Monday, June 2, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Charlton

The Game Plan for Charlton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets / All Up Formula 3 ($60)
Tezz Khora (Race 1 No.1) $1.10
Quite simply, this guy is a class above his rivals today. While he has to take on one or two handy horses including Virginia Lightning (3) and Attack On Command (7), he clung on to win at Tabcorp Park Melton last time in a speedy mile rate of 1:56.0 for the C1 horses. He has good early speed and did win by panels at this track two starts back so provided he hasn’t taken too much harm from the win last time; he is all but over the line.

Bungalally Boy (Race 2 No.1) $1.70
The scratching of Master Grinner  (2) has changed the complexion of this race and given Bungalally Boy (1) should have the speed to hold the lead, he must rate the horse to beat. He won last start at Ballarat when an outsider but that was no fluke, his form previous had been good and 3YO’s have a terrific record taking on the older C0 horses so he is a must include for our three-legged all up.

Highview Connall (Race 7 No.4) $4.50
This isn’t the easiest race and you don’t generally want a horse coming from off the speed at Charlton but this guy’s form is too good to ignore. If he does have to go back at the start we will be banking on his blistering late speed to get him over the line. He was terrific without a lot of luck last time in an M0 race at Melton and only went down by a head in a similar race previously so with a decent drop in class, he can roll his rivals today.

Best Value ($15 win x $25 place)
Goodtime Rusty (Race 4 No.1) $12
I’m convinced this guy is a little underrated and from today’s draw he should have every chance to, at the very least, run a place. Last time he was beaten just 11 metres behind the promising Raylan Gibbins (6) when things didn’t really pan out in a stop-start race but today’s advantage is that he should be in the first couple in running and Charlton is far more conducive to on-speed horses that Geelong . Even in his previous two runs prior he has run some handy fourth’s so he is certainly building towards a win.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Hozatforasundon (Race 8 No.13) $21
This girl is again off the 30-metre back mark and while his last start tenth doesn’t necessarily enthuse, she is a talented little customer and she did loom up to run into that race before failing to come into it late. The one advantage that she has here is the 2570-metre journey which is an extra 300 metres on last time giving her the chance to catch them up a bit easier. All things being equal I think she can run a place at good odds.

The Money Race
Race 7 ($48 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
I love the look of this race in terms of making some money through the trifectas. I’m pretty keen on there being three key hopes Beachstar (1), Our Femme Fatale (2) and Highview Connall (4) , all drawn off the front, with only a few other dangers to run a place so we are going to play the following combinations.

1,2,4 $18 gets 200%
1,2,4/1,2,4/3,6,9,11. $18 gets 75%
1,2,4/3,6,9,11/1,2,4. $12 gets 50%

Quaddie (x4 worth $102)
6,8/2,7,8/1,2,4/1,7,9,10,11,13. $54 gets 50%
2,3,4,7/2,7,8/1,2,4/1,7,9,10,11,13. $48 gets 22.22%

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