Thursday, June 12, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($50 win)
Vikenti (Race 2 No.4) $3
You can ignore the duck egg next to this guy’s name given he broke there but his form prior was simply terrific.  He won impressively at Cranbourne and Swan Hill and he looks like a horse who is on the way up, so with the scratching of his major danger in Jay Dee Zed (3), he should be very hard to roll.

Lord Liam (Race 6 No.10) $2.80
Although this may be his first standing start try, I’ve been impressed by the way Lord Liam (10) has gone about his business this preparation. His narrow second to Sunset Invasion last time was terrific and a repeat of any of his recent performances would make him hard to beat.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
The Octagon (Race 1 No.9) $7.50
This guy was serviceable when having his first Australian start last time and to be honest he was actually a fraction unlucky and while he must contend with the second row draw again, he proved in New Zealand he does have a bit of talent and toughness about him. He might take a while to wind up but I think at his best he is a serious winning hope in the first race.

Wolfpack (Race 7 No.7)
I’ve been taken by this little horse’s preparation so far. He continues to put in honest efforts and even from the wide draw I think he can do it again today. He may have only got the nod on the line last time but with a good margin back to third I’m certain the form will stand up well with the winner running a 56.4sec last half.

The Money Race
Race 3 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)
We all know how good Mindarie Priddy (1) is and while Berisari (2) is not yet her equal, she continues to get better with racing and should enjoy a soft run. For that reason we will play the following trifecta combinations with Shes A Runa (5), Smiling High (4) and Beach Shack (3) the three hopes for the minor end of the money.

1/2/3,4,5. $30 gets 1000%
1/3,4,5/2. $9 gets 300%
2/1/3,4,5. $6 gets 200%

Race 4 ($48 worth of flexi trifectas)
With three clear hopes in Real Performer (6), Art Prevails (8) and Onetolove (9), looking a little bit above their rivals, I think we can bank on one of them getting the job through three trifectas with Smokinoff (1), Border Patrol (3) and Eliska (7) the only other place hopes.

Boxed 6,8,9. $24 gets 400%
6,8,9/6,8,9/1,3,7. $15 gets 75%
6,8,9/1,3,7/6,8,9. $9 gets 50%

Quaddies (x2 worth $107)
6,8,9/1,2,5/10,11/5,6,7,8,9. $45 gets 50%
6,8,9/1,2,5/1,2,7,8,9/5,6,7,8,9. $62 gets 27.55%

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