Saturday, August 23, 2014

Good Form Preview - Super Sunday @ HQ

The Game Plan for Super Sunday – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)

D-Day is finally here! It’s felt like a longer wind-up than usual but Super Sunday, with its 10 Group 1 races has now arrived & we owe it to ourselves to celebrate the day w/ a punt! Often times, Breeders Crown finals day is an exotic-fest given many of the races have almost been decided before they have been run but that’s not the case this year with so many favourites & big-name performers drawn poorly in their respective divisions. I total, I’ve only tipped 5 of the 10 favourites to win but there are three I think can almost not get beaten which we’ll have in a big All-Up, while we’ll also be playing in the 4YO boys final, the 2YO fillies’ final & the Early Quad.

Best Bets/All-Up ($100 Win)
Frith (Race 1 no. 8) $1.40
We’ve spoken about this all week but in my opinion Frith is a genuinely outstanding open-age mare tackling one of the poorer sets of 4YO mares we’ve seen in recent times. The inside back line draw isn’t pretty but she’ll be off the pegs early on and once she finds the breeze it will only be a matter of how far for mine.

My Arya (Race 2 no. 6) $1.60
On face value, this trotting filly represents the best bet of the day by a pretty long way. Not only does she remain @ $1.60, which seems ludicrously generous, she brings over excellent from from NZ & two Aussie runs which have seen her roll the enormously gifted Shared Interest & finish second in the Redwood Classic to Eljaykay Phoenix. She’ll need to make a significant mistake to lose this race & I don’t think she will.

Follow The Stars (Race 9 no. 7) $1.30
This bloke is being spoken about in the most reverential of tones by legendary Kiwi conditioner Mark Purdon & he is proving his value on the track as well, particularly here in Oz. The key to this race is that every horse drawn to his inside will hand him the lead and if he leads he cannot get rolled. So if you do the math the $1.30 is a steal.

Best Roughies ($5 Win $20 Place)

Niki No No (Race 6 no. 12) $21 & Bamako Mali (Race 6 no. 13) $31
Almost everybody agrees that this is the toughest & most even race on the programme, and that should mean that it’s very quickly run. What we’re looking for is Soho Tokyo (3) to lead early on & at least make Katy Perry (4) work to find the front once she does. The dream would then be for a series of moves to ensue which will ensure a solid speed and give whoever has the three-wide cart in a chance to win the race. By my reckoning the two fillies above have a great chance of being in the right spot at the right time & at their silly odds we may get one of them home.

The Money Race - Race 5

I was already tipping Bit Of A Legend (13) here but I admit to being even further swayed by Cran Dalgety’s confidence in his pint-sized gun. I’m also envisaging a race where he works to the lead or breeze and Chilli Palmer (5) is left to spot him too much ground in transit. Having said that I still think Amanda Grieve’s speed machine will join our top tip on the dais and I’ve gone very skinny in exotics in the hope of snaring a really decent collect.

13/ 5/ 2,6,11. $60 gets 2000%
13/ 2,6,11/ 5. $20 gets 666.67%  
5/ 13/ 2,6,11. $20 gets 666.67%

The EARLY Quads (x4 gets $150)
8/ 6/ 2/ 1. $40 gets 4000%
8/ 6/ 2/ 3,7. $30 gets 1500%
8/ 6/ 6,7/ 1. $40 gets 2000%
1,3,5,6/ 6/ 2/ 1. $40 gets 1000%


The Game Plan for Melton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bets ($40 win)
Spidergirl (Race 3 No.1) $1.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
There has been plenty of conjecture around just how fast Blitzthemcalder (3) is willing to go mid-race but even if he cuts the ribbons, I’m convinced this mare has ascended to the heights as one of Australia’s best trotters. She twice tested Great Southern Star winner Keystone Del earlier in the year and has been thoroughly dominant since so all things being equal, she can either lead and absorb some pressure, or take a trail and outsprint them in the lane.

