Thursday, June 26, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday @ Melton

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bet ($40 win)

Phil Monty (Race 5 No.1) $1.60

I love the way this guy burnt the candle at both ends in his latest win. That was a 1:56.4 mile at Charlton which is pretty slick time for the course and he dismantled his rivals by almost 10 metres there. His debut in Australia came the start prior at Maryborough where he simply thrashed an easier field. This is a step up in grade but he is shaping as a pretty nice horse on the way up so expect him to continue his rise today.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Spidergrace (Race 4 No.5) $6

It’s hard not to be impressed by this guy. He has started to come into his own as a three-year-old and after three strong wins in NSW, nothing went his way in the NSW Derby. His run in the Holmfield where he was dragged back and galloped behind the tiring Our Twentyten has plenty of merit. And while Miracle (1) is very smart in his own right, I just think Spidergrace (5) has a little more scope.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)

Blazeaway Macray (Race 7 No.1) $12
This girl has plenty of gate speed and while she has been defeated at her last four starts, there have been a few excuses. Last time she led a crack field of mares and was only beaten 5 metres behind Baby Bling so while she does return to the middle distance here, she is likely to end up with a good run throughout and can sprint hard at the end.

The Money Races

Race 1 ($36 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

Barriettas Bliss (4) may have been beaten at her last two but she had to do some work last time and this is a much easier affair while Joelles Dream (6) did have the right run but was terrific behind Pressplay who would start close to $1.04 in this. They look the two clear chances but don’t discount Nobetterthanthis (3) and What A Sheila (1) when it comes to the place money.

4,6/4,6/1,3. $24 gets 600%

4,6/1,3/4,6. $12 gets 300%

Race 7 ($44 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s)

This may be a pretty tricky race however I’m pretty confident that Metro Mike (5) is ready to return to the winners stall after three runs in and Villagem (7) deserves another chance. Outside of those two however Blazeaway Macray (1) has a terrific winning chance at odds, as does Machin Out (3) so we will play the below trifectas.

5,7/1,3,5,7/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,11. $36 gets 100%

1,3/1,3,5,7/1,3,4,5,6,7,8,11. $18 gets 50%

Quaddies (x3 worth $100)

1/9,10/5,7/4,7,9,11. $40 gets 250%

1/9,10/1,3,6,8,11/4,7,9,11. $ 30 gets 75%

2,5,6,7/9,10/5,7/4,7,9,11. $30 gets 46.85%

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