2) & Restrepo (8) will finish first and second. Restrepo (8) has benefited big-time from those scratchings but I still think either horse can win. From there it’s a process of elimination to find the horses who can run third & fourth & below is what I’ve come up with.

2,8/ 2,8/ 1,3,4,5,9/ 1,3,4,5,9. $100 gets 250%.

Quaddie
1,2,4,6,9,11,12/ 6,7,10,11/ 3,4,5,6,8,9/ 10. $100 gets 59.52%.

BIG6
1,3,4,9,11,12,14,15/ 1,2,4,6,9,11,12/ 6,7,10,11/ 3,4,5,6,8,9/ 10/ 10. $100 gets 7.44%.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk

Geoff Webster

Best Chance

Charlie Machsheen (Race 11 no. 2)
“I’m very confident that we can turn the tables on Restrepo. The talk is that he (Restrepo) is a superstar and the Tonkin’s have had a few so they know what one is. If he’s as good as they say he is he’ll beat me but I’ll be out in front and rolling and I’m really happy with Charlie. He’s a little bit immature but when his on song he’s a really nice horse and I’m not sure there’s that much between them.”

Others

Real Hammer (Race 2 no. 7)
“He’s first up but he did trial the other night where he led and won quite easily. Overall we’re very happy with him. The barrier’s a little issue but being 1720m we’ll have to go forward and he’s pretty close to spot on so really looking forward to seeing how he goes.”

Me An Kel (Race 3 no. 12)
“He had a cold a couple of weeks back but he’s well over that and he actually worked really good on Wednesday morning. We’re really happy with him; he’ll have a lot of traffic to negotiate and it’s a hard race to work out but ability wise he should be winning a couple of metropolitan races pretty quickly so he’s well placed in this.”

Mister Zion (Race 6 no. 9)
“Last week just didn’t work out to plan. The race got to be sort of handlebars down about the 1200(m) and I was the one three wide and working so I was still happy with the run. This time we’re drawn the back row and the one-time I drove him back in the field he won quite impressively so while I’ll make my mind up when I’m out there I’d be more than happy to drive him quietly if the tempo was genuine.”

Lets Slash An Burn (Race 7 no. 5)
“Pilot error killed him last time; it was a shocking drive by me so I can’t really blame the horse. He’s worked well again this work and driven a little bit quieter with a bit more patience he night go a lot better. With the right sort of trip he’s always handy and he’s usually not far away from them.”

SPEED MAPS
Please follow @HRVinformer for any change of tactics or late scratchings.

Race 1 – PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE LAST 600M


There are a few quick beginners drawn the front line here but expect MACHIN OUT (1) to hold his rivals wide into the first turn. With no genuine enforcers engaged the speed should be slow for most of the race with ROCKSTAR RULER (6) and ECHEVERIA (9) pouring the pressure on late and JUST LIVE LIFE (5) and BALLOCHBUIE (2) looking to ambush their rivals from handy positions in transit.

Race 2 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT


This is another race with a number of handy beginners but REAL HAMMER (7) absolutely flies the arm and should spear across these pretty quickly if Greg Sugars so desires. STEAM WASHED (1) will want to hold the leaders back while CHEVEYO (2) and WESTERN ROCKSTAR (5) should look for handy positions in transit. METRO MIKE (6) & BELLASARIO (4) are the late closers.

Race 3 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT LAST LAP


Stand start trots are always tricky to map but ORLANDOS DREAM (1) has led from the tapes and the mobile recently and should look to hold the top again here.  BELLINGHAM (11) & ME AN KEL (12) are tough types who’ll be pouring the pressure on while ALEPPO MIDAS (9) & SPARKS IGNITE (14) will be looking to close late along with huge talent but dubious beginner GOLDSTAR INVASION (15).

Race 4PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT


WELL HELLO DOLLY (1), ALCHEMY (2) & UBRINGTHEDRINKS (6) are all beginners but UBRINGTHEDRINKS (6) should have the toe to find the pegs first if he comes out as quickly as he can. In that scenario WELL HELLO DOLLY (1) & ALCHEMY (2) would both settle handy with TOULOUSE LAUTREC (12) almost certain to find the breeze throughout the middle stages.

Race 5 PACE GENUINE EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN


SHES IRRESISTIBLE (1), ITS DUTCH COURAGE (2), BORN AGAIN SASSY (5) & BEACH MELODY (6) all begin well and it will e an interesting battle of tactics to see who will get the lead. Regardless of that BLUCOLLA TIGERPIE (10) is likely to whip around and pour the pressure on through the middle stages with NATIONAL GALLERY (7) & FLYING POCKETLANDS (11) charging at their rivals in the lane.