Chilli Palmer (Race 5 No.5) $3.60 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
Quite simply, this horse is the single quickest pacer in Australia outside of perhaps ImThemightyquinn and his heat run to come from the clouds had to be seen to be believed. While he will generally need some sort of luck, he may be able to slot in a little closer than usual from the barrier and then unleash with a monster sprint when the gaps appear.

Best Value ($35 each way)
Bad Habbott (Race 9 No.1) $9 TAB Fixed Odds - Click Here to bet now.
This guy was posting some pretty quick sections and mile rates at Menangle prior to his Breeders Crown campaign where he was luckless in a heat behind One Over Da Moon when making an early mistake and then he got planted three pegs before rocketing late in his repechage to be narrowly turned over. He can either attempt to hold the lead, or take a trail and be a monster chance regardless.

The Money Race
Race 1 ($50 worth of Flexi Trifectas) - Click Here to bet now.
This looks the perfect race to play multiples because the speed map is well established. Courageousnquick (6) is a blistering beginner who will likely be first to the pegs while Im Smouldering (5) can continue hunting forward to try and take the top in the early to middle stages. If that pans out and Frith (8) can get off the pegs and run to the breeze mid-race, they will surely dominate from there. Im Smouldering (5) is probably the safest way to bank our main trifectas due to the fact she will be ahead of her major danger in transit but we will also save on the favourite landing the Group 1 chocolates.

6/8/5. $17 gets 1700%
6/5/8. $13 gets 1300%
8/6/5. $12 gets 1200%
8/5/6. $8 gets 800%

Race 3 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas) - Click Here to bet now.
Eljaykay Phoenix (7) has established himself as the state’s best juvenile squaregaiter with wins in the Group 1 Redwood Classic and Vicbred Super Series however Shared Interest (2) proved that gap is quickly closing with an impressive repechage win over his major danger. Either can win but what is almost guaranteed is that they will dominate affairs and should run the quinella so we are going to play three trifectas with Illawong Armstrong (3), Kyvalley Boomerang (4), Fabrication (5) and Col Du Galibier (10) as the place dangers to make some money off the race.

2,7/2,7/3,4,5,10. $24 gets 300%
2,7/3,4,5,10/2,7. $16 gets 200%
2,7/3,4,5,10/3,4,5,10. $10 gets 41.66%

The Early Quaddie (x1 worth $72) - Click Here to bet now.
While I’m keener to split up the normal Quaddie, the Early Quad looks skinny enough to have a little dip at. As mentioned above, the first leg will be dominated by the top three in betting but I’m not sure there is as much between them as the market suggests. In the second leg it gets a bit tougher but Val Gardena (3) won her repechage well while My Arya (6) has the class and Meadow Valley Road (11) is honest. If we can safely navigate that leg then Shared Interest (2) or Eljaykay Phoenix (7) into Spidergirl (1) looks a relatively painless ride home.

5,6,8/3,6,11/2,7/1. $72 gets 400%

The Quaddies (x3 worth $100) - Click Here to bet now.
Chilli Palmer (5) and Bit Of A Legend (13) really do have a class edge in the first leg however they are not over the line so our last Quad will safe on their main dangers in Almost El Eagle (2), Marty Monkhouser (6), Flaming Flutter (9) and Pachacuti (11). The second leg is again worth splitting up with Katy Perry (4) and Lina Lovegrace (8) the two main hopes but outside of them you have to play wide. The last two legs are a little less complicated with Bling It On (3) and Our Sky Major (11) a solid way to bank the third leg and Just Cala (1), Spicy Stride (3), Barynya (8) and Nike Franco (11) the must includes in the last.

5,13/4,8/3,11/1,3,8,11. $48 gets 150%
5/3,5,10,11,12,13/3,11/1,3,8,11. $24 gets 50%
2,6,9,11/4,8/3,11/1,3,8,11. $28 gets 43.75%

Speed Maps

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