Friday, June 27, 2014

Good Form Preview - Vicbred Semi-Final Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bets ($30 win)

Feeling Arty (Race 3 No.1) $3.20 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

We are really banking on this guy reproducing his last run but if he can then he is quite clearly the horse to beat. He took on Group 1 winner Waves Of Fire and absolutely smashed a handy field. The two downsides are that he didn’t break any records (however he did come home in 57.4secs) and his form prior was solid but not up to the level he produced in his heat. All that being said, he may just have gone to a new level and while Iceobar (7) remains a serious threat, the barrier advantage is another point in the favour of Feeling Arty (1).

Messini (Race 7 No.9) $2.10 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

This guy was a top little two-year-old for Mark Purdon and it’s fair to say he has come on at three. His last Kiwi run before crossing the ditch was an unlucky fourth in the Harness Jewels and his Aussie debut this preparation for Brent Lilley was simply breathtaking. He led there and crushed his rivals from the top under little asking from Chris Alford in a 27.7sec last half at Geelong which is low-flying. Even from the second row expect him to be too classy for his rivals this week and hard to beat in the final.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Ricimer (Race 4 No.10) $4.40 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

There has always been a decent boom on this guy and his first three wins were all fantastic but his third in the Home Grown Classic final when checked late was almost as good. Admittedly he was a little down in his latest run when fourth but make no mistake he showed some heart to kick on and be beaten only narrowly behind Sketchman and Co. there.  He is first-up for Geoff Webster but on the score of class alone he looks like one of two serious winning hopes.

Mcrita (Race 6 No.8) $5.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

This may be a little outside the box but I’ve been thoroughly impressed with this girl’s entire preparation. She is a horse who continues to step up to what’s put in front of her and a closing second at big odds in good time in her heat has me convinced she is a winning chance tonight. The key may well be Courageousnquick (1) who probably has the speed to hold Getya Wings Out (4) early and if that’s the case she may even try for an all-the-way –win, leaving Mcrita (8) with the gun run and last shot at her. At worst she is likely to end up three back and would still be a huge place chance from there.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)

Our Star Dust (Race 2 No.2) $17 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

This little filly went around at massive odds in her first two starts but there was merit in both runs. That form saw her run a $7 chance in her final lead up to this and she produced a great sprint to take out that race. While on paper that may look like one of the easier heats, I just like the way she is shaping as a horse and if she can get to the pegs first she will be a knockout hope but even if she doesn’t she can run a place for sure.

The Money Races

Race 8 ($45 worth of Flexi Trifecta’s) - Click Here to bet on this race now.

Mindarie Priddy (7) has quite clearly been one of the best fillies of her generation and her run to finish second in the Vic Oaks followed by a slashing win first-up in blistering time means that the wide alley shouldn’t be too much of a disadvantage. In saying that, Bettor Downunder (3) put together two outstanding wins before galloping last time and has to be some rough hope of overthrowing the favourite. Outside of those I think only the ever-improving Berisari (2); last year’s Vicbred winner Distant Memory (6) and the talented My Bella Star (11) can run a place so we will play the following three combinations.

7/3/2,6,11. $24 gets 800%

3/7/2,6,11. $12 gets 400%

7/2,6,11/3. $9 gets 250%

Race 9 ($55 worth of Flexi First Four’s) - Click Here to bet on this race now.

Guaranteed (1) was good enough first-up to suggest he will have come on and he does have the score on the board defeating Ginger Bliss (5) in the Chariots Of Fire earlier this season. In saying that, he only won narrowly that day and Ginger Bliss (5) was super first up so while there isn’t a lot between them, they should run the exacta which gives us the chance to player a little wider in two first four’s as outlined below.

1/5/6,7,10,11,13/6,7,10,11,13. $40 gets 200%

5/1/6,7,10,11,13/6,7,10,11,13. $15 gets 75%

The EARLY Quaddies (x1 worth $80) - Click Here to bet on the Early Quaddie now.

1,6,7,12/2,3,6,7/1,7,8/4,5,10,13. $80 gets 41.66%

Quaddies (x5 worth $120)  - Click Here to bet on the Quaddie now.

8/6,8,10,12/9/3,7. $32 gets 400%

8/6,8,10,12/2,6,8,10,12/3,7. $24 gets 60%

3,4/6,8,10,12/9/3,7. $24 gets 150%

3,4/6,8,10,12/2,6,8,10,12/3,7. $32 gets 40%

8/6,8,10,12/9/2,11. $8 gets 100%


To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Bitobliss: 26.52secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Bitobliss: 54.42secs
Fastest Last Mile – Classy Western: 1:56.05

Sectional Superstar

Tandias Bromac (Race 6  no.12) $3.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now

This mare ripped home in 55.42sec at Melton two weeks ago and while she enjoyed the perfect run behind the leader, it was a terrific effort to produce such quick sectionals to finish of the race. She will need to show her best again but don’t discount her due to the barrier.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Emma Stewart

Best Chance

Lovelist (Race 10 No.4) $1.60 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“She’s our best two-year-old filly.

“She’s done everything right. I’d expect her to get through on Friday night and then we hope she goes on to win the final.

“While we don’t know exactly how good she is yet, she’d have to be right up there with the best two-year-olds we’ve trained.”


Goodtime Marjie (Race 1 No.6) $3 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“She’s a really top-class mare but she can do a few things wrong.

“It depends which Goodtime Marjie turns up.”

Licinia (Race 2 No.3) $3.80 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“I like her. We’ve only had her for three starts for us and she’s won two of them. She can go forward and do some work so the gate looks ideal.”

Our Femme Fatale (Race 6 No.6) $3.80 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“She’s the most underrated horse we’ve got, I think.

“You always know what you’re going to get from her; she always tries her hardest. She’s a great mare.”

Presidentialsecret (Race 7 No.6) $6.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“He does need a bit of luck because he’s not the strongest horse going around but I really like the way he’s working at home and if we can get into the final and then draw a nice gate, he’d be a good chance.”

Berisari (Race 8 No.2) $7 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“If you’d said to me at the start of the year that she’d be one of our best fillies I’d have laughed.

“But she’s going really, really well, and she’s a really good show on Friday night.

“Nathan drives her very well. She can go forward and do some work but she also has a sharp sprint on her, so I’m not fussed about tactics. I’ll leave it up to Nathan.”

Guaranteed (Race 9 No.1) $1.60 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“I can see us being buried away back on the pegs again.

“But as long as we get through to the final, that’s the main thing.”

Hes Kinky (Race 11 No.12) $9.50 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“He’s a good sit-and-sprint horse who is up in class. He’s a chance.”

Tuscan Breeze (Race 12 No.2) $14 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“We were happy with (her) first start with us. She’ll keep improving.”

Bettors Package (Race 12 No.10) $3.60 - Click Here to bet on this horse now.

“(She) is a lovely filly. She’s only tiny but she tries her hardest and with a little bit of luck she can hopefully go very close.”

Speed Maps

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