Monday, August 18, 2014

Good Form Preview - Monday @ Shepparton

The Game Plan for Shepparton – with Blake Redden (@BlakeRedden)
Best Bet ($40 win)
Kains Boy (Race 1 No.7) $4.40
There is a stack of gate speed off the front row here but when this guy is let fly off the arm, he can really burn out. From the awkward alley I’m not sure if he can cross them, if he does he would be closer to an even money chance but even if he doesn’t, he has been in outstanding form against better horses so should run a race regardless.
Veracity Red (Race 5 No.6) $3.20
I loved the way this guy picked up and hit the line when clear at Cobram last time and that was against a better class field than today. Add to the face that he clearly outsprinted Future Operator (1) there and whether he uses his gate speed or comes with one run, he looks the horse to beat at a decent price.

Best Value ($10 win x $15 place)
Collide (Race 9 No.4) $8.50
This filly has had just the one start in an easier race than this and while she was beaten into fourth, her effort was pretty strong. She not only worked around them mid-race, she poured the pressure on in the third quarter and but for a check in the concluding stages, would have finished a little closer to the winners. If she rolls forward after the start, then I can see her running another good race at the odds.
The Money Race
Race 3 ($40 worth of Flexi Trifectas)
Montu (3) clearly has his fair of ability having been backed in both runs and running up to that support particularly last time with a solid effort while Christian Torado (4) can probably cross them at the start and if they are the first couple in running, I can’t see them missing the trifecta so we are playing the following three combinations.
3,4/3,4/1,6,9,11. $30 gets 300%
3,4/1,6,9,11/3,4. $12 gets 150%
3,4/1,6,9,11/1,6,9,11. $8 gets 25%
Quaddies (x4 worth $105)
1,2,6,8/5,6/3/4,6. $33 gets 206.25%
1,2,6,8/4,7,8/3/4,6. $24 gets 100%
1,2,6,8/5,6/1,2,5/4,6. $24 gets 50%
1,2,6,8/4,7,8/1,2,5/4,6. $24 gets 33.33%

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