It’s Vicbred Super Series semi-final & there’s plenty of class – and obvious winners – on display. Unfortunately, semi-finals where the first half of the field home qualify for the final often translate to predictable races but from a punting perspective we can exploit that predictability to our advantage, which we’ll plan to do in spades with the Game Plan outlined below.
Best Bets/All-Up
The class discrepancies tonight look pretty clear tonight so it’s entirely possible we may tip 8 or 10 winners for the night but there are four I just cannot envisage getting rolled. Throw a $50 note on the below quartet in an all-up and you should get back more than $330!
Lennytheshark (Race 3 no. 2) $1.20
The class runner and almost certain leader he will get some competition from Majorlook (6) but should be a shade too good.
Im Smouldering (Race 6 no. 5) $1.70
One of Australia’s most consistent pacers, she should bully her way to the front and w/ little obvious pressure it should be game over from there.
Border Control (Race 7 no. 3) $1.30
No doubting that this bloke, New Zealand’s fastest ever pacer, is the Best Bet all night given his only minor threat, Guaranteed (8), has drawn a horror gate.
Business In Motion (Race 9 no. 2) $2.50
In terms of value, this bloke looks the best single bet all night. He should bully his way to the front from his favourable draw and if he can steal a quarter they will not run him down.
Best Value
Have $5 x $20 on each of the below and I’m confident you’ll end up well ahead.
Keayang Steamer (Race 4 no. 12) $8
This bloke finished 4th in a vintage Chariots Of Fire then had to be seen to be believed when three wide the trip and still charging home last time out. Youranut (1) will be a tough nut to crack but if this bloke is anything close to $8 then have an Each Way wager on him for sure.
Majorlook (Race 3 no. 6) $10
Lennytheshark (2) has a heap in his favour here and should be winning but if this bloke produces his best form he’s just as likely to finish second. I’m not sure the $10 quote will hold p but if you’re getting flip-of-the-coin about him running a drum then go hog-wild.
It Is Billy (Race 8 no. 1) $12
This guy is jam packed w/ ability & finally seems to be showing that little bit of gate speed which will take him to the next level. His last start win @ Yarra Valley was a career best effort and if he doesn’t get buried from the ace alley the $12 quote looks juicy indeed.
Charlie Machsheen (Race 8 no. 4) $17
This bloke is the other one who’ll likely be ignored in what many people are calling ‘Restrepo’s race’. He actually draws to find the front at some point if he begins like he can, so once again, the massive odds are well worth entertaining.
Best Roughie
There’s only one of these but she is worth a straight place tilt of around $25.
Paintball (Race 2 no. 13) $34
I’ve been a fan of this mare for a very long time and even though Real Bonus (2) is the one to beat, if she can get a trail up on stablemate Ourbellabro (11) here I think she can fill a hole at very big odds.
The Money Races – Best First 4’s
Tonight marks the final time punters can cash in on TAB’s ‘Fourtune’ promotion so I have picked out the three best races on which to exploit the inflated pools and jackpots below.
Race 3
2/ 1,6/ 1,6,9,13/ 1,6,9,13. $24 gets 200%
2/ 1,6/ 1,6,9,13/ 5,8,11,12. $18 gets 75%
6/ 2/ 1,9,13/ 1,5,8,9,11,12,13. $8 gets 44.44%
Race 6
5/ 2,10,13/ 2,8,10,13/ 2,8,10,13. $27 gets 150%
5/ 2,10,13/ 2,8,10,13/ 3,4,6,7. $23 gets 63.89%
Race 9
2/ 1,8/ 1,8,12,13/ 1,5,8,9,12,13. $34 gets 141.67%
2/ 12,13/ 1,8,12,13/ 1,5,8,9,12,13. $8 gets 33.33%
1,8/ 2/ 1,8,12,13/ 1,5,8,9,12,13. $8 gets 33.33%
Quaddies (x4)
1/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 5/ 3. $50 gets 1000%
1/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,10,13/ 3. $15 gets 100%
7,8,12,13/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 5/ 3. $20 gets 100%
7,8,12,13/ 1,2,5,6,9/ 2,10,13/ 3. $15 gets 25%
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – John Justice
Best Chance
Lennytheshark (Race 3 no.2) $1.20 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“When you look at it, you see a horse as good as him have such an easy run, even after doing some work early, he looked like he should have ran away from them.
“The time
was pretty good; the sectionals were good, but he carried a flat tyre for a lap
and a half and the tube wrapped around the wheel. It just has a breaking effect
and it took its toll on him.
“When those
sorts of things happen it can ruin horses and I could feel him tiring a bit
late. Under the circumstances I thought it was a good run.
“I guess
when you win the New South Wales Derby then get beaten a couple of times people
start to think there is something wrong but everything is good with the horse
and we’ve just basically been ticking him along and waiting for the Vicbred.
“When you get to this level there is always
pressure to win but having a well-bred colt doesn’t add to it. And I don’t
think he feels it either, he certainly doesn’t read the papers.”
Big Bang Leonard (Race 9 no.10) $67– Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a funny little horse, his work has actually been fantastic at home but I was probably just a bit disappointed in his last run. I’d put it down to the fact he had to travel three and a half hours and that’s almost as long as he’s ever been in a float.
“He’s an improving type and even though he is drawn awkward it wouldn’t surprise me if he was to make it into the final the following week.
“He is a genuine sit/sprint horse, in the final if he drew where he could be near the pace and get up the sprint lane he would be a genuine chance on his work.”
Punchinello (Race 10 no.5) $21– Click here to bet on this horse now
"I really like this horse, he just keeps getting better. He is a sneaky chance with being up there with the very good ones. He does have a little bit of gate speed but it’s really just one of those things where you have to wait and see."
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half – Shakatomic: 27.09secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Itcan Happen: 55.23secs
Fastest Last Mile – Teo Enteo: 1:54.54
Sectional Superstar
Majorlook (Race 3 no. 6) – $10 – Click
here to bet on this horse nowIan Montgomery has a high opinion of this guy and even in defeat he ran a slashing race last time out.
He rushed home in 55.63 and was only bloused on the line by an outsider who had the soft sit behind him.
It won’t get any easier this week lining up against Lennytheshark but if he can find the death and there is little pressure midrace he could well be a blowout hope.
Speed Maps
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