Good Form Friday - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

The Game Plans for Melton

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value Bet

Action Royale (Race 8 no. 9) ($8)

This mare improved nicely second up when chasing home boom pacer Pembrook Caesar & she thrives over the short course trip. Add to that the fact she’ll follow out fast beginner Heyles and may lob leaders back in transit & she seems super value tonight at anything better than $5 the win.

Best Quinellas

Mister Grizzly (Race 10 no. 7) & Cosmic Under Fire (Race 10 no. 8)

Put simply, one of these pacers, Mister Grizzly, arrives here fresh from defeating Melpark Major & Decorated Jasper in the Popular Alm Sprint while the other, Cosmic Under Fire, was narrowly beaten in the Maryborough Gold Cup & that rates them well above their rivals. They can settle anywhere in the run & still run one-two so smash the Quinella & play all your multiples around them fighting out the finish.

Alina (Race 12 no. 3) & Just Live Life (Race 12 no. 7)

These two pacers won heats of the #Goodform Pace Final at Geelong on Monday and also quite simply have their rivals covered for class. It has only aided their case that they’ve both drawn the front line and it would be a minor shock if they didn’t finish first & second here at much better value than our previous Quinella.

Quaddies x 2

1,2,3,5,6,8,11/ 1/ 2,6,7/ 3,5,6,9,10,11,12. $73.50 gets 50%

1,2,3,5,6,8,11/ 9/ 2,6,7/ 3,5,6,9,10,11,12. $26.50 gets 18.02%

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

Best Bet

Five Oclock Affair (Race 4 no. 8) ($7)

Has a terrific turn of speed and with the likelihood of him having the last shot at Dodge The Bullet he should sprint lane to victory.

Quaddies x 4

1,8,11/ 1/ 7/ 2,5,6,10,11,12.  $36 gets you 200%

1,8,11/ 2,9/ 7/ 2,5,6,10,11,12.  $36 gets you 100%

1,8,11/ 1/ 2,6/ 2,5,6,10,11,12.  $18 gets you 50%

1,8,11/ 2,9/ 2,6/ 2,5,6,10,11,12.  $10 gets you 13.88%

Big6’s (x4)

4,9,12/ 1,8,11/ 1/ 7/ 2,5,6,10,11,12/ 1,6,9.  $36 gets you 22.22%

4,9,12/ 1,8,11/ 2,9/ 7/ 2,5,6,10,11,12/ 1,6,9.  $36 gets you 11.11%

4,9,12/ 1,8,11/ 1/ 2,6/ 2,5,6,10,11,12/ 1,6,9.  $18 gets you 5.55%

4,9,12/ 1,8,11/ 2,9/ 2,6/ 2,5,6,10,11,12/ 1,6,9.  $10 gets you 1.54%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Ruth Shinn

Best Chance

Alina (Race 12 no. 3)

“She’s probably my best chance of the night if the race is run true. If it’s an honestly run race she’ll be right in it because she just keeps coming, like you saw last time at Geelong. On paper she’d my best hope of the night so fingers crossed they run it along and she can swamp them late in the race.”

Others

Cheveyo (Race 3 no. 9)

“He’s got to rely on luck. He can go good from behind but he’ll need a bit of luck from the second line. When he finds the front over a mile he’s a very good horse but as it is we’ll just have to hope there’s good speed on and we can rip home over the top of them at the finish. It’s a fair dinkum race but he’s  a nice little horse with a good turn of speed and he’s right in it.”

Its Dutch Courage (Race 4 no. 5)

“It just depends how hard to she has to work getting across them. If she can get across without doing too much work she’s some sort of chance. She’s needed racing because she’s a chubby little thing but we’re happy enough with her and she should acquit herself well.”

Armed Guard (Race 9 no. 6)

“He’s got a chance the way he’s going but he’s drawn that bad things are going to be tough. We would have much preferred him off the second line but he’s improving with every run and he’s not far away from a win.”

