Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Melton

THE GAME PLANS for Melton – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting features Jackpot First Fours on all races and I have singled out Races 2,3 and 6 as the best ones to target for those keen to have a crack at them, but if you would like to keep it simple I’ve come up with a Best Bet, Best Place Bet, plus a few different ways to attack the Big6 and Quaddie.  Let the punting begin!

BEST BET

Decorated Jasper (Race 6 no. 3) $2.20          ($100 win)

This guy finally comes up with a decent draw tonight and this looks a great race for him to get back into the winners list as he should pounce on the lead, dictate the terms and with his main rivals drawing poorly plus a lack of any real pressure in the affair I can see him leading them a merry dance.

BEST PLACE BET

Jukebox Music (Race 6 no. 2) $3.50 approx.  ($100 place)

As mentioned above I’m keen on Decorated Jasper to lead all-the-way and that brings this bloke right into calculations from a place point of view as he draws to receive a gun run behind the speed, which is how he likes it and at what should be reasonable odds I think he looks a great bet.

FIRST FOUR FRENZY
Race 2

5/ 3,4/ 3,4/ 1,8,11,12,13.  $20 gets you 200%
5/ 3,4/ 1,8,11,12,13/ 3,4.  $15 gets you 150%
3,4/ 5/ 3,4/ 1,8,11,12,13.  $10 gets you 100%
3,4/ 5/ 1,8,11,12,13/ 3,4.  $5 gets you 50%

Race 3

6/ 1,2,4,9/ 1,2,4,9/ 1,2,4,8,9.  $36 gets you 100%
1,2,4,9/ 6/ 1,2,4,9/ 1,2,4,8,9.  $14 gets you 38.88%

Race 6

3/ 2/ 5,7,8,11,12,13/ Field.  $20 gets you 37.03%
3/ 5,7,8,11,12,13/ 2/ Field.  $20 gets you 37.03%
3/ 5,7,8,11,12,13/ 5,7,8,11,12,13/ 3.  $10 gets you 33.33

BIG 6’S X 4 $100 total spend

6/ 1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 3/ 6/ 4,5,9.  $24 gets you 50%

6/ 1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,7,11,12,13/ 6/ 4,5,9.  $24 gets you 10%

1,2,4,9/ 1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 3/ 6/ 4,5,9.  $20 gets you 10%

1,2,4,9/ 1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,7,11,12,13/ 6/ 4,5,9.  $32 gets you 2.77%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 total spend

1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 3/ 6.  $40 gets you 250%

1,6,12,13/ 3,4,5,7/ 2,7,11,12,13/ 6.  $60 gets you 75%

Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Habibti (Race 7 no. 6) $1.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now ($100 win)
I know we’re not going to retire on the profits from backing this superstar trotting filly one-out but the combination of a straight-out whack, isolating her one-out in our Quads and having her anchor a couple of First 4’s should ensure she is the biggest cash-cow on tonight’s 12-race card. A few pundits seem to think she was disappointing last week. I do not share their view and would be thoroughly shocked to see her go under tonight.

Best Value

Pinevale Willpower (Race 4 no. 6) $7 ($25 each way)
This bloke trialled like the star he’s often promised to be before a handy fifth in his heat of this series last Friday night when he worked hard early and still finished off OK. He has always raced best from the head of affairs and with the likelihood of him working to the front at some stage here I’m more than happy to have something on him at genuine Each Way odds.
Smudge Bromac (Race 6 no. 11) $10 ($25 each way)
David Aiken has an extraordinary knack of unearthing FFA class horses and this bloke may be his next open class star. He remains underrated but it’s been hard to miss him rocketing home in a similar grade to this at his past two starts and after coming from behind Jack In Flight (13) to beat him last start, I think he’s the one to roll at what could well be pretty silly odds.

Best Roughie

Ok To Fly (Race 2 no. 12) $21 ($50 place)

Clearly the value runner on the back of an excellent win at Bendigo and an eye-catching fourth from well back last week in his heat of this event. They’ll need to clap the speed on for him to win from the second line draw but I’m more than happy to back him only for the place if he comes up $4+.

Tara Toplady (Race 9 no. 10) $17 ($25 each way)
It’s true that the 1720m trip at Melton does favour those on the speed and on the pegs but there is any amount of early speed engaged here with Our Mick Ison (1), Narre Boy (3) and Night Affair (7) all very quick from the mobile start and all likely to look for the early lead, so don’t rule out this mare who was excellent last time when parked outside the top-class Keayang Steamer and only going down by a small margin at Ballarat. She was also well backed that night so stable confidence must be high and I really think she can win this w/ some breaks in transit.

