Good Form Friday - 11 of the Best

THE GAME PLANS for Melton – with @MickPolster & @jasonbonnington

Michael Polster

                         

The Money Race (Race 4)

Beach Melody (leader) and D B Dazzler (leaders back) look like dominating with Braeside Falcon (three pegs) a great chance of filling 3^rd/4^th spot. Here’s how I’m attacking the race with a $100 total spend.

Quinella:  Beach Melody and D B Dazzler x $33

Trifectas:  1,2/ 1,2/ 8  x $13 which gets you 650%  and  1,2/ 1,2/ Field x $20 which gets you 100% 

First Fours:  1,2/ 1,2/ 8/ Field x $22.50 which gets you 125%  and  1,2/ 1,2/ Field/ 8 x $11.50 which gets you 63.88%

Quaddies (x2)

1,2/ 1/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9.  $50 gets you 500%

1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9.  $50 gets you 100%

Big6’s (x2)

1,3,5/ 1,2/ 1/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9/ 3.  $50 gets you 55.55%

1,3,5/ 1,2/ 3,4,5,6,7/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9/ 3.  $50 gets you 11.11%

‘Pot’ of the Night

I’m very keen to take on Lady Penrose in Race 5.  She looks almost certain to be crossed from the pole and will require luck from there on in. There are 3 horses that are quoted at double figure odds in this morning’s Herald Sun that can be backed straight out and should one of them win you will show a tidy profit. All three will be running the gate and should race in prominent positions throughout.

They are:  No. 4 Allwevneed ($15), No. 5 Pete Of Pan ($13) and No. 6 Mister Rhys ($11)

Jason Bonnington

Best Bet

Kotare Roland (Race 8 no. 3) ($1.70)

This ex-Kiwi campaigner has been outstanding in all three Aussie runs to date. He simply drilled Cyrus from the death two back before going down to equally smart stablemate Charlie Machsheen under similar circumstances last time out. He’ll lead tonight and if they knock him over here I’m up for doing dares!

Best Value

Pete of Pan ($13) & Mister Rhys ($11) (Race 5 No’s 5 & 6)

There’s no doubting that Lady Penrose is racing very well but she looks like opening too short for a horse that is likely to be crossed in the early stages. Pete of Pan is favoured to find the pegs first with every chance of handing the lead to Mister Rhys so those two pacers are worth an Each Way wager @ double figure odds.

Guns N Roses (Race 7 no. 5) ($11)

This bloke hasn’t had a lot of luck since beating Keayang Cullen in a stunning mile rate of 1:52.4 five starts ago. He has any amount of natural talent and actually looks well suited in this sort of field so consider him a legitimate blowout option - also at double figure odds.

Best Roughie/Place Bet

Wilwillwinsum (Race 8 no. 1) ($34)

He wasn’t at his best last start but this guy is pretty genuine as a rule & with the likelihood he’ll settle right behind by my Best Bet Kotare Roland I reckon he’s a massive chance to place and should be hammered at anything close to $3 the drum.

Best Exotics

Race 4 – Trifectas

1,2/ 1,2/ 8,9,10,11,13. $80 gets 800%.

1,2/ 8,9,10,11,13/ 1,2. $20 gets 200%.

Race 8 – Trifectas

3/ 1/ 2,5,8,11,12,13. $66 gets 1100%

3/ 2,5,8,11,12,13/ 1. $34 gets 566.67%

Quaddie

1,2,10/ 1,5,6/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9. $70 gets 155.56%.

1,2,10/ 4,7,8,11/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9. $30 gets 50%.

BIG6

1,5/ 1,2,10/ 1,4,5,6,7,8,11/ 5/ 1,2,5,7,9/ 3. $100 gets 47.62%.

Black Bookers (Racing Tonight)

Lady Penrose (Race 5 no. 1) ($2)

This Adam Kelly-trained mare was outstanding at Tabcorp Park two starts back when beating a crack field of mares then went to another level again when racing outside Cosmic Under Fire and only shaken off very late in the race. She is drawn a little awkwardly tonight but couldn’t be racing better and should go close with luck. Click here to view her most recent run.

