Adam Hamilton's Tabcorp Park Preview Preview
The Game Plans for Melton
My night on the punt will revolve around Race 2, which I think looks a ripper from an exotic point of view, so I’ll be attacking it with plenty of vigour plus playing a Quaddie and Big6 where there should be some value on offer outside of Broadways Best and Blitzthemcalder who will be very short in their respective races.
The Money Race
Race 2Put simply, Blue Seelster (12) and Jewel Castle (13) have about 20m on their rivals and although they both draw out the back over the 1720m trip, which we all know is not great, I still think they will dominate the race so I’m going to launch an all-out assault based around the pair. I’m throwing all my eggs into one basket here by spending $300 on the below bets but I’m pretty confident things will go to plan and a nice profit will be made.
Quinella: 12,13. $40 gets you 4000%
Boxed Exacta: 12,13. $40 gets you 2000%
Trifecta: 12,13/ 12,13/ 5. $30 gets you 1500%
Trifecta: 12,13/ 12,13/ 4,6,7,9,10,11. $50 gets you 416.66%
First Four: 12,13/ 12,13/ 5/ 4,6,7,8,9,10,11. $21 gets you 150%
First Four: 12,13/ 12,13/ 4,6,7,9,10,11/ 5. $18 gets you 150%
First Four: 12,13/ 12,13/ 4,6,7,9,10,11/ 4,6,7,8,9,10,11. $101 gets you 140.27%
Big6
1,4,7,8,9,10/ 7/ 1,2,5,6,11,13/ 5,6,7,9,13/ 2,5,6,7,13/
1,5,9. $100 gets you 3.7%
Quaddies X 2 $100 total spend
7/ 1,2,5,6,11,13/ 5,6,7,9,13/ 2,5,6,7,13. $70 gets you 46.66%
2,8/ 1,2,5,6,11,13/ 5,6,7,9,13/ 2,5,6,7,13. $30 gets you 10%
One of the great advantages of these monster 12-race programmes @ Tabcorp Park is that on a night like tonight, where dead-set morals are tough to find, you can still pick the eyes out of the meeting in a bid to make some folding. I cannot find a single runner (including Broadways Best, Blitzthemcalder and Spidergirl) that I’d put my life on tonight but I have found three Money Races ideally suited to this month’s ‘Fourtune’ campaign, three Value/Roughies options & a quartet of Quads that we can invest in across the programme.
Best Value/Roughies
Narra Operative (Race 6 no. 7) $8/$2.27 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
This is a race of serious winning chances but at the odds, this bloke is the one you’d most want to be betting on. He is limited in so far as he doesn’t possess genuine high speed but to offset that he is extremely tough, as evidenced by his back-to-back- Bronze medals through the Vicbred Championship series. He was heavily backed & beaten just 3.4m by Keayang Rustler in the final of that series and given Keayang Rustler would start a very short priced favourite here and most of this guy’s main rivals have drawn the second line tonight he’s a terrific Each Way bet.
Paparazzi Snapshot (Race 9 no. 4) $12
This mare has always had her fair share of talent and would seem to racing in career best form at present having come off 50m at her most recent start to beat subsequent winner, Allawart Ugo, at Horsham nine days back. Above and beyond that fact there are three key reasons I’ll be having an Each Way crack at her tonight.
1) Class runner & race favourite Aldebaran Shades (1) is first up from a very tricky draw as he’s anything but a flyer from the standing start. I’ve still tipped him on top, but he is vulnerable.
2) It is a race of limited chances; I would say only a handful of these are going well enough to figure in the finish and given this mare is one of them it gives me confidence to back her on an EW basis.
3) She is an excellent beginner from the stand who has a terrific chance of finding the front early on. That will be a massive advantage over the 2240m trip & would almost assure her a podium finish.
Ivantowin (Race 11 no. 8) $21
One mantra you would have heard from me on many occasion is that three back the poles is an OK place to be over the 1720m trip @ Tabcorp Park and given this bloke is a 90% chance to be in that position on the back of an eye-catching heat third to Penny Union (4) I’m super keen to back him at the giant odds.
The Money Races
After some massive dividends last week, TAB”s ‘Fourtune’ campaign which promises $10,000 First 4 pools for every Friday night Melton race through June continues tonight & I’ve found three races where we can exploit this great promotion.
Race 2
Put simply, the horror draws should not stop Blue Seelster (12) & Jewel Castle (13) running the Quinella here and from there it’s just a matter of fleshing out the chances to finish third and fourth.
12,13/ 12,13/ 5,7/ 4,5,6,7,8,10,11. $24 gets 100%
12,13/ 12,13/ 6,8,10,11/ 4,5,6,7,8,10,11. $26 gets 54.17%
Race 4
Broadways Best (7) is a champion mare who would chew this lot up and spit them out at her top and while she seems to be racing close to that level I’m still not entirely convinced she’s a dead-set moral here tonight. Having said that she should win all things being equal, but we’re just going to have a saver on the off chance she goes back in a race of little pressure & flashes home for second.
