Good Form Preview - Legends night @ Melton

The Game Plans for Legends night @ Melton

 
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Value

Washies Chance (Race 1 no. 3) ($11)
Talented type with an excellent standing start record who was luckless at first run for Jamie Ennis.

Grinnersawinner (Race 4 no. 6) ($9)
This bloke has been outstanding in two of his past three runs and should outclass these if at his best.

Lady Penrose (Race 6 no. 1) ($5.50)
Top mare who drilled Beach Melody four back and draws to win if she can hold the leaders back.

Money Race

Race 2
Pembrook Caesar (3) looks a class above her rivals here. She should lead & win at a pretty short quote so I advise playing two tricky Trifectas & hoping some value will make it all worthwhile. I’m playing like this.

3/ 4,8/ 1,2,4,6,8,11,12. $48 gets 400%.
3/ 1,2,6,11,12/ 1,2,4,6,8,11,12. $52 gets 173.33%.

Best Quinellas

Race 5
Mustang Mach (Race 5 no. 10) & Jaccka Clive (Race 5 no. 12)
Quite simply these are a pair of Group 1 pacers facing horses who are not in their class. What makes thing seven better is that Jaccka Clive should return to dominating from the top end, as he will be off and looking for the lead or the chair soon after the start, while Mustang Mach is a sit-sprinter by nature who will be charging after him at the knock.

Race 10
Cosmic Under Fire (Race 10 no. 8) & Thats Mister Ali (Race 10 no. 7)
This should be another case of the cream rising to the top.  Cosmic Under Fire has been one of Victoria’s two or three best Claimers all season and simply doesn’t know when to quit while Thats Mister Ali is an M7 who finished third to Saint Flash & Bitobliss soon after beating a better field than this four starts back so they should be running one-two (almost) for sure.

Quaddies (x2)

1,2,3,6,7,8,9,11/ 10,12/ 1,4,9,11,13/ 3. $40 gets 50%.

1,2,3,6,7,8,9,11/ 10,12/ 1,4,9,11,13/ 1,4,8,9,11,12. $60 gets 12.5%.

Michael Polster (@MickPolster)

The Money Races

Race 2

Trifecta: 3/ 1,4,11/ 1,2,4,6,8,11,12.  $50 gets you 277.77%

First Four: 3/ 1,4,11/ 1,2,4,6,8,11,12/ 1,2,4,6,8,11,12.  $50 gets you 55.55%

Race 5

Trifecta: 10,12/ 10,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11.  $35 gets you 250%

Trifecta: 10,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11/ 10,12.  $15 gets you 107.14%
First Four: 10,12/ 10,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11.  $35 gets you 41.66%
First Four: 10,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11/ 10,12/ 1,3,4,6,8,9,11.  $15 gets you 17.85%

Quaddies (x8)

1/ 10,12/ 4/ 3.  $15 gets you 750%

1/ 10,12/ 4/ 8,10,11,12.  $10 gets you 125%
1/ 10,12/ 1,2,3,9,11,13/ 3.  $15 gets you 125%
1/ 10,12/ 1,2,3,9,11,13/ 8,10,11,13.  $10 gets you 20.83%
3,6,9,11/ 10,12/ 4/ 3.  $15 gets you 125%
3,6,9,11/ 10,12/ 4/ 8,10,11,12.  $10 gets you 31.25%
3,6,9,11/ 10,12/ 1,2,3,9,11,13/ 3.  $15 gets you 31.25%
3,6,9,11/ 10,12/ 1,2,3,9,11,13/ 8,10,11,13.  $10 gets you 5.20%



Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk

Glenn Douglas

Best Chance

Born Again Sassy (Race 4 no. 1)
“She looks really well placed. She’s got speed and her last run was probably the best she’d had for us. She worked pretty hard and in the end she was only beaten by a pretty nice horse (Beach Melody). There’s a lot in her favour here and she should be in it again.”

Others

Run Forrest (Race 1 no. 2)
“He was very good at Gunbower. This is a step up in class and it’s his first go at the stand but I’m confident he’ll go away and if he does he’ll be right in it.”

