Thursday, June 5, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Yarra Valley

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($50 win)
Niki No No (Race 1 No.4) $1.60
This girl was terrific at her first two starts, showing a sharp sprint to win both in very good style. She stepped up to the Group 2 Home Grown Final last time and didn’t have a lot of luck when running fifth to Lovelist. In a small field she can sit almost anywhere and out sprint them at the knock.

Kiss Kenny (Race 2 No.5) $4
This girl is quickly improving to be considered in the upper echelon of 3YO fillies in Victoria and while she isn’t quite there yet, she has good gate speed and her last start domination has plenty of merit. If she brings her absolute best then only Quick Draft (2) and Better Downunder (7) can stand in her way. 

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Conchs Critter (Race 3 No.5) $51
Both Soho Ledger (8) and Jeter (3) will likely quinella this race all things being equal however when searching for value I think this guy could be worth some thought. In the small field I think he is as good a chance as any to finish into the minor money and if either favourite puts a foot out of place he could run right into the finish so at the monster odds he is worth a little bet.

The Money Race ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Race 7
This is a pretty handy and I think there are three horses that may well have a class edge on their rivals. Little Bit Sassy (4), Macworthy (5) and Adirmal Joy (6) have all shown promise and deserve to be rated clear of 2,3,7,9 so we will play the following combinations.

Boxed 4,5,6 $18 gets 300%
4,5,6/4,5,6/2,3,7,9. $15 gets 75%
4,5,6/2,3,7,9/4,5,6. $12 gets 50%

Quaddies (x2 worth $100)
1,5,7/5,6,7,9/3,9/4,5,6. $65 gets 90.27%
2,3,4/5,6,7,9/3,9/4,5,6. $35 gets 48.61

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