Friday, June 20, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bets / All Up Formula 2 & 3 ($100 gets 25 units)

Our Dreamlover (Race 6 No.5) $2.20 TAB Fixed Odds

I love the way this guy was going about it as a 3YO. He was in an extraordinarily tough crop that included Blitzthemcalder and The Boss Man so to simply be competitive with those horses is the first sign he is up to this class. The second sign was his slashing first-up defeat where he was held up and sprinted viciously when clear. He has the fortitude to sit parked if required here and I’m certain he is the horse to beat.

Keayang Cullen (Race 7 No.2) $2.70

This guy is a blistering beginner and while Our Blackbird (5) and Five Star Anvil (6) can come out humming, you’d expect him to hold them comfortably to the first turn. His first-up effort to be run down on the line by Cold Major tells us he is back fit and firing and while Bitobliss (7) and Five Star Anvil (6) are some danger, I think over the mile they will have a mighty job catching him if he is in front.

Highview Conall (Race 8 No.1) $2.50

This fella hasn’t shown a lot of tactical speed in Victoria but he came off the arm OK at Charlton two starts back and while there is likely to be a bit of a battle for the front, I think he can hold a handy position. He was defeated last time when he couldn’t run down his rivals but that task is always harder over a mile and given he should be a lot closer to the speed tonight, and this is a little let up in class.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Tessanzo (Race 1 No.10) $7 TAB Fixed Odds

This isn’t the easiest race to have a punt in with the top two chances both coming off poor runs however I do think this girl is worth another chance. Her first-up run in Victoria was simply outstanding and while she may have to do it tough and come three-wide solo, I think she can expose any chink in The Good Times (6) armour.

Cyrus (Race 5 No.3) $4

If you isolated this guy’s last run he would be almost the best bet of the night. He was second up, worked hard for the top mid-race, and put them to the sword in 1:55.7. This race is loaded with not only talent, but front row speed and mid-race pressure so he will need things to fall his way, but if they do he will go very close.

The Money Races

Race 3 ($38 worth of Flexi First Four’s)

Brunelleschi (4) was thoroughly dominant last time and while he meets a stronger field here, he continues his ascension towards being one of Australia’s best trotters. If Aleppo Midas (5) could return to her best however she would be a serious threat of rolling him however with Glenferrie Dreamer (1) and Stoned I Am (6) also capable of filling the placings, we are going to play the following first fours.

4/5/1,6/1,6. $23 gets 1150%

5/4/1,6/1,6. $10 gets 500%

4/1,6/1,3,6/1,3,6. $5 gets 125%

Race 9 ($30 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

With four key winning chances in Wipem Dry (3), Hellovanite (5), Thats Mister Ali (7) and Our Eastwood Cullen (8), I think we can box them up in a pretty solid trifecta before making provisions for one of the other two chances to run into a place with the following bets.

Boxed 3,5,7,8. $24 gets 100%

3,5,7,8/3,5,7,8/4,9. $12 gets 50%

3,5,7,8/4,9/3,5,7,8. $8 gets 33.33%

The EARLY Quaddie (x1 worth $80)

1,3,5,6,10/1,7,10,12/4,5/1,2,5,8. $80 gets 50%

Quaddies (x5 worth $82)

3,7,10/5/2,6/1.  $30 gets 500%

3,7,10/11/2,6/1. $15 gets 250%

3,7,10/5/1,3,7,8,10/1. $15 gets 100%

3,7,10/5/2,6/2,3,4,5. $12 gets 50%

1,6,8,11,12/5/2,6/1. $10 gets 100%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Mile – Baby Bling: 1:54.79

Fastest Last Half – La Machane: 54.94secs
Fastest Last Quarter – My Zach Bromac: 26.29secs

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