Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets / All Up Formula 3 ($61.50)
Spidergirl (Race 2 No.3) $1.20
While Aleppo Midas may have something to say about this, I’m convinced Spidergirl (3) has raced her way to being Australia’s best trotting mare and although Maori Time (2) is closing the gap rapidly, I’m banking on class to tell late in a terrific race.

Lennytheshark (Race 5 No.3) $1.90
Guaranteed (1) is a new challenger on the block but Lennytheshark (1) has dominated his rivlas in three runs since returning from injury and visually he has been absolutely supreme. It’s had to tip against a Chariots Of Fire winner however Lennytheshark (1) is on his way to the top level and tonight should be another step in that directions.

Carmens Spirit (Race 9 No.8) $2.50
This guy was well supported at good odds on debut and he franked that with a good third to two pretty smart juveniles. The smaller field should suit him here and with a dearth of any superstars in the race, I think he can notch up the first of what could be many wins.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Onetolove (Race 1 No.9) $10
This mare loomed up to win last time and just hit the wall the last 100 metres but her run was better than the form guide may suggest. She comes back in distance to the sprint trip tonight and that should suit her down to the ground so with any sort of early speed, expect her to be roaring home at the finish.

Kool Kenny (Race 4 No.4) $7.50
This guy has had just one start and while he didn’t win, I still think he was satisfactory when holding down fourth. That was in a pretty good field and while this may be a bit on speculation, I think he should come back a better horse for his first preparation and any improvement at all over the break would make him the horse to beat here.

The Money Race
Race 2 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
As much as Spidergirl (3) is the horse they all must defeat here, I think Maori Time (2) is the clear second pick and only danger of rolling the favourite with Paris Pepperell (1) the obvious third rater. For that reason we will play the following trifectas.

3/2/1. $21 gets 2100%
3/2/4,6. $12 gets 600%
2/3/1. $8 gets 800%
2/3/4,6. $4 gets 200%

Race 6 ($56 worth of Flexi First Four’s)
Similarly to the above combinations, Lennytheshark (3) looks set for victory however Guaranteed (1) is to classy to ignore completely so with Ginger Bliss (7) a chance of sneaking into second or third, we will play the First Four’s outlined below.

3/1/7/4,5. $32 gets 1600%
1/3/7/4,5. $16 gets 800%
3/7/1/4,5. $8 gets 400%

Quaddies (x4 worth $112.50)
3/3,4,5,9,12/2,3,7/6,9. $45 gets 150%
3/3,4,5,9,12/2,3,7/3,4,7. $22.50 gets 50%
1/3,4,5,9,12/2,3,7/6,9. $30 gets 100%
1/3,4,5,9,12/2,3,7/3,4,7. $15 gets 33.33%

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