Last Sunrise (Race 11 no. 7)

“She’ll come out quick, that’s how she likes to race so I can see her going forward. Like a few others tonight it’ll all come down to how hard she has to work to find a spot but if she can lob a handy position without spending too much petrol she’s a chance. It’s not an over strong race so she shouldn’t be too far away.”

Castro (Race 12 no. 8)

“He’s going to need a lot of luck from the draw. He just had to work far too hard last start so you can put a line through that run but just like Alina he’s going to want  truly run race and a few gaps to open if he’s to win.

Speed Maps – 9 November 2012

Please note that all Speed Maps represent the predicted positions of horses with 800m to run as analysed by Harness Racing Victoria's form experts. For any Change of Tactics information please follow @HRVInformer on Twitter.

Race 1 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Plenty of pace off the front line with OVERTHORNS (3), LIFES A LOMBO (5) & SHJEEZ THE BARMAID (6) all go-forward horses with gate speed to burn. Expect OVERTHORNS (3) to hold them wide early or attempt a retake from whoever finds the front. OUR CRIME OF PASSION (12) is favoured to make a mid-race move in search of the breeze while MAJEUR LE CREST (4), LOMBO CLOUD NINE (10), CLAIRE JASPER (11) and VESPER LYND (13) are the late closers hoping to win from off the speed.

Race 2 – PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH LAST LAP

Not a huge amount of pace off front line where CHAMP DEVINE (2) & DREAM OF FLAIR (3) are favoured to fight out the early lead. Expect class runners LOVEYOUGOODBOY (10) & KYVALLEY BLUR (12) to rush forward & occupy forward positions soon after the start with EARL HARBOUR (11) & CONFUSED SUPERSTAR (13) tagging each other into the race through the final lap.

Race 3 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT LAST LAP

There are a number of quick beginners off the front line but OUR BULLER BOY (1) should be quick enough to hold the early lead with GO EL ZHAR (3) likely to lob the breeze and possibly make a play for the front if the lead is on offer. CHEVEYO (9) looks likely to be the first horse to peel wide at the bell while MAYBEBABY (5), LIVELY OPERATIVE (4) & BALLOCHBUIE (12) should all get soft runs but will rely upon luck to get a crack at their rivals late.

Race 4 – SPEED QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE FROM 800M ONWARDS

There should be a good early battle for the lead here with DODGE THE BULLET (1) & ALGRANCO ALIVE (2) both going forward from their inside draws but ITS DUTCH COURAGE (5) still likely to cross them from her wide front-line gate. JIMMYS GEM (6) is a one-paced warrior likely to find the breeze while BAD CAT (11) should cart up a three-wide line which may also comprise JORDYLAN (9), KREMLIN (10) and FIVE O CLOCK AFFAIR (8).

Race 5 – PACE MODERATE IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN THROUGH THE LAST LAP

He has retrained at the start from wide draws in two runs this campaign but it would be a shock if ROYAL VERDICT (1) didn’t lead from the ace alley tonight. DARCY TEE (4) is a front of the field horse that should push forward to find the breeze while OUR SON OF COURAGE (8) & WELL HELLO DOLLY (2) should lob leader back & one-by-one respectively. SUMMER ACE (9) will have the option of dropping three pegs or staying in the running line with ALCHEMY (12) & THE ADRIATIC (11) carting one another into the race late.

Race 6 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

SAUCY VISION (1) & THE SMILER (2) are two of the fastest beginners racing in this state and they should fight out the early lead with THE SMILER (2) almost certain to find the pegs within 400m. From there the key factor will be whether DECORATED JASPER (6) goes forward or back. If he goes forward then SMOKEN UP (7) may have to work hard to find the lead or breeze but in the more likely scenario that he goes back SMOKEN UP (7) should cross stablemate THE SMILER (2) and dictate the race from there.

