Saturday, August 2, 2014

Good Form Preview - Saturday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Tabcorp Park – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
These once-a-month Saturday night Melton meetings are now becoming tradition & this card is a cracker, w/ three feature races and a pretty tempting support programme to boot. I could have found four or five ‘Best Bets’ but I’ve opted to tackle only the two who I cannot see possibly going under. From there I’ve been keener than usual to find some Value runners w/ TAB giving us Fixed Odds betting on two of the three feature races. Add to that haul a couple of Money Races & a dig @ the Early Quad & suddenly we’re invested in 8 of the 10 races up for decision.

Best Bets ($100 All-Up)
Smudge Bromac (Race 3 no. 7) $1.80
This bloke was beaten fair & square in similar race to this one last time out but there are no Our Eastwood Cullen’s drawn inside him tonight & I just think he’ll roll forward, sit parked or lead and prove too strong in either role tonight.

Keayang Cullen (Race 4 no. 6) $1.40
It’s half tempting to think that this guy’s run of FFA successes will soon come to an end but the reality is that’s not likely to happen. Plus he has every conceivable condition (front line draw, short course trip, etc) to suit tonight so it would come as a massive shock if he didn’t lead & win.

Best Value ($10 Win $30 Place)
Stoned I Am (Race 5 no. 7) $16/$3.30 TAB Fixed Odds
The very fact that My High Expectations (10) has drawn the second row here should ensure that the tempo is genuine throughout and if it is then the above sit-sprinter will be storming home ominously when it matters most. I marked him $9 for tonight’s affair so the $16 w/ TAB is too good to ignore & I strongly encourage you to take him 1 x 3.

Beauty Secret (Race 7 no. 7) $10/$2.63 TAB Fixed Odds
This gun mare has been a good thing beaten in two of her past three starts, both timewhen driven cold and storming home from well back, so on face value the wide front line draw won’t be any great imposition tonight. I marked her @ $6 in a race with half-a-dozen almost equal winning hopes so the double figure quote is good enough for me. 

Metro Mike (Race 7 no. 6) $12/$3 TAB Fixed Odds
He is a stablemate of Beauty Secret (7) who was sort of forced into an unfamiliar role when leading in a heat of this race last weekend but for mine, he’s always been better when driven with a sit and that’s how he’ll be steered from the draw tonight. At his best, he has a super turn of foot and again, the TAB have marked him $12 against my $7.50 & that’s tempting enough for me.

The Money Races
Race 3 ($60 Flexi First 4’s)
I’m very bullish about Smudge Bromac (7) being too good here and the general theme in these Claiming affairs is the class will rise to the top so I’m ignoring the well drawn  $10K to $25K Claimers in preference for those requiring $30K and above when picking those likely to fill up the dais.

7/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10. $24 gets 100%
7/ 4,8,9,10/ 4,8,9,10/ Field. $36 gets 50%

Race 10 ($60 Flexi Trifectas)
Kiss Kenny (4) would appear to have something of a mortgage on this race as he’s a 90% chance of pinging to the front & never getting headed from there. The only little threat to his dominance might be Missanger Management (1) if she holds the leaders back and if she doesn’t upset the fave she should still fill a hole.

4/ 1/ 2,3,7,8. $40 gets 1000%
4/ 2,3,7,8/ 1. $10 gets 250%
1/ 4/ 2,3,7,8. $10 gets 250%

The Early Quads (x4 for $130)
2/ 1,3,5,8,9,10/ 7/ 6. $48 gets 800%
1,8,12/ 1,3,5,8,9,10/ 7/6. $72 gets 400%
2/ 4,7/ 7/ 6. $4 gets 200%
1,8,12/ 4,7/ 7/ 6. $6 gets 100%
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter – Beauty Secret: 27.37ecs
Fastest Last Half – Ginger Bliss: 54.78secs
Fastest Last Mile – Remember Joe: 1:54.77
Sectional Superstar
Quite A Moment (Race 4 no.1) – $6 TAB Fixed Odds
Not only was this mare visually stunning in the Lightfoot Laurels, she smashed her rivals on the clock with a blistering last quarter of 28.28sec. That was off the back of waiting for the sprint lane to appear from three pegs. She is likely to end up behind the leader tonight and from that position, she will be hard to hold out late.
TABCORP Park Trainer Talk
Craig Demmler
Best Chance
Glenferrie Tyhpoon (Race 1 No.2) $2
"I was really happy with him first up. He let go with a pretty quick third quarter and sustained that to the line.
"We gave him a bit of a let up with the idea of getting to the Breeders Crown a little fresher and it seems to have worked. He should push forward after they step and be in it for  along way."
Essbee Doubleyou (Race 2 No.5) $3.50
"He was probably just beaten by a better horse last time but we were still pleased with the way he went. He has kept improving since he has come to the stable and while there is some speed drawn inside him, i'd expect him to come off the arm and hopefully find the front.
"This race doesn't look any harder so he should run well again."
Sunset Invasion (Race 5 No.5) $5
"Jodi isn't sure whether or not he can find the top with so much speed inside him, he may have to slot in at some stage but there is also a chance he could cross them after the start.
"This is his first really big test but he has trialled well at Bacchus Marsh recently and if he can measure up here we will know we've got a pretty nice horse on out hands."
Glenferrie EJ (Race 6 No.9) $6
"I really didn't know what to make of her first up run because while she has always had a few issues she still went pretty rough and we think she's better than that.
"After the run she pulled up with a little cold but she's completely over that now so hopefully if she returns to her absolute best she would be competitive tonight."
Our Eastwood Cullen (Race 8 No.3) $2.80
"We like to call him the ATM machine at the minute, he just keeps racking up wins.
"He has the early speed to go forward at the start and if he can find the front he would be a good chance.
"There just wasn't the right claimer this week so we've decided to have a go at the M1 and see if we can't pinch one while he is in good form."



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