7/ 2,8/ 2,4,5,8/ Field. $35 gets 116.67%
2,8/ 7/ 2,4,5,8/ Field. $15 gets 50%
Race 10
As mentioned above I don’t think there are any morals on tonight’s card but if I had to pick one it would probably be Spidergirl (7) in this Vicbred Super Series heat. She has looked a class above her local opposition all the way through and should confirm that again tonight while Maori Time (3) is likely to run second if all things go to plan.
7/ 3/ 1,2,6,11/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,11. $28 gets 100%
7/ 1,11/ 1,2,3,6,11/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,9,11. $22 gets 45.83%
Quaddies (x4)
I’m going to break w/ tradition here & have $200 on the Quads because I’m not having a BIG6 & I reckon it’s a good Quaddie programme. I must however stress that all punters should bet within their means; these prices and percentages are just a guide!
7/ 5/ 5,7,9,11,13/ 2,4,5,6,7,11,12,13. $40 gets 100%
7/ 1,2,6,11,13/ 5,7,9,11,13/ 2,4,5,6,7,11,12,13. $100 gets 50%
2,8/ 5/ 5,7,9,11,13/ 2,4,5,6,7,11,12,13. $20 gets 25%
2,8/ 1,2,6,11,13/ 5,7,9,11,13/ 2,4,5,6,7,11,12,13. $40 gets 10%
Star Trialler
Tyler Bromac (Race 6 no. 13) $2.40 TAB Fixed Odds – Clickhere to bet on this horse now
This guy is having his first run for Dean Braun tonight and he was tuned up for this with a Kilmore trial success 10 days ago where he slipped home in 56.8. He has the poor draw to contend with but he isn’t opposed to any stars and is sure to take beating first up for the new stable.
Best Chance
Washmepockets (Race 5 no.1) $3.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s just one of those horses that never seem to draw well.
“There doesn’t seem to be that great speed outside him and he does have a little bit of speed so he’s going to hold up and be hard to beat one way or another.
"Normally with the preferential draws if he is to get a better draw you have to go a fair way up in class but the way it has worked out I think it’s a winnable race for him for sure.”
Others
Miss Precious Mach (Race 4 no.2) $6 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s taken a while to get her right but she seems like she’s on the way up so we thought we’d throw her in the deep end and take on the better mares.
“She’s got a fair bit of ability, even before she came from NZ she was racing against the good mares over there, so it’s no surprise that she’s stepped up to the mark.
“She’s very quick; they wouldn’t cross her unless we wanted
to be crossed. Either in front or behind the leader she is still effective. I
think she went 1:57 for the 2100 at Ballarat last start so she doesn’t have to
take a sit.
Have A Bender (Race 7 no.7) $5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We’re very happy with him, he seems to have a bit of depth about him. We’re looking forward to this race with him because he seems pretty full proof away, with the right sort of run he will be hard to beat.
“There’s no rush, it’s a long race so I wouldn’t say I’d be
in a real hurry to get around them early but he will have to do some work at
some stage; I mean who knows, he might be quick enough to lead.
“I think he’ll measure up with the better ones but at the
moment I don’t think the free for all quality was as good as they were so if he
is ever going to step up to that class the time is now.
Sectionals
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional
performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half –
Have A Bender: 27.25secsFastest Last Quarter – Motu Crusader: 55.85secs
Fastest Last Mile – Have A Bender: 1:54.36
Sectional Superstar
Have A Bender (Race 7 no. 7) – $5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
Not only did this Sunraysia recruit blister his last mile in the quickest of the night last week (1:54.36), he also finished the strongest of any horse (27.25) coming off a hot tempo.
Prior to that he was more than adequate when first-up for
Geoff Webster and with the only question looming as the stand start tonight,
you can be assured he will be strong at the end of the 2760-metre journey.
Speed Maps
Speed Maps
Race 1
This is a tricky race to read where JEREMY GEM (2) is
probably the quickest beginner off the front line but may look to take a trail
if he finds the pegs first – most likely on one of LOVEYOUGOODBOY (3), OUR DOLLY WOULD (8) or WAIKARE
ARISTOCRAT (10). Regardless of what happens early on, race favourite WAIKARE
ARISTOCRAT (10) should be in the fight early with EARL HARBOUR (11) and
BACKAS COBBER (12) the most dangerous late closers from back in the
field.
Race 2
ALL AUSSIE STAR (7) is the quickest beginner off the
front line here and should find the pegs first if Haydon Gray unleashes him at
the start, but his normal MO is to take a trail in transit, so expect either MISTER
RUFUS (5) or PUBLIC PERSUASION (6) to oblige in that respect. Class
runners BLUE SEELSTER (12) & JEWEL CASTLE (13) will be on the
move in the early/middle stages and should come with sweeping, sustained runs
when they do.