Race 7 – SPEED GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT  FINAL LAP

This is a tough race to read with TOULOUSE LAUTREC (2), ALLWEVNEED (4), OUR ARLINGTON (5) & GUNS N ROSES (6) all capable of running the gate. Based on his last performance expect ALLWEVNEED (4) to find the pegs first with OUR ARLINGTON (5) in the breeze and WASHMEPOCKETS (9), BLUCOLL ATIGERPIE (10), YANKEE DREAM (11) & NATIONAL GALLERY (12) constituting a powerful three-wide line in the race’s final 800m.

Race 8 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Loads of pace off the front line again here with HEYLES (1), SATISFIED GRIN (2), STEAMING (3) & especially INCOMING FLIGHT (7) capable of flying the arm. Expect either HEYLES (1) or INCOMING FLIGHT (7) to find the pegs first with SAINT PETERSBURG (6) most likely to land in the breeze. ACTION ROYALE (9) should get a soft trip somewhere on the pegs and be dangerous from wither the leaders back or three back the inside once they enter the lane.

Race 9 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Based on his last start from behind the mobile BACKINA LIFETIME (1) will lead these easily at the start but he is a hand-up horse by nature who should take a trail behind another front line runner, most likely either OUR DOLLY WOULD (3) or LIGHTNING JOY (5). I SEE ICY EARL should push forward to find the breeze if circumstances permit with PRETTYLITTLEANGELEYES (9) & NO EARLY SPARK (11) needing to make sustained runs from the back if they are to win.

Race 10 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Popular Alm Sprint winner MISTER GRIZZLY (7) holds the key here. He is lightning quick off the arm when asked for an effort early and could cross this lot within 100m. If that likely scenario eventuates he’ll be trailed by either MISTER DOUGLAS (2) or GIVEITANAME (1) with COSMIC UNDER FIRE (8) off and around then to find the breeze pretty early on and SEVENTH SON (5) in the one-by-one. If MISTER GRIZZLY (7) goes back then COSMIC UNDER FIRE (8) should eventually find the front and the race will change complexion entirely.

Race 11 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

ARCTIC WOLF (1) & DEE TWO HUNDRED (3) both love to run the gate & one of the two should be in front early here. Whichever horse leads LAST SUNRISE (7) looks likely to draw up outside and settle in the breeze. MYGREEKALESA (6) is another quick beginner who’ll lob handy while horses like GLUTEUS MAJOR (10), THE DUTCHMAN (12) and DARTRENZAC (13) will have to make their own luck from back in the field to win.

Race 12 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Bit of pace off the front line here but RHINESTONE COWGIRL (5) flew the arm last start at Geelong and should be first to the pegs once more tonight. The key here is whether JUST LIVE LIFE (7) goes forward or back. If he goes forward as expected the lead should be his at some point which would leave SHEILA BLIGE (1) & CASTRO (8) buried on the pegs. ALINA (3) should race handy & peel out for one crack at them late.

STAR TRIALLER – (Racing Tonight)

Kyvalley Blur (Race 2 no. 12) ($6)

Talented Chris Lang-prepared 5YO who won 3 of his 9 outings last season and looks ready to run a big race first up tonight going on his latest trial second to open class performer Xanderxav at Shepparton 10 days ago. Click here to view the trial.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)

Cheveyo (Race 3 no. 9) ($9)

This guy was easily the most impressive of two heat winners at Geelong earlier in the week when finding the front early on and then burying his rivals with a succession of quick quarters from there on in. He’ll have to do it tougher from the second line tonight but has the talent to win. Click here to view the run.

Summer Ace (Race 5 no. 9) ($6.50)

Caught the eye last week when a fast finishing third to Beach Melody where he made up plenty of ground in a 27.2 final quarter. He will need the right kind of run tonight to topple Royal Verdict but is definitely in with a shot should things go his way. Click here to view the run.

Blucolla Tigerpie (Race 7 no. 10) ($4.50)

Got shuffled back to midfield with horses all around her in the Maryborough Cup last time but once she got clear in the straight she rocketed into fourth spot behind Saint Flash. She looks like getting a decent tag into it tonight, possibly on the back of Washmepockets, and watch for her to unleash the fury in the stretch. Click here to view the run.

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