Race 6 – PACE GENUINE EARLY – PRESSURE TO GO ON FROM THE 800M


Once upon a time I DIDNT DO IT (6) would have crossed his rivals in a stride but he isn’t as blistering off the arm anymore. Still expect him to push forward and find the front at some stage with EARL OF MOT (7) racing tough and MOTU YOUNG JACOB (3), ALEPPO SUNRISE (4) & KASYANOV (5) lobbing handy in the run. MISTER ZION (9) is likely to come with one searching run at them in the final lap.

Race 7 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY STAGES – GENUINE THROUGHOUT


MISTER GRIZZLY (6) holds the key here as he’s probably the quickest beginner off the front line but whether he flies the arm or not and what he does if and when he finds the front may dictate the race. One certainty is that SMOKEN UP (10) will be looking for the breeze or the lead soon after the start and that HEZA TRICK (3) & LETS SLASH AN BURN (5) will race handy from their draws.


Race 8PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN


This is a tough race to read but UNION BELLE (2) should find the pegs first with ARRIENS (1) behind her and FOREST FURY (3) racing handy – potentially in the breeze - throughout the early/mid stages of the race. Scratchings have ensured SAPPHIRE SWAYZE (10) will be in a pocket early but Gavin Lang should be off the pegs and whipping around them in search of the lead pretty early on.

Race 9 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN


SHES A HEAD TURNER (3) & ITS ALL ME (4) are the best beginners off the front line & one of them should lead. The most likely leader is SHES A HEAD TURNER (3). CANADIAN DREAM (6) should push forward from her wide draw with all of the classy back row runners playing cat and mouse at the rear of the field which should ensure a reasonably moderate tempo for a sprint affair.

Race 10 – PACE GENUINE IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN


MARK DENNIS (2), GRINNERSAWINNER (4) & BLANCE POINT (5) can all fly the arm so there could be a bit of swisho early here but it would be a minor shock if MARK DENNIS (2) were crossed at the start. If MARK DENNIS (2) leads then JIMMYS GEM (1) should get the gun run behind the speed while a horse like SUMMER ACE (3) will need a few breaks in running to ambush his rivals late.

Race 11 – PACE SLOW IN EARLY SECTION – PRESSURE TO GO ON FROM 800M


Several scratchings have changed the complexion of this race but a couple of things remain close to certain. One is that CHARLIE MACHSHEEN (2) will either ping or work his way to the lead in the early part of the race. The other is that RESTREPO (8) will be off the pegs in 50m and looking for the breeze or lead soon thereafter. They should dominate with BLACK AND YELLOW (1) well placed if it holds the leaders back.

Race 12 – PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE FROM 800M


ULTIMATE DEAL (4) has led at his past couple of starts and should do so again if he begins as quickly as he can with GIVITANAME (5) favoured to occupy the breeze. ADISTACTOS (1) should get a soft run in transit from the draw while horses like ALGEEPEE (10), YAKUZA (3) & OUR MADAGASCAR (7) will be hoping for a genuine tempo so they can swap their rivals in the lane.


BLACK BOOKER – (Racing Tonight)

Restrepo (Race 11 no. 8) $1.70
Resumed from a break at Ballarat 8 days ago with an effortless victory where he finished off in an unheard of 25.9 with Gavin Lang barely moving on him. He should have little trouble getting away from the pegs early and even though Charlie Machsheen will give him a run, this guy looks in another class. Click here to view the run.

STAR TRIALLERS – (Racing Tonight)

Real Hammer (Race 2 no. 7) $3
He mixed it with some of the best 3YO’s going around last term and he looks ready for a first up kill going on his easy Ballarat trial success last Monday night. He draws the extreme alley but he is lightning off the arm, should have little trouble spearing to the lead and from there he will be tough to gun down.

Aleppo Midas (Race 3 no. 9) $3.50
She is a richly-talented mare who resumes from a break tonight off the back of a solid Maryborough trial victory last Sunday where she finished off in 28.7.
She can be a little risky on occasions, particularly from behind the strands, but if she makes a smooth beginning she is sure to be a major player.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Mildura Last Night)

Jordylan
Trailed through behind Superstar Xpress and had all kinds of trouble securing a clear crack at them in the straight and ended up an unlucky third. He had been racing in great form at Melton prior to that outing and will be winning again in the not too distant future. Click here to view the run.

Shakatomic
Was shoved 3 and 4-wide at the 600m and just kept coming at them in the stretch to run a gallant third to the impressive Shelby Cruzin. He is no star but showed last night that he is not far off breaking through and should do so in a suitable affair at Mildura or Swan Hill soon. Click here to view the run.

THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE TAILAMADE LOMBO

Last week we brought you The Numbers Behind The Legends. This week we deliver The Numbers Behind The Tailamade Lombo - or more accurately the barrier stats relating to preferential barrier draw sprints for FFA mares at Melton's Tabcorp Park. And the numbers tell a singular story. Class (almost) always prevails. 




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