Good Form Preview - Friday Night at Melton

Adam Hamilton's Video Preview

The Game Plans For Melton

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

The exotics look a little difficult tonight so I’m just going to stick with my Best First Fours as outlined below and then keep it really simple with three Best Bets, two Value Bets, a Big6 and a Quaddie.  Good luck and happy punting!

Best First Fours

Race 1

Youranut looks one of the best bets on the program and he should lead all-the-way with Tara Toplady the one glued to his back so I’m playing the below bets.

1/ 8/ 2,5,9/ 2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11 $25 gets you 119.04%

1/ 2,5,9/ 8/ 2,3,4,5,6,9,10,11 $25 gets you 119.04%

Race 5

Classy mares Beauty Secret and Maastricht should dominate this race and they look a great base for your first fours so play the below tricks.

3,7/ 3,7/ 1,4,5,9,12/ 1,4,5,8,9,12 $25 gets you 50%

3,7/ 1,4,5,9,12/ 3,7/ 1,4,5,8,9,12 $25 gets you 50%

Race 8

Majorlook with be the shortest priced favourite of the night and he should justify the quote with Our Missionary Man and Mister Livan the key ones to anchor your first fours around.

4/ 5,6/ 3,5,6,7/ 3,5,6,7.  $50 gets you 416.66%

Best Bets

Youranut (Race 1 no. 1) $1.60                          $50 win

Unbeaten in seven runs for Ross Sugars since coming from NSW and he looks a horse with a very bright future at metropolitan level.  He has a couple of fast beginners to his outside but he should muster the speed to keep the front and the way he is going at present they won’t be able to run past him.

Cold Sister (Race 2 no. 7) $2                             $50 win

Clearly the class runner here and is sure to take beating despite the car park draw.  She comes off consecutive second placings on this circuit behind quality types My High Expectations and Waikare Patricia (winner again since) in much stronger races whether she gets the lead or sits parked I think she will be too good.

Beauty Secret (Race 5 no. 7) $3 TAB Fixed Odds   $50 win – Click here to back this horse now

HHHas won 3 of her 6 outings this time in, the latest of those an easy Vicbred Super Series heat victory at Ballarat just over two weeks ago, and although she will find this challenging from the car park draw she has a touch of class about her and I think she will prove too strong.

Best Value Bets

Have A Bender (Race 7 no. 3) $3.80 TAB Fixed Odds  $15 win x $35 place – Click here to back this horse now

Was dead game here last week in the Enduro when fifth to Pacific Soul where he did a stack of work in the run after missing away but he can put all of that behind him tonight as this looks right up his alley.  He has a liking for the short course racing, will be parked outside of On The Razzle and will be extremely hard to keep out the way he is going at present.

Smudge Bromac (Race 7 no. 8) $4.60 TAB Fixed Odds  $15 win x $35 place – Click here to back this horse now

This guy wasn’t disgraced behind Decorated Jasper last week after doing the work in the run over the concluding stages and tonight he draws to get a beaut trip behind likely leader On The Razzle and if that fellow gets him to the passing lane in time watch for him to be charging at them late.

Quaddie

1,6,8,9,10/ 3,7/ 1,5/ 3,8,10,11,12.  $100 gets you 100%

BIG6

1,4,5,8,9,11/ 1,6,8,9,10/ 3,7/ 1,5/ 3,8,10,11,12/ 4.  $100 gets you 16.66%


The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

It’s a tricky programme at HQ tonight and I’m half-expecting that the upset results we saw a couple of weeks back might be the order of the night once more. Having said that, I’ve found two races I reckon we can target to try & exploit TAB’s ‘Fourtune’ promotion plus plenty of Value/Roughie options which should keep us occupied throughout the 10 race card. As always I’ll also be having a good crack at the Quad as well so let’s dive in and see which ways to play!

Best Bets/All-Up ($50)

Youranut (Race 1 no. 1) $1.60
Put simply, this bloke is a star on the rise that would be almost unbeatable from any other draw. As it is he looks a better than even money chance of holding the top given he punched through to hold brilliant beginner On The Razzle wide three starts back at Ballarat and the main danger of crossing him, Astronaut (2), draws next door which will make it tough to cross. If he does lead, they won’t beat him and even if he doesn’t he’ll only need a healthy slice of luck to get the prize regardless.

Beauty Secret (Race 5 no. 7) $3 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
There are a number of reasons why I think this mare won’t get rolled tonight but the first of them, that she’s simply the best horse engaged, is easily the most important. Add to that the fact she’s drawn to roll forward and occupy a forward spot while her major danger (in my opinion) La Machane is likely to be driven well back and that if Maastricht (3) doesn’t cross Born Again Sassy (1) at the start, Glenn Douglas is unlikely to let that horse across in transit & she looks very well placed indeed.

