Good Form Preview - Tuesday night @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

There are three Vicbred Super Series heats tonight but it is still a very tricky card for punting. The first of those VSS heats, for the four-year-old trotting mares looks by far the best betting race of the day ahead of the night's final event so we will focus on those couple of Money Races along w/ one Best Value, one Best Roughies and some Quaddies as per usual.

The Money Races

Race 4
I don’t think there’s much between Waikare Patricia (2), Gatesys Girl (3) & Sundons Promise (7) in terms of talent and all are outstanding mares in their own right but Waikare Patricia (2) is probably the best of them & tonight she gets the best draw as well, so expect her to win or come second at very worst. If all horse stay in gait the three big guns will comprise the Trifecta but it’s worth remembering that these are trotters and given Gatesys Girl (3) & Sundons Promise (7) can both make mistakes I’ll be taking a couple of savers with plenty to finish third if things don’t go to plan.

2/ 3,7/ 3,7. $50 gets 2500%

3,7/ 2/ 3,7. $20 gets 1000%
2/ 3,7/ 5,6,8,9,10. $20 gets 200%
3,7/ 2/ 5,6,8,9,10. $10 gets 100%

Race 8

This field has been decimated by scratchings but they should only serve to ensure that Dusty Smiles (2) & Statelyness (1) run one-two here  w/ the former horse likely to jag the prize. It is more than likely that Dance With Mia (4) will lob three back the poles and run third, or fourth at very worst, so play your First 4’s accordingly.

2/ 1/ 4/ 5,7. $25 gets 1250%

2/ 1/ 5,7/ 4. $10 gets 500%
1/ 2/ 4/ 5,7. $10 gets 500%
1/ 2/ 5,7/ 4. $5 gets 250%

Best Value

Thinking Of You (Race 5 no. 2) $4 ($30 Win)
This is an unusual race but one thing we can almost be assure of is that the above filly will roll to the front and make it a genuine staying test from there on in. She simply pulled way too hard in the breeze outside Im Smouldering last time and with the lack of class and depth in this race she should get most of these off the bit and chasing a fair way out from home so I give her a great chance of leading all the way at pretty handy odds.

Best Roughie

Discrimination (Race 7 no. 5) $31 ($10 Each Way)
This bloke has stacks of ability and was incredibly stiff not to win last start when working overtime in the run and only going under late to subsequent Vicbred Super Series heat winner Classic Bliss at Yarra Valley. He won’t find the lead first here but it would not shock me to see Blazeaway Macray (3) hand up to him if Lance Justice puts the foot down early so at the $31 quote he looks a super Each Way play.

Quaddies

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3,5,8,9,10,11,12. $58 gets 276.19%
3,7/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3,5,8,9,10,11,12. $42 gets 100%

THE GAME PLAN for Kilmore – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

There are a stack of short-priced favourites on tonight’s program and most, if not all of them should salute the judge so value will be hard to come by, but I’ve come up with a couple of Money Races and a four-pronged attack on the Quaddie as the best way to get an earn out of the meeting.

THE MONEY RACES

Race 5

Gypsy Babe was most unlucky last start in a heat of the Vicbred at Shepparton first up from a spell and I think she will make amends tonight, but I do concede chances to Thinking Of You and Earth Angel so I’m going to base a couple of Trifectas around that trio, hopefully covering all bases.   Below is how I’m spending $50.

5/ 2,9/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,12.  $30 gets you 250%

2,9/ 5/ 1,2,4,6,8,9,12.  $20 gets you 166.66%

Race 6

Getya Wings Out is a top class filly who comes off the Southern Cross series in South Australia where she took out both heat and final at Globe Derby in fine style and I think she will be too good for this lot with Lierre Noir a clear second pick so I’m going to base some Trifectas around that pair.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

9/ 10/ 2,5,6,8,12.  $25 gets you 500%

9/ 2,5,6,8,12/ 10.  $25 gets you 500%

QUADDIES x 2 $100 total outlay

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 3.  $40 gets you 1333.33%

2/ 2,5,9/ 9/ 8,9,10,11,12.  $60 gets you 400%