First Four Frenzy

In honour of tonight being the launching pad for TAB’s month-long ‘Fourtune’ campaign promising $10,000 pool guarantees in every Friday night race @ Melton I’ve found three races in which to play the monster exotic on tonight’s 12-race card.

Race 2
5/ 3,4,11,12/ 3,4,11,12/ 1,3,4,8,11,12. $80 gets 166.67%
4/ 5/ 3,11,12/ 1,3,8,11,12. $10 gets 66.66%
4/ 3,11,12/ 3,5,11,12/ 1,3,5,8,11,12. $10 gets 27.78%

Race 7

6/ 2/ 4,5,7,8,10,11,12,13/ 4,5,7,8,10,11,12,13. $50 gets 89.29%

Race 12
6/ 5,7/ 2,5,7,8/ 2,3,5,7,8. $50 gets 277.78%

Quaddies

1,6,12,13/ 4,5/ 3,7,11,12,13/ 6. $50 gets 125%
1,6,12,13/ 3,6,9,11,13/ 3,7,11,12,13/ 6. $50 gets 50%

Star Trialler (Racing Tonight)
Brunelleschi (Race 1 no. 5) $2.50
Group 1 Vicbred Super Series winner from last season that resumes tonight on the back of two trial wins against the pacers and would almost certainly too good if anywhere near his best.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – David Aiken

Best Chance
Spidergirl (Race 7 no.2) $3.50 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She (Spidergirl) had a tough run in the Oaks and had a better trip in the Derby. When Habibti got to the front it was all but over but she ran home well.

“I wouldn’t be ruling out Spidergirl – the other filly might be one out of the box but my girl is pretty good too.

“We are really happy with where she is at and she is going really well at the moment it’s just unfortunate that we are probably running into a horse that’s freakish.

“We would hope to hold the top until Habibti gets there. Chris (Alford, driver) just nursed her out in Sydney and she didn’t show a lot of speed but we will probably have to get out a bit quicker this week.

“I know Habibti got beat last week but I don’t think she lost any admirers; the track was bad, they went quick time and she did all the work.”

Others

Composed (Race 6 no.8) $26
"It’s an awkward draw (for Composed) but he is racing really well without much luck.”

Smudge Bromac (Race 6 no.11) $10

Smudge Bromac is just a really good consistent racehorse; he’s working well and he is racing well so the only danger is probably the speed in the race.”

Vics Cheval (Race 7 no.) $51

“They are both nice three-year-old trotting fillies but they are probably the next rung down,” Aiken said.

“I think Vics Cheval will be better next time in being a big, overgrown filly.

Dizzyinterest (Race 7 no.) $35

“Dizzyinterest has a lot to learn but when she sorts herself out she will be okay.

“It’s tough to be competitive with the other fillies when you can do things wrong and they are doing everything right.

“If both of my other two trotted the whole way I would probably lean to Dizzyinterest beating the other one home.”

Cold Sister (Race 8 no. 9) $5 - TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

“She’s been racing well against the free-for-all horses and she’s back to mares company here; when she races the mares she is usually more than competitive,” Aiken said.

“There’s a bit of speed in the race so tactically we will just wait and see. She is capable of making a run around them but in saying that she has a pretty good trailing draw through so she should land in front of a few early.

“It’s a good race, it’s actually a very even race with a very nice field but my girl has the right form lines coming into it; it just looks like a nice race for her.”

Sectionals

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Magical Telf: 27.18secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Magical Telf: 54.79secs
Fastest Last Mile – Magical Telf: 1:55.75

Sectional Superstar

Narra Operative (Race 4 no. 10) $10 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now

Narra Operative is one of two Peter Manning-trained geldings in Race 4 tonight. Not only has he been well backed pre-post ($21 into $10) but he recorded some impressive sectionals last week at HQ.

He was the only horse to go sub 58secs in either heat last week and his last mile of 1:58.59 was clearly the quickest of his division.

From the second-row he will need some luck but with any sort of cart into the race he could be a major threat late.

Speed Maps

RACE 1

MISTER GUNSEN (2) fairly flied the mobile start and should lead these within the first 15m., From there Paul Grech will have the option to hold the top or hand up but over the 1720m trip expect him to go for an all-the way victory with HEZA BOY STAR (1) on his back if he handles his first crack at the mobile start, ZEDALITE (4) & BRUNELLESCHI (5) both doing things tough & the rest needing some fortune in transit if they want to figure in the finish.

RACE 2

AUTHORIZED (5) possesses well above average gate speed and should do enough to cross this field at the start, with LIVE IN REALITY (1), who also punched through nicely at the start, a great chance of holding his back in transit. MAGICAL MOLLY (4) pulled hard in her heat win for this series & should occupy the breeze once more here with IM LIVING THE DREAM (3) handy enough if good enough and both OK TO FLY (12) & NOW AND FOREVER (11) the most dangerous late closers.

