Monday, June 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Warragul

The Game Plan for Warragul – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)

Best Bet ($50 win)

Jetshawjoe (Race 1 No.2) $2.80

There are plenty of advantages for this guy today and while I can’t see him starting the $2.80 marked in today’s paper, I can see him winning. He has good early speed and should be able to find and hold the top which is pretty important around the tight Warragul track. Add to that two very good runs since joining the Lisa Miles camp and it’s a solid winning formula.

Next Best Bet ($30 win)

Live In Doubt (Race 6 No.5) $2.90

This fella was unlucky last time at big odds and he did win well at Geelong previously. His main danger Liculia (3) can be a little hit and miss and given this guy is now fourth up, he should be ready to fire given he has already won six from 16.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)

Whisper Away (Race 4 No.4) $6.50

There was some money for this horse on debut and he ran a creditable second before finishing off okay in a stronger race last time out. This is a good drop in class so on the score of natural improvement he should be hard to beat.

The Money Races

Race 3 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas)

I love punting in juvenile races and this is one where I think the top three horses likely have some class edge on their rivals however I’m not convinced of which order they will finish so I’m playing the following trifectas.

Box 1,7,8. $24 gets 400%

1,7,8/1,7,8/2,3,5. $18 gets 100%

1,7,8/2,3,5/1,7,8. $8 gets 44.44%

Race 9 ($30 worth of Flexi First Four’s)

Bettor Rock On (5) was thoroughly impressive at his first Aussie start last time and is quite clearly the horse to beat but don’t be surprised to see Baccarat (1) run a massive race so for that reason we will play a main first four with the exacta in the most likely order but also save with the polemarker to knock off the favourite.

5/1/3,4/2,3,4,7. $18 gets 300%

1/5/3,4/2,3,4,7. $12 gets 200%

Quaddies (x2 worth $100)

5/3,5/1,2,5,7/1,2,4,8,10. $68 gets 170%

1/3,5/1,2,5,7/1,2,4,8,10. $32 gets 80%

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