Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Ballarat

The Game Plan for Ballarat – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

Best Bets/ All-Up ($50 should return approx $190)

They’re all pretty short but I reckon each of the four below should really win. I’d like to play a Formula 3 just to be safe but I’m not sure we’ll get enough out of it so just have a $50 All-Up and pray that class will prevail!

Glenferrie Shuffle (Race 1 no. 5) $1.60

Breeders Crown-winning 3YO filly who’s only two threat here are if she isn’t fit enough to win first-up or Carly Seelster (6) jumps out of the ground at her first run for Adam Kelly. I think she’ll win regardless and $1.60 is good enough for me.

Doomed (Race 4 no. 7) $1.10

I’m not at all sure that this bloke should be $1.10 as Brite Spark Lombo (6) may stay in front of him early and make things difficult but I do think he’s a class above that filly and should be winning at a slightly longer quote.

Beauty Secret (Race 7 no. 3) $1.80

This Emma Stewart-trained star is the Best Bet all night as far as I’m concerned. She has been underrated her entire career but keeps producing top class performances and with all due respect to Jasmine Sheffield (1) & Blazeaway Macray (5) she is clearly the best horse engaged and should win with relative ease.

Sookin Up (Race 8 no. 4) $1.20

Put simply, this guy is going a lot further than his rivals here and if you put a line through his last start run at Menangle it’s very hard to see him getting rolled.

The Money Races

Race 1
As mentioned above, Glenferrie Shuffle (5) is the class runner and Carly Seelster (6) would only need to find her best form first-up for one of Victoria’s leading trainers to be the major danger.

5/ 6/ 2,7,8,9,10. $30 gets 600%
5/ 2,7,8,9,10/ 6. $20 gets 400%

Race 4

Doomed (7) really should win this but I have a healthy respect for Brite Spark Lombo (6) and strongly believe they’ll draw away to fight this out. Chasing Chelsea (9) is a clear third pick but a few others here can also run a drum.

7/ 6/ 9. $16 gets 1600%

7/ 6/ 3,4,5. $24 gets 800%
6/ 7/ 9. $4 gets 400%
6/ 7/ 3,4,5. $6 gets 200%

Race 7

As mentioned above I think Beauty Secret (3) will prove a class above her rivals regardless of where she ends up in the run and I also think that Jasmine Sheffield (1) and Blazeaway Macray (5) should fight out the placings. There are a few other hopes for third though so we’ll play a saver just in case.

3/ 1,5/ 1,5. $30 gets 1500%

3/ 1,5,/ 2,4,7,9. $20 gets 250%

Quaddies

7/ 1,3,9/ 12,13/ 3. $40 gets 666.67%
7/ 1,3,9/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 3. $40 gets 233.33%
6/ 1,3,9/ 12,13/ 3. $10 gets 166.67%
6/ 1,3,9/ 2,5,6,9,10/ 3. $10 gets 66.67%

THE GAME PLAN for Ballarat – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Tonight’s meeting is littered with short-priced favourites and most of them should win so value is going to be hard to come by but I’ve come up with two Money Races where the dividends won’t be huge but a profit should be made if things go to plan and as per usual I’ll be having a lash at the Quaddie.  Here we go! 

THE MONEY RACES

Race 4

I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know here with Doomed and Brite Spark Lombo clearly the top two and I think they will finish in that order with Cullen Regent almost as good a thing to fill third spot so I’m going to take some Trifectas a few different ways to make sure I’ve covered all bases.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

7/ 6/ 3.  $50 gets you 5000%

7/ 6/ 5,9.  $40 gets you 2000%

7/ 3/ 6.  $10 gets you 1000%

Race 7

Beauty Secret is clearly the class runner here and I think she will be a touch too strong for her main rivals Jasmine Sheffield and Blazeaway Macray so I’m going to take that Trifecta for a good percentage plus take one with Misschinoise and Lively Operative on the third line just in case.  Below is how I’m spending $100.

3/ 1,5/ 1,5.  $70 gets you 3500%

3/ 1,5/ 2,4.  $30 gets you 750%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 total spend

7/ 1/ 9,11,12,13/ 3.  $40 gets you 1000%

7/ 2,3,4,9/ 9,11,12,13/ 3.  $60 gets you 375%