Pete Of Pan (Race 5 no. 5) ($13)

He was in the same race as Lady Penrose last start and despite being very well beaten his run was very encouraging as he darted home with not a lot of room up the inside in the lane. The front line draw should suit him with his very good gate speed tonight so he’s not out of it at double figure odds. Click here to view his most recent run.

Alchemy (Race 6 no. 13) ($41)

This guy was up to his old tricks in a heat of tonight’s race when galloping at the start and losing 20 metres. In the end he was beaten under 10 metres so the run was enormous and while he’s virtually no chance of winning this evening keep an eye on him here and consider investing something small the place. Click here to view the run.

Me An Kel (Race 9 no. 5) ($3.50)

Got dragged back by a tiring runner before eventually getting into the clear and making up plenty of ground on winner Lightning Joy in a 58.4 final half last week. He meets Lightning Joy on equal terms this time around and with the right luck in running he has a great chance of turning the tables on that fellow. Click here to view the run.

BLACK BOOKERS – (Shepparton Last Night)

Loose Wire

Was let off the chain from his wide alley early on to race in the breeze and did a great job to run a narrow second to Smokinoff. He ran quick time to win at Wagga prior and will be winning again very soon on last night’s effort  for new trainer Wayne Potter.

STAR TRIALLERS – (Racing Tonight)

Bold Statement (Race 2 no. 9) ($5.50)

Won 3 of his 6 outings for Les Turner last season after crossing the Tasman and has had an extensive trial campaign the past month to ready him for this assignment. He is on debut from behind the tapes and has the 20m to contend with but with a smooth getaway this bloke should run well fresh.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Adam Kelly

Adam Kelly rates his four runners at Tabcorp Park tonight

Best Chance

Lady Penrose (Race 5 no. 1)

“The pole draw doesn’t necessarily suit her given she doesn’t possess a lot of gate speed but having said that she’s racing in excellent heart and she should take a lot of beating with just  a little bit of luck. She’s a pretty smart mare and definitely my best chance of winning on the night.”

Others

Shifting Sand (Race 4 no. 11)

“He hasn’t had very much luck at the draw of recent times and that’s the case again tonight but he’ll be put into the race at some point and if he’s good enough he’ll do well. He’ll need that slice of luck too but he’s not far away from another win and we’re happy with how he’s going.”

Takeiteasyonme (Race 5 no. 7)

“She’s done a better job for us that I thought she would and to be honest I don’t think she’s too far away from another win at Melton but I’m not sure that win will come tonight. Lady Penrose is definitely a better chance of winning the race but this mare won’t be disgraced if she gets the right sort of run.”

Guns N Roses (Race 7 no. 5)

“He’s got a lot of ability this horse. We’ve had a few little issues with him and there’s plenty of speed drawn inside us tonight so it won’t be easy but ability wise he’s right up there. I actually thought he was a better horse this campaign than last but his last start threw a spanner in the works. It’s probably more about whether he’s interested and we’ll only find that out when he races.”

Speed Maps – 2 November 2012

Please note that all Speed Maps represent the predicted positions of horses with 800m to run as analysed by Harness Racing Victoria's form experts.
For any Change of Tactics information please follow @HRVInformer on Twitter.

Race 1 – PACE OK EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

LOVEYOUGOODBOY (4) begins well from the mobile start and should have the right combination of speed and intimidation to work his way to the front with either MARIOS DREAM (2) or HEZA MAORI (1) behind him. CHAMP DEVINE (3) and LAST SUNRISE (5) are both go-forward horses  who should race handy while APOLLOS GIFT (13) will either  make a mid-race move to find the breeze or come three wide solo late in the race. All other runners will be relying on luck to get into the race.

Race 2 – PACE OK EARLY – EVEN ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

MYRNIONG PANORAMA (1) and LOVING LIFE LOMBO (2) are the best beginners from the strands but both are hand-up horses by nature who should relinquish the lead to either ON THE LURE (6), FUSION (4) or another horse through the early/middle stages. HIGHVIEW EBONY (10) is the class factor and she is likely to drill forward in search of the breeze from her 30m handicap if circumstances permit. BOLD STATEMENT (9) is also talented but may have to come with one run at them late.