Pacific Soul (Race 1 no. 12)
“He’s a nice horse when he’s right and you saw how well he can go last weekend at Melton. He’s got a few little issues which always makes things hard and he’ll need the breaks to go his way again but he’s also good enough to figure if everything works out in the run.”

Palazzo Bromac (Race 2 no. 10)
“The favourite (Pembrook Caesar) looks very hard to beat but the rest are a pretty even lot and if the breaks go his way he won’t be disgraced.”

Jukebox Music (Race 5 no. 3)
“The bottom line with this guy is that he’s an opportunist. He ran an improved race last time but everything with him depends upon getting luck at the right time. If he gets it he’s a place chance at least if he doesn’t he’s in trouble.”

Ubringthedrinks (Race 6 no. 8)
“This guy’s a free-wheeling horse who would have been much better placed off the front line. As it is he looks like he’ll be three back the pegs and it’s hard to see him figuring from there.

Jordylan (Race 6 no. 11)
“He’s been sensational at his past two starts. I actually think he went better last start than he did at his previous win. He’s drawn awkwardly and he’ll need luck but he couldn’t be going any better so we’ll see how we go.”

Heza Trick (Race 7 no. 4)
“There’s no doubt he’s needed a few runs to get back towards his best and I’m still not sure he’s quite at his top. The draw also looks tricky for him now Dominus Vobiscum has got a run and they’ll all be looking to kick up inside of us but he’s a quality horse and he can do it tough.”

Saint Flash (Race 7 no. 7)

“He’s obviously doing this year what Heza Trick was doing last year and we still don’t know how good he is. He’s drawn badly as well but I reckon we’re going to learn a fair bit more about him after this race. One thing in his favour is he’s rock hard fit so I probably rate him the better chance of our two in the race.”

Megasam (Race 10 no. 2)

“He’s another one who’s had a long, long time off the scene and is only just getting back into the swing of things. At his best this race would suit but he may still be a couple of runs away from showing what he can do.”

Speed Maps – 24 November 2012

 Race 1 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION  - OK ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

BUBBLE ART (4) is probably the quickest beginner off the front line but he’ll be looking to hand the lead up pretty quickly so any of WASHIES CHANCE (3), WHEATSHEAF AVABALL (5) or KID COCONUT (8) could find themselves in front. OUR ARLINGTON (13) is likely to work up and find the breeze or lead the three-wide line while DUAL AGENT TABMAN (1) will be handy & the others will need luck.

Race 2 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

PEMBROOK CAESAR (3) possesses very good gate speed & a genuine intimidation factor so she should be in front within 100m with either FIND TIME TO CRUISE (1) or ACTION ROYALE (2) sitting on her back. MAYBEBABY (4) & THE KINGSTON FLYER (6) should push forward and lob handy roles with AMAJORJO (11) leading the three-wide line and JUST LIVE LIFE (12) well back in the run.

Race 3 – PACE GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

GAZOLINE (1) & BACKINA LIFETIME (2) are the quickest beginners from the standing start and should dispute the early lead.  Whichever wins that battle, they’ll both lob forward positions in transit with CHUCK WAGON (4) & ROCKIN WILMA (9) likely to race tough and BILLY THE BRAT & ALBAMA SKEETA (11) most likely to swamp their rivals from beyond midfield in the run.

Race 4 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Plenty of toe off the front line here with BORN AGAIN SASSY (1), PEACES OF YOU (2), SHES IRRESISTIBLE (5) & GRINNERSAWINNER (6) all capable of flying the arm. Any of those can lead but expect either BORN AGIN SASSY (1) or GRINNERSAWINNER (6) to find the front with CLAIRE JASPER (3) handy & SHANDON VILLAGE (7) & CENTONIC (9) coming with one run at their rivals late.

Race 5 – PACE SLOW IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGH THE FINAL LAP

Almost certain that ALCHEMY (1) or TOULOUSE LAUTREC (4) will lead here with the former horse very likely to hold up from his ideal polemarking draw. That will leave OUR BLACKBIRD (8) with the gun run in behind the speed. JACCKA CLIVE (12) appears equally certain to make an early move in search of the breeze with MUSTANG MACH (10) set to rattle late from a midfield role in transit.