Best Value

Kotare Roland (Race 4 no. 12) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now ($25 Each Way)
I was gobsmacked to see this bloke open at double figures after his stunning return to top form at Melton last week where he dominated a much easier field than he meets tonight, posting a 1:54.8 mile after working his way to the front. He gets the horror draw here and does step up sharply in class but he’s still my top tip and well worth backing Each way at his current quote.

Smudge Bromac (Race 7 no. 8) $4.60 ($25 Each Way)
There seems to have been an almost incomprehensible push for Have A Bender (3) in this race but the way I see things panning out, On The Razzle (1) will comfortably hold the lead from his polemarking draw and with little obvious pressure through the middle stages he should give the horse above every chance to get out & blouse his rivals at what looks to be handsome odds.

Best Roughies

Born Again Sassy (Race 5 no. 1) $15 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now ($5 x $20)
I don’t give this mare a big winning chance but she has been a huge improver of late and given the fact I think she can hold the top for as long as Glenn Douglas desires I think she’s well worth a 1x4 investment at the double figure odds.
Viewpoint (Race 10 no. 6) $21 ($5 by $20)
He is another one I wouldn’t think has a huge winning hope but the 25m separating he and Major Secret (8) isn’t as bad as it looks because there would have been at least that much between them w/ 800m to run and he wasn’t tested late. The hope here is that there will be a very genuine speed because if there is he has a little hope of winning and a big hope of finishing on the podium @ odds.

The Money Races

Race 1
As mentioned earlier, Youranut (1) should lead and win here and if he does hold the top Tara Toplady (8) should either finish second or third. I’m going to play very conservatively to maximise our dividend, so there is risk involved, but there may also be a pretty tidy reward.
1/ 8/ 2,5,9/ 2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12. $21 gets 100%
1/ 8/ 3,6,10,11,12/ 2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12. $17.50 gets 50%
1/ 2,5,9/ 8/ 2,3,5,6,9,10,11,12. $11.50 gets 54.76%

Race 7
Despite the mammoth support for Have A Bender (3) I’m sticking fat that On The Razzle (1) will lead, Smudge Bromac (8) will trail him and they will both finish in the top 3. With that in mind, here are a trio of First 4’s that should also pay very well should they come off.
1,8/ 1,8/ 2,3,9,10,11,12/ 2,3,9,10,11,12. $20 gets 33.33%
1,8/ 2,3,9,10,11,12/ 1,8/ 2,3,9,10,11,12. $20 gets 33.33%
3,10,11,12/ 1,8/ 1,8/ 2,3,9,10,11,12. $10 gets 25%

Quaddies

1,6,8,9,10,12/ 7/ 1,5,15/ 1,8. $36 gets 100%
1,6,8,9,10,12/ 1,3,5,12/ 1,5,15/ 1,8. $36 gets 25%
1,6,8,9,10,12/ 7/ 1,5,15/ 3,10,11,12. $18 gets 25%
1,6,8,9,10,12/ 1,3,5,12/ 1,5,15/ 3,10,11,12. $10 gets 3.47%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Ross Sugars

Best Chance
Youranut (Race 1 no.1) $1.60 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He has been a real revelation for the stable since coming down from New South Wales.

“He’s qualified for the Sires (Vicbred Super Series) next Friday night so I’ve decided to give him a run between the heat and the semi to keep him in tow.

“The first fortnight he was down we didn’t do a lot with him but the first time we fast worked him Greg and I knew we had a horse that might have a future. He has just thrived at our facilities.”

Others
La Machane (Race 5 no.12) $6.5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She was a brilliant two-year-old who didn’t improve as much as a three-year-old but as a four-year-old she has come back a mature mare and is probably racing as best as she’s ever gone.

“Her last start fifth at Cranbourne in a heat of the Vicbred was probably better than it looks; she was last in a slow run race and she had to make an early run.”

“If she can get a cart into the race she’ll be hard to beat I think.”

Veranjee (Race 7 no.9) $6 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I’ve got no doubt On The Razzle leads and with Smudge Bromac on his back I’d expect we would drop to the pegs.

“Providing they run it solidly, which I think they will, if he is three-back the pegs he should run into it at the end.”

To hear the full interview on RSN Winners with Nadia Horne simply click here.

Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Mary Mon: 27.40secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Mary Mon: 55.60secs
Fastest Last Mile – Repelem: 1:54.65

Sectional Superstar

Backas Cobber (Race 6 no. 15) – $16 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy won’t have any favours in the run, having drawn the outside of the second row for horses with a 10-metre handicap, however his sectionals last time out were very impressive.

He ran close to the quickest last mile of either heat, slicing home in 2:00.25 and was clearly the strongest in the last half, being the only horse to break 58 coming home (57.65) as he also recorded the quickest last fraction in 28.56.

Given Chris Lang has had a frustrating time with the gelding who he believes has talent, his return to form suggests he will be hard to beat in any race he contests this preparation.