Race 3 – PACE OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Expect LYCOMING RACER (4) to find the front first here before handing the ascendancy to MACHIN OUT (5) as soon as he sidles up outside the speed. As a result ONE MORE SMILE (1) may be buried three back the inside but in this small field N Jack may also be able to push off and find the breeze if things go his way. The others can’t do much work in their races which should contribute to a slowish speed throughout.

Race 4 – SPEED OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

BEACH MELODY (2) is at least as quick as any other runner drawn the front line here and should hold her rivals, including fellow early flyer ITS DUTCH COURAGE (4) out into the first bend. The short course should ensure she retains the lead with D B DAZZLER (1) stalking her throughout. SHIFTING SAND (11) has drawn poorly but should work his way to the breeze through the middle stages with SUMMER ACE (10) and BETTOR GIVE IT (13) relying on a late dash at them to win.

Race 5 – PACE QUICK EARLY – MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Good speed off the front line here but expect PETE OF PAN (5) to find the pegs first. He can lead or trail from there but over the middle distance expect him to hand up to a horse like MISTER RHYS (6) pretty early on. LADY PENROSE (1) may push up and hold them all wide but she may also be shuffled back on the inside if Gavin can’t find a gap to shift off while ALLWEVNEED (4) should be in the leading division throughout. The rest will have to come with one run at them late.

Race 6 – PACE OK EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

This is a reasonably slick front line but expect those inside CHANCELLOR CULLEN (5) to allow him to find the front fairly cheaply with AALYAH ROSE (1) and WELL HELLO DOLLY (2) fighting for the right to sit in behind. SAUCY VISION (7) should be jagged off the gate and settle back with VERANJEE (4) favoured to sit parked outside CHANCELLOR CULLEN (5) for the majority of the race.

Race 7 – SPEED OK EARLY – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

There’s little doubt THE SMILER (2) will cross and find the front within 50m here and over the sprint trip it’s hard to see him relinquishing the lead. That will leave WASHMEPOCKETS (1) with the gun run behind the leader and COUNT DE LIRA (8) sitting three pegs. GUNS N ROSES (5)is a good chance of occupying the breeze with DOMINUS VOBISCUM (9) & SIGN TO INVERELL (7) looking to pounce with one late dash.

Race 8 – PACE SLOW EARLY – REMAINING SLOW UNTIL FINAL 600M

WILWILLWINSUM (1) held KOTARE ROLAND (3) wide last time they met but expect him to hand the lead to that same horse on a platter this time around. Once KOTARE ROLAND (3) finds the front the speed should be slow with no genuine enforcer engaged. MASTER METALLICA (5) looks as good a chance as any of occupying the breeze with DOVES PATCH (8) well placed three back the inside in what looms as a peg-dominated affair.

Race 9 – PACE GOOD EARLY – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

Tough race to map with LIGHTNING JOY (1), GAZOLINE (2) and SONOFANEARL (6) all capable of leading early on. Expect LIGHTNING JOY (1) to find the front at some point even if he can’t hold them early on with ME AN KEL (5) punching the breeze in a carbon copy of their last encounter. MOTU YOUNG JACOB (12) looks likely to lead the three-wide line with every other runner needing luck to work into the race.

Race 10 – PACE OK EARL – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

EASY LIGHTNING (4) is a speedy beginner who should find the pegs first before holding the top or handing the ascendancy to MAJOR STEPPE (5). Once those positions are established there’s every chance the field will race in single file until the final part of the race.

Race 11 – PACE GOOD EARLY – SLOW ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN

QUADENTATE (2) & ELEVENTH COMMAND (3) should fight out the early lead but regardless of who wins that battle QUADENTATE (2) should end up in front with ELEVENTH COMMAND (3) on his back and the others  needing luck in a slowly run affair.

Tabcorp Park Barriers - Profit-Loss based on $1 investment
Last week we showed you all the winning strike rates from each barrier since Tabcorp Park was inaugurated. This week we're delving one step further by analysing where you would stand if investing $1 on every gate in every race run at Victoria's metropolitan home. Just like last week Gate 6 comes out on top.

Click here to bet on tonight's meeting.