Race 6 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – SPPED TO GO ON FROM THE 800M

BEACH MELODY (4)  has pretty good gate speed and should spear across those to her inside in search of the lead tonight. LADY PENROSE (1) is not a quick beginner but should be able to hold the leaders back with WASHMEPOCKETS (9) off in search of the breeze pretty quickly and horses like RONALD GEORGE (13) & JORDYLAN (11) needing pace in the race to swamp their rivals in the lane.

Race 7 – PACE QUICK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE SPEED RIGHT THROUGHOUT THE RACE

MISTER GRIZZLY (1) can sizzle off the arm & should be able to hold all his rivals wide through the early part of the race. It would be a shock if he handed up from there so BITOBLISS (3) & SMOKEN UP (9) will battle for the breeze with the former horse likely to win that role leaving SMOKEN UP (9) three wide without cover. MELPARK MAJOR (11) and DECORATED JASPER (12) are the big finishers.

Race 8 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

MOTU YOUNG JACOB (4) is the quickest beginner drawn the front line here and Gavin Lang should have the option of either holding the top or taking a trail in transit. Class runners ALEPPO SUNRISE (9) & EARL OF MOT (10) should be on their bike looking for forward positions pretty quickly with one if the two likely to find the front while fellow class runner GOLDSTAR INVASION (6) is a dubious beginner who should spot his main rivals a start in the run.

Race 9 – PACE OK IN EARLY SECTION – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

The scratching of Adhesive should pave the way for ORLANDOS DREAM (3) to find the front here although MARIOS DREAM (5) also begins quickly from the mobile start. EURASIAN HANOVER (2) & APOLLORITA (8) are likely to benefit from soft peg-line trips with CHAMP DEVINE (7), BALTIMORE BOY (10) & RAINBOW JAY JAY (10) all capable of doing work in the run and still figuring late.

Race 10 – PACE SLOW IN EARLY SECTION – SOLID FROM THE 600M

Difficult to find an early leader here although MISTER DOUGLAS (1) is likely to hold his rivals wide at least until COSMIC UNDER FIRE (8) whips around and forces the issue in the early/mid stages of the race. There is no chair horse engaged so expect little pressure until C Alford sends COSMIC UNDER FIRE (8) for home. THATS MISTER ALI (7) will be coming off the speed to issue his challenge late.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Racing Tonight)

Dual Agent Tabman (Race 1 no. 1) $4

Has been competing at Country Cups level of late and put the writing on the wall for this assignment with a cracking second to Veranjee in the Gunbower cup last Sunday. He loves the standing start conditions, draws to lead, or at worst sit just off the pace and he is sure to be a major player should things go to plan for him in the run. Click here to view the run.

Jordylan (Race 6 no. 11) $11

Ran a bottler in the Gordon Rothacker Memorial Final last week where he enjoyed a soft trip on the pegs and really sprouted wings late to run a slashing third to Well Hello Dolly in fast time. He will have to be driven for luck once more tonight from where he is drawn but he does have a booming finish on him these days and can blouse these if things go his way in the run. Click here to view the run.

STAR TRIALLERS - (Racing Tonight)

Bitobliss (Race 7 no. 3) $1.80

Comes off a stunning Kilmore cup triumph from the breeze over Caribbean Blaster a month ago and was sharpened up for this with a soft trial win at Bendigo last Sunday. He has the best of the barrier draw, should settle up on the pace and the way he is going at present his rivals will have their work cut out to get the better of him.

The Numbers Behind The Legends

With Victoria's richest short course feature run at Tabcorp Park tonight, Harness Racing Victoria's own Adrian 'Ace' Barlow has uncovered the best barriers over Melton's 1720m trip & the most succesful gates in The Legends over it's three renewals at Victorian Harness HQ.
Please note that the 'METRO' figures are inaccurate & a revised list for Metro Sprint Races at Melton will be included in Wednesday's Good Form blog!