Speed Maps

Race 1

YOURANUT (1) did enough at the start to push through and find the top in his only start from the front line on Victorian soil three starts back and will be doing everything he can to retain the lead from fellow fast starter ASTRONAUT (2) and go-forward horses like DISCRIMINATION (3) & OHOKA MACH (6). If ASTRONAUT (1) does keep the lead then TARA TOPLADY (8) should receive an outstanding trip in behind him with BETTOR GIVE IT (9) a great chance to lob three pegs and the rest needing luck to get into the race.

Race 2

EL PACO (1) is a quick beginner from the mobile start who should hold his rivals wide early on before attempting an all the way win, or more likely handing up to class runner COLD SISTER (7) when she works up to his wheel. Geoff Webster will have the choice of following EL PACO (1) through early with TENDAHO (8) or coming off the pegs for clear running while ZEDALITE (9) is likely to make a mid-race move from the second line draw. OUR DOLLY WOULD (3) and JINGLING SILVER (4) may both have a look for the early lead and if they don’t get it should each receive comfortable running-line trips.

Race 3

MONICA MY DEAR (1) & PACKED UP EARLY (2) are the quickest beginners off the front line and should dispute the early lead. Whoever wins that battle is likely to shoot for an all-the-way win over the short trip with SONOFPACO (9) favoured to occupy the breeze and ALDEBARAN SUNSTAR (11) needing to make his own luck for success. MALLEE TRAPPER (8) should receive a cosy trip either behind the leader or three pegs at worst while SUNSET TOUR (5) and WAIKARE SUN (3) should land handy front-half positions in transit.

Race 4

This is a tricky race to read because ATLAS ALLIANCE (1), ONEDIN HUSTLER (2) and TOULOUSE LAUTREC (4) all have early speed but it’s hard to know where any of those horses are in their current form. ATLAS ALLIANCE (1) is only second-up form a break but expect him to hold his rivals wide which should translate into a nice, soft peg-line trip for sit-sprint specialist JUKEBOX MUSIC (8). COMPOSED (9), TEO ENTEO (10) and KOTARE ROLAND (12) can all either sit quietly and come with one run or make a mid-race move while LOVABLE LARRIKIN (6) is most likely to be held up for one dash at his rivals in the lane.

Race 5

There is heaps of early speed off the front line here with BORN AGAIN SASSY (1), MAASTRICHT (3), CLASSIC BLISS (5), PEACES OF YOU (6) & BEAUTY SECRET (7) all excellent beginners on their day. Expect BORN AGAIN SASSY (1) to hold her rivals wide for as long as she likes before probably handing up to an appropriate rival while the out-of-form SHAKE IT MAMA (8) should get a soft peg-line trip. Of the sit-sprint brigade LA MACHANE (12) is certainly the most dangerous closer and will also be very well suited by a hectic expected early tempo.

Race 6

This is another tricky race to read. ALDEBARAN SHADES (1) did enough to kick through and hold the top from exactly the same draw in his heat of this series last weekend and must be a good chance to do the same again but ORLANDOS DREAM (2) is an even quicker beginner from the strands who may look for the lead and keep it if he gets there. WAIKARE ARISTOCRAT (5) is a go-forward horse who is likely to lob the breeze regardless of what happens early while most of the rest including BACKAS COBBER (15) who rattled home from the rear last week will be relying on a healthy slice of luck to get into the race.

Race 7

ON THE RAZZLE (1) is a brilliant beginner form the mobile start that looks an 80% or better chance of holding the early lead from his polemarking draw. If that scenario plays out then SMUDGE BROMAC (8) will get a beaut trip on the leaders back with VERANJEE (9) just as likely to lob three pegs in transit. Boom horse HAVE A BENDER (3) may need to play enforcer from the breeze tonight while class runners MOTU CRUSADER (10), BROADWAYS BEST (11) & DECORATED JASPER (12) should constitute the three-wide line and look to outsprint their rivals over the last 600m.

Race 8

CLASSY GUY (2), OUR MISSIONARY MAN (5) & OUR FEMME FATALE (7) are all brilliant beginners on their day but in this small field it is tough to know who will put their foot to the floor early in the race. MAJORLOOK (4) also gets out OK but may have to sit parked in transit depending upon who works to the early lead while MISTER LIVAN (6) should settle back and come with one run at them late.

Race 9

The late scratching of Shakatomic should ensure that LOTA VISION (5) and PLEASE DONT TALK (6) fight out the early lead, with the latter likely to work her way to the top. OUR ICARUS (4) should lob a handy spot in transit from its favourable draw while FIERY COUNT (7) and BAD CAT (9) should both play bully from the breeze and three-wide respectively.

Race 10

MARDY BICKEN (3) & PRESIDENTIAL SECRET (5) can both run the gate and should fight out the early lead with THATS RITE (7) likely to put on the power, either from the breeze in transit or three wide late in running. MAJOR SECRET (8) is awkwardly drawn but should get into the race either via his own steam or on a rival’s back while VIEWPOINT (6) should drop out early but can be dangerous in a sit-sprinting role if the pace is on throughout.