RACE 3

There is plenty of speed of the front line here with ELJULIO (2), NARREE BELLE (4) & MAJOR CALIPSO (6) all pretty quick beginners off the mobile arm. If ELJULIO (2) can hold the top early then FUTURE OPERATOR (1) & CONFLICT OF INTEREST (8) will both secure cosy trips, but if MAJOR CALIPSO (6) works his way to the top then the race may be over as a contest. SUPALINER (9) is the other key runner and he should get an economical trip from the handy trailing draw.

RACE 4

ILLAWONG KATH (1) has very good early toe and should be able to kick through for as long as she likes but GIVEUS AGRIN (5) & PINEVALE WILLPOWER (6) should also be hunting for the lead and the latter looks a great chance of getting it if Chris Alford won’t take no for an answer. Either way INDULGENT (9) will get a soft peg-line trip and big guns JOHNNY QUID (12) & KEAYANG RUSTLER (13) will be forced to either make a mid-race move or come with one sustained run in the final lap.

RACE 5

UBRINGTHEDRINKS (3) will almost certainly be the first horse to the pegs here although THIRSTY MACH (6) & AITCH CUE (7) are also quick beginners and may have a crack at the lead themselves. Either way PACIFIC SOUL (1) will get the ice-cold run he enjoys the most while SAVESOMTIMETODREAM (5) & HENRIK ZETTERBERG (4) should be handy enough if good enough over the final 800m and the rest will need luck to play a role at the knock.

RACE 6

There is good speed off the front line here but expect DECORATED JASPER (3) to do whatever is required to resist the early challenges of TOULOUSE LAUTREC (4), ALCHEMY (6) & OUR BLACKBIRD (7) and hold the early lead. Class runners SMUDGE BROMAC (11), MOTU CRUSADER (12) & JACK IN FLIGHT (13) will all be obliged to make a mid-race move or comprise the three-wide line late while the rest will need more than a healthy slice of luck to win.

RACE 7

ROSEMMA (4) & PARIS PEPPERELL (5) are both naturally quick beginners and one of the two should cross SPIDERGIRL (1) early before handing up to HABIBTI (6) through the early/middle stages of the race. If that scenario prevails then SPIDERGIRL (1) will either have to try her luck along the pegs or more likely get off the poles to sit outside HABIBTI (6) while MAORI TIME (8) will also have to decide between a soft trip and velar running from her awkward gate eight draw.

RACE 8

MAIDSTONE MISS (1) & MONICA MY DEAR (2) have early toe but one suspects both would be happy to hand the lead to SHES AN IMAGE (4) in transit. If they do then tat mare can either hold the top herself or hand up once more but expect her to retain the lead with either SUNDONS PROMISE (6) or GATESYS GIRL (7) in the breeze and class mares WAIKARE PATRICIA (5) & COLD SISTER (9) saved for one crack at their rivals in the lane.

RACE 9

OUR MICK ISON (1) & NARRE BOY (3) are very quick beginners in their own right but they may be unable to resist NIGHT AFFAIR’S (7) extraordinary gate speed at the start. Whatever happens early expect KOTARE ROLAND (6) & TARA TOPLADY (10) to work into the fight at their earliest possible convenience an d front –of-the-field specialists SALEM (12) & FIERY ACHIEVER (13) to be tested in the unfamiliar role of chasers tonight.

RACE 10

PETE OF PAN (4) is a blistering beginner that should cross these soon after the start and have options once he does. There is no pressure horse as such but FIRE IT UP (7) can pull in his races and may be sent forward early while GUNS N ROSES (11) is the class factor and he too may be injected into the contest from his horror gate 11 draw. Regardless of what happens early LUV THA ACES LOMBO (2) should secure a handy trip while ROWAN DIRECT (10) could be dangerous w/ a cart into the race late.

RACE 11

AFTERMIDNIGHT SAM (1) has good early toe and should lead for as long as he likes although THE RED OPAL (5) can also begin quickly and class runner ALTA ANTONIO (7) may just bully his way to the top from his wide front line draw. Either way, natural sit-sprinter LOTA VISION (8) will get the soft peg-line run he loves and the rest will need luck to make an impression in the lane.

RACE 12

GOODSIE (5) may well have the speed to find the pegs first in this but expect JILLIBY LING (6) to be rolling forward in search of the top in transit too. OUR HORIZON (7) may also have a dip for the top but he may have to be content with the death seat in transit while the rest will need a crazy mid-race tempo and/or all the breaks in transit here to figure.