Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Good Form Preview - Wednesday @ Kilmore

The Game Plan for Kilmore – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($100 All Up Formula 2 & 3 gets 25 units)
Ideal Diamante (Race 3 No.11) $1.60
Having recently arrived from New Zealand, this gelding is a winner of 2 from 8 with a further 3 placings and his last start effort when wide and coming from out the back was OK behind Golden Slipper winner Beaudiene Boaz before they both departed the Shaky Isles. Most importantly he has trialled in Victoria and Kate Gath could hardly hold him slower in his Melton hit out a couple of weeks ago. While the second row is never ideal, he has the class to overcome it and should provide a winning start to our three leg all up.

Top Trio (Race 5 No.4) $4.80
The form reads a long last at his most recent start but as punters we sometimes have to be forgiving and the conditions on that day weren’t great so all we can really do is worry about his previous form and on that he looks more like an odds-on chance in this race. He has the speed to fire off the arm and work his way to the top and from there I can’t see them getting past him.

Trentleigh (Race 6 No.6) $6.50
It’s always a little risk when you are relying on horses who have shown a predilection of making mistakes however this guy is coming out of a very strong race on debut where he stormed to the line like a smart horse and following that he again produced a mammoth effort to run into the placings behind Thebackpagescribe who has gone on to win since.

Best Roughies ($5 win x $10 place)
One Tough Reign (Race 5 No.7) $51
The two roughies today will have us hoping and praying at the start. The first of those is One Tough Reign (7) who has actually been racing in really good form and has probably only been marked at such big odds due to the barrier but he can really fly the arm and even if there is only a 10% chance of him getting across Top Trio (4) early, it’s enough for us to have a little punt just in case.

Terra Beau (Race 7 No.7) $51
This guy is perhaps and even better chance of flying across the face of the field and his return to form last start suggests he can be followed with some confidence in a pretty even race. While we won’t be getting too excited on either roughie, they both look good overs.

The Money Races
Race 1 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
This looks a pretty good betting race with Tai Chi (2) fourth up and in a much more suitable race. She looks the standout elect however La Stella (1), Champ Devine (3) and Command The Wind (8) look the only dangers so we are playing two trifectas to try and secure a dividend here.

2/1,3,8/1,3,8. $24 gets 400%
1,3,8/2/1,3,8. $16 gets 266.67%

Quaddies (x4 worth $100)
4/1,6,11/2,9,11/4,6,7,8. $54 gets 150%
4/1,6,11/1,7,12/4,6,7,8. $18 gets 50%
1,2,6,7/1,6,11/2,9,11/4,6,7,8. $15 gets 10.41%
1,2,6,7/1,6,11/1,7,12/4,6,7,8. $13 gets 9.02%

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