Race 3
There is remarkable little early pace drawn off the front
line here so while she is no speed demon LADY TARAS BULBA (6) should be
able to find the front here with FLAXTON FILLY (1) capable of holding
her up behind her in transit. BETTOR BELIEVE IT (7) can either roll
forward to sit parked or jag early and come with one sweeping run while MARY
MON (4), JASMINE SHEFFIELD (9) and MADAM POM POM (10) will have to
outsprint their rivals from the rear for success.
Race 4
MISS PRECIOUS MACH (2) has shown good early
speed in several Aussie starts and would be favoured to find and hold the front
if BROADWAYS BEST (7) goes back at the start. The key to the race will
be whether BROADWAYS BEST (7) goes forward in search of the early lead,
which would leave MISS PRECIOUS MACH (2) with a soft trip and REPELEM
(8) in no-man’s-land, or she goes back, which would help likely breeze
horse LOMBO CLOUD NINE (5) and polemarker RIVIERA KISS (1).
Race 5
The scratching of Exciteusinthecity has split this race wide
open. WASHMEPOCKETS (1), ARTOC (3), PETE OF PAN (4), HENRIK ZETTERBERG (5) &
SUMMER ACE (6) all have degrees of early speed but PETE OF PAN (4) would
be quickest and if he finds the front he’ll look for a trail from one of the
two horses drawn outside him. CULLEN BROMAC (11) is the only horse
likely to put any pressure into the race from the second line while ALCHEMY
(13) can be dangerous if the speed is on throughout.
Race 6
This is another tricky race to map where LILLA (1) is
the fastest beginner off the front line but she is sure to look for a trail at
her earliest convenience, probably behind a horse like OHOKA MACH (5) or
OUR CALL OF DUTY (6). Expect NARRA OPERATIVE (7) to keep rolling
forward in search of the breeze early on with FIERY ACHIEVER (9), DUAL AGENT
TABMAN (11) and TYLER BROMAC (13) all weighing up the option of
making a mid-race move or coming with one run at their rivals late.
Race 7
AITCH CUE (2), PACIFIC SOUL (4) & POCKET BOY
(5) have all demonstrated their talents from the standing starts &
should fight out the early lead although POCKET BOY (5) is most likely
to take up the running. Moves from there are not easy to work out although HAVE
A BENDER (7) will want to get into the race at some stage with TOULOUSE
LAUTREC (9) while JUKEBOX MUSIC (11) & OUR BLACKBIRD (13) will
be better suited coming from well off the speed in transit.
Race 8
There is plenty of speed off the front line here but BELLMAC
KODY (4) should be able to find the early lead before most likely handing
up to Holmfield winner STEAL A SIXPENCE (5) pretty early on. Champion
youngster BLITZTHEMCALDER (9) will be on his bike as soon as the dust
settles and should ply his trade from the breeze over the last lap while SOHO
LEDGER (1) will rely on an OK beginning to occupy a handy spot along the
pegs and GLENFERRIE DREAMER (3) should be handy in the run.
Race 9
MISTER INDEPENDENT (2) & PAPARAZZI SNAPSHOT
(4) are both go-forward horses who should fight out the early lead from the
strands here while race favourite ALDEBARAN SHADES (1) – who isn’t
always brilliantly away from the tapes – will hope for a safe beginning and the
chance to escape the peg-lines early on. DUKE OF THE MOMENT (8) is
another quick beginner and although he’s off the 10m he’ll also be in the fight
early with every other runner needing luck to figure.
Race 10
PARIS PEPPERELL (1) is a good beginner off the mobile
arm and should be able to hold up for as long as she likes although MAORI
TIME (3) has displayed early speed in her short career to date and
both DORA PEPPERELL (2) & FIFTYSHADESOFBROWN (6) can also fly
the start. Whatever happens early expect SPIDERGIRL (7) to roll forward
mid-race in search of the lead or the breeze with DIZZYINTEREST (11) the
biggest finisher off the second row.
Race 11
EYREHART (2) comfortably led a heat of this series
last week and while PENNY UNION (4), who led the other heat, should make
a challenge early, expect EYREHART (2) to hold the top in transit. If
that scenario plays out then WENYAHOTYAHOT (1) & IVANTOWIN (8) will
secure cosy peg-line trips with MANNY TIAVON (9) & EXSALONT (5) working
at some stage in transit & SALOHCIN (11) reliant upon a cart into
the race for its shot at success.
Race 12
There should be little early pressure here with COAST
PATROL (1) leading early & REAL ELEGANCE (2) dropping in for the
trail. FEELS LIKE A DREAM (7) battled on well after a tough trip last
time out and should once again be made to occupy the breeze at some stage with
every other runner probably left to hope for some late luck to win unless one
of the two first-starters show blazing gate speed at the start.
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