Thursday, August 14, 2014

Good Form Preview - Thursday Night @ Swan Hill

The Game Plan for Swan Hill – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($80 win)
Courageous Emm (Race 2 No.2) $2.20
This guy is pretty talented and he hasn’t drawn inside on the front row for quite a long time so this may well be his opportunity to cross down to the pegs first. Last time he was back in a slowly run race so his effort to come three wide and battle on at the end for fourth was better than it looks on paper.  His win prior to that won in good fashion against good horses so as an almost 4YO in C0 class, he has a little advantage.

Best Value ($25 each way)
One Knight Stand (Race 5 No.1) $10
I’m confident that even if today isn’t his day, this horse can go on and win his fair share of races. The little question mark today is that there is a stack of speed outside him so whether he kicks up to try and hold the leaders back, or is resigned to being back along the pegs, I still think he has the talent to be involved at the finish. He ran home under extremely difficult circumstances on debut and he was OK in a stronger race last time so rate him a big chance at the odds.

Best Roughie ($5 win x $15 place)
Always Arjay (Race 1 No.1) $10
Although this fella may be first up, he has won at trial at Echuca on the way back and actually showed some potential against very good horses in his debut preparation. He is still learning but he has a good little sprint on him and all three of the favourites have drawn poorly so he must come in with an each way chance at the very least.

Quaddies (x3 worth $110)
1,3,4,6/1,6/1,6,8,9/2,7. $58 gets 90.65%
1,3,4,6/1,6/1,6,8,9/1,5,6,8. $26 gets 20.31%
1,3,4,6/3,10,11,12/1,6,8,9/2,7. $26 gets 20.31%

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