Friday, August 15, 2014

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Despite the lack of a Best Bet or a Best Value on tonight’s Game Plan I’m actually very keen to punt. The reason is that even as I was analysing this evening’s form some three days ago, I had already circled three races I wanted to play in and back then had a pretty good idea about exactly what I wanted to do. I’m attacking the multiples in all of those races very hard tonight while also trying to snare some early folding in the Early Quad.

The Money Races
Race 3 (Flexi Trifectas for $90)
I love these PBD Claimers because the draws and speed maps half go out the window and we really get to focus on the class engaged. Tonight, the maps and class actually align with Catch Your Breath (5) and Smudge Bromac (6) likely to roll forward in the early stages. Once they get their spots they should dominate the race but I’ve been most impressed with Kotare Roland (8) of recent times & wouldn’t be surprised to see him or mercurial sit-sprinter Inky Cullen (9) show up late.

5,6/ 5,6,8,9/ 5,6,8,9. $54 gets 450%
5,6/ 5,6,8,9/ 2,4. $18 gets 150%
8,9/ 5,6,8,9/ 5,6,8,9. $18 gets 150%

Race 5 (Flexi First 4’s for $100)
This race might only have a small field but it’s a beauty for punting. Simply put, the way I see things panning out here Keayang Cullen (1) will lead and Magical Telf (2) will sit on his back. If Smoken Up (6) doesn’t get aggressive through the middle stages Keayang Cullen (1) will win. If he does then Magical Telf (2) will be hard to hold out. Either way one of the two should prevail & if Teo Enteo (4) runs third it could be Christmas for us.

1/ 2/ 4/ 5,6. $30 gets 1500%
1/ 2/ 5,6/ 4,5,6. $30 gets 750%
2/ 1/ 4/ 5,6. $15 gets 750%
2/ 1/ 5,6/ 4,5,6. $15 gets 375%
1/ 4/ 2/ 5,6. $10 gets 500%

Race 8 (Flexi Trifectas for $60)
The preferred scenario here would be for Zedalite (3) to lead before handing up to My High Expectations (6) mid-race because if that plays out the latter horse will win and the former should run second. If Zedalite (3) opts to hold the front over the 1720m trip things get a little trickier but I still think we will get one of the Tricks below.

6/ 3/ 4,8/ 4,8. $40 gets 2000%
6/ 3/ 4,8/ 1. $10 gets 500%
6/ 3/ 4,8/ 2,5. $10 gets 250%

The EARLY Quads (x4 for $160)
9/ 1/ 5,6/ 2,5,6,8,10. $45 gets 450%
9/ 5,7,9/ 5,6/ 2,5,6,8,10. $45 gets 150%
5,6,7,8,10/ 1/ 5,6/ 2,5,6,8,10. $60 gets 100%
9/ 1/ 8,9/ 2,5,6,8,10. $10 gets 100%

Speed Maps










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