Good Form Preview - Thursday Night at Swan Hill

THE GAME PLAN for Swan Hill – with Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Really like the look of tonight’s meeting and I’ve come up with a couple of Best Bets, a Best Value Bet, three Money Races, a Star Trialler and a crack at the Quaddie as the best way to attack the program.  

BEST BETS

The Fat Man (Race 4 no. 1) $2.40        $50 win

This bloke has been freshened up by Dave Lewis after having a tough run in the Tatlow Final behind Thats Rite last month and he was tuned up for this with an easy trial success at Hamilton last Sunday.  He may get beaten for speed by Azumah The Booma but Matt Craven will be out for the retake if that happens and I think he’ll bounce back into the winners list tonight.

Shes A Killer (Race 5 no. 3) $2.40       $50 win

This mare was terrific in defeat behind Hexham Heartbeat at Mildura last start in a heat of the Vicbred Super Series where she ran home strongly in slick sectionals to finish in third spot and with the big drop in class plus a return to the front line I think she’ll be a shade too good.

BEST VALUE BET

Little Red Cloud (Race 7 no. 1) $10    $15 win x $35 place

This mare has been mixing it with the likes of Jack In Flight, Youranut and Im Barney Rubble of late and to say that she will relish this class of horse is an understatement.  She also likes to race in a sit-sprint fashion so from the pole draw with the likely leader to be Superstar Xpress she should secure a beaut trip just off the speed and at the generous odds I think she is a terrific each way gamble.  

THE MONEY RACES

Race 4

Really good 2YO contest here with The Fat Man past the post in my opinion and I think there are limited place chances so I’m going to play a few Trifectas where the dividends won’t be huge but a profit should be made nonetheless.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

1/ 5/ 2,4.  $25 gets you 1250%

1/ 2,4/ 5.  $25 gets you 1250%

Race 5

As mentioned in the Best Bets Shes A Killer was brave in defeat behind Hexham Heartbeat last start and I think she will be winning this with her only real danger being talented 3YO filly Shegoeswooshka so I’m going to base some Trifectas around the pair.  Below is how I’m spending $50.   

3/ 4/ 2,5,9.  $23 gets you 766.66%

3/ 2,5,9/ 4.  $18 gets you 600%

4/ 3/ 2,5,9.  $9 gets you 300%

Race 6

Conflict Of Interest is the one to beat here with the resuming Hotasel and speedy Life Of Ted the most likely to knock him off so I’m going to take a couple of Trifectas based around that trio.  Below is how I’m spending $50.

1/ 2,3,4,7/ 2,3,4,7.  $41 gets you 341.66%

2,7/ 1/ 2,3,4,7.  $9 gets you 150%

QUADDIES X 2 $100 total spend

1/ 3/ 1,2,7/ 1,4,5,6,7.  $75 gets you 500%

1/ 4/ 1,2,7/ 1,4,5,6,7.  $25 gets you 166.66%

STAR TRIALLER

The Fat Man (Race 4 no. 1) $2.40

As mentioned above in the Best Bet spiel this fellow trialled nicely at Hamilton last Sunday, winning by a comfortable margin and reeling off a slippery last half of 57.1 so he looks ready to rock and roll tonight.