Thursday, November 1, 2012

Good Form Preview - Shepparton Tonight


THE GAME PLAN for Shepparton – with Jason Bonnington

Best Bet
Did It Alone (Race 6 no. 2) ($3.50)
This guy is yet to break through this season but he gets conditions to suit here. An excellent beginner on his day, he looks a great chance of finding the front  in a race lacking any obvious pressure and after running a final half of 55.7 last start (see yesterday’s Melton sectionals) it would be a massive shock to see him rolled tonight.

Big Value Quinella
Modern Velocity & Fine Exception (Race 1 no’s 3 & 1)
These two pacers have been marked $5 & $6 in today’s Herald Sun but I think they’re a massive chance of running one-two.  The theory here is that Modern Velocity, a brilliant beginner, will cross & find the front with Fine Exception on his back. Both horses are ideally suited by the sprint trip & could kick the night off to a sensational starts if they’re the first two past the post.

Best Trifectas – Race 6
2/ 5,8/ 1,3,5,6,7,8,10 = $60 for 500%
2/ 1,3,6,7,10/ 5,8 = $20 for 200%

Quaddies (x2)
1,3,5,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,7,8,9,10,11/ 2/ 1,4,7 =$73.50 gets 50%
1,3,5,7,8,9,10/ 1,2,7,8,9,10,11/ 5,8/ 1,4,7 = $26.50 gets 9.01%

THE GAME PLAN for Shepparton – with Michael Polster
   
Best Bet
Ashira Bromac (Race 5 no. 11) ($2.50)
Handy Adam Kelly-prepared mare that was a Bendigo winner from this draw four back and has had no luck whatsoever since. There should be some pace in the early stages which will suit her sit-sprint style of racing and watch for her to be charging at them late.

Best Value Bet
Goldenorro (Race 7 no. 1) ($4)
Was doing his best work late at the end of a 56.6 last half when fifth to Grinnersawinner at Bendigo first up from a break. He will be fitter, draws to trail likely leader Wattabout A Smile and will be extremely hard to hold out via the passing lane.  

The Money Race (Race 6)
Did It Alone (leader) and Dusty Smiles (three pegs) look like dominating with Algrancos Icon (leaders back) a great value place chance.
Here’s how I’m attacking the race with a $100 total spend.

Place:  No. 1 Algrancos Icon x $25
Quinella:  Did It Alone and Dusty Smiles x $25
Trifectas:  2,8/ 2,8/ 1  x $7 which gets you 350%  and  2,8/ 2,8/ Field x $18 which gets you 100% 
First Fours:  2,8/ 2,8/ 1/ Field x $16 which gets you 100%  and  2,8/ 2,8/ Field/ 1 x $9 which gets you 56.25%

Quaddies (x2)
1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10/ 11/ 2,8/ 1,4,7.  $60 gets you 125%
1,2,3,5,7,8,9,10/ 1,8,9/ 2,8/ 1,4,7.  $40 gets you 27.77%


Black Bookers (Racing Tonight)
Givitaname (Race 3 no. 7) ($4)
This fellow put the writing on the wall with a terrific and unexpected third at Melton three starts back then produced another super tough effort at Kilmore last time out. Claimers are always tough and his wide draw is an obstacle but don’t underrate this guy now he’s back in form. Click here to view his most recent run.
Hezfullarunning (Race 5 no. 1) ($3.70)
This John Newberry-trained pacer was a Black Booker in the first ever Good Form blog and he’s done nothing since to suggest he won’t continue his charge through the classes in Victoria. The polemarking draw is no spoil for him tonight as he’s not quick off the arm and prefers to roll along in his races but after another positive effort last start he’ll still be tough to beat. Click here to view his most recent run.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Mildura Last Night)

Our Walden Bury
Sustained a long run out three and four wide from the rear when the leaders were humming and did a good job to run second to Fergus Maccool. He needs a few things to go his way to be at his most potent but is sure to be winning one very soon on last night’s effort. Click here to view the run

STAR TRIALLERS – (Racing Tonight)

Yakuza (Race 3 no. 6) ($5.50)
Hasn’t been seen for a year and a half but he has trialled well at Geelong and Cranbourne recently to blow the cobwebs out. He is more than handy on his day and tonight’s claiming race looks well within his grasp first up from a lengthy break.



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