Good Form Preview - Thursday at Yarra Valley

THE GAME PLAN for Yarra Valley – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Today’s meeting looks a ripper from a punting point of view and I’ve come up with an All Up that will hopefully reap us a 3/1 return on our investment, two horses to back straight out at black figures that I think have terrific chances, an almost certain Exacta in Race 4 and a lash at the Quaddie.  Here we go! 

ALL UP          

Shes A Runa (Race 1 no. 2)                      Win

Keeper Of The Fire (Race 2 no. 6)         Place

Kazaree (Race 4 no. 9)                              Place

Intergalactic (Race 6 no. 5)                     Place

I’m throwing $100 at the above bet and if all goes to plan I think we should get a return of around $400.

BEST AT BLACK FIGURES

Keeper Of The Fire (Race 2 no. 6) $2.70       $100 win

Betting in Claimers can be a bit treacherous on occasions but I really like this bloke today and here is why.  1.  His main rivals Dartmoor, Talk To The Hand and Sarum Knight either draw outside him or the back row and he will be in front of them in the run.  2.  There is a lack of any real depth off the front row and I think he is a great chance of rolling on to the lead, which would see him almost impossible to get past. 

Intergalactic (Race 6 no. 5) $2.80                   $100 win

This guy hasn’t been seen since finishing a solid third to Nogueira at Melton a month back but he has had a trial hit out at Melton recently to blow the cobwebs out and I’m keen on him to bust his maiden today for these reasons.  1.  His main rival today is Franco Seelster, who is handy without being a star, and the pair met in a race here back in April with our tip beating home Franco Seelster fair and square.  2.  He may have to sit outside Franco Seelster but he has shown toughness in the past and I can’t see any pace in the race at all so up on the speed will be the place to be.

BEST EXACTA

Race 4 no. 2 Baccarat/ no. 9 Kazaree x $100

Baccarat is a classy type who should be much too good for these from the perfect draw at a short quote and I was really impressed with the way Kazaree hit the line at Geelong last start behind the smart Doomed so I can see Baccarat clearing out in the straight with Kazaree charging home and I think they will run 1,2.

QUADDIE

2/ 1,8,10/ 3,4,5,8/ 1,5,8,9.  $100 gets you 208.33%

The Game Plan for Yarra Valley – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bet

Shes A Runa (Race 1 no. 2) $1.50
This filly has been a stalwart of this season’s biggest juvenile races so far and while she hasn’t broken through for feature race success, she hasn’t been far away and given the likelihood that she’ll get a soft lead here and dictate the race, it’s tough to see any of her rivals, even the smart Fon Design (5), running her down at the knock.

Best Roughie/Place Bet

Tennessee Rebel (Race 4 no. 3) $26
I must stress that this bloke is almost no chance of winning but I’d say he’s a 90% chance of finding the pegs first and a better than even money hope of handing up to Baccarat (2) in transit which would give him a massive hope of finishing on the podium over the short course today. To be fair, you’d be wanting $4 the place, but if you get it have a little crack.

The Money Races

Race 1
As previously mentioned, Shes A Runa (2) should be winning this and Fon Design (5) should finish second, or third at very worst, so base a couple of little First 4’s around this race to kick off the meeting in style.

2/ 5/ 1,3,4/ 1,3,4. $42 gets 700%
2/ 1/ 5/ 3,4. $8 gets 400%

Race 2

This is a Claiming affair where most of the runners are a fair way off their best form but a few keep rolling along at a pretty high level and should be dominating the race. They are Keeper Of The Fire (6), Dartmoor (7) and Sarum Knight (8) and with the promise that they’ll fill three of the top four placings we can play pretty wide with regard to who’ll fill the other First 4 spot.

6,7,8/ 6,7,8/ 6,7,8/ 1,2,3,9,10. $30 gets 50%

6,7,8/ 6,7,8/ 1,2,3,9,10/ 6,7,8. $20 gets 33.33%

Race 6

Intergalactic (5) never gets any luck in his races but I’m confident he’s the best horse engaged here, so in a race pretty skinny on winning hopes I’m going to rove around that bloke and hope he gets the prize.

5/ 3,4,8/ 3,4,8. $30 gets 500%

5/ 3,4,8/ 9,11. $6 gets 100%
3,4,8/ 5/ 3,4,8. $12 gets 200%
3,4,8/ 5/ 9,11. $2 gets 33.33%

Quaddies

2/ 1,6,7,8,10/ 3,4,5,8/ 8,9. $40 gets 100%
2/ 1,6,7,8,10/ 3,4,5,8/ 2,5,6,7,10. $40 gets 40%
11/ 1,6,7,8,10/ 3,4,5,8/ 8,9. $10 gets 250%
11/ 1,6,7,8,10/ 3,4,5,8/ 2,5,6,7,10. $10 gets 10%