Friday, August 8, 2014

Good Form Game Plan - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
The wait between metropolitan meetings hasn’t felt quite so long this week with plenty of Breeders Crown action to keep us all pumped up in recent days but it’s still nice to be back @ HQ even if there aren’t any genuine features up for decision. This programme is one where where I could happily punt in 7 or 8 of the 10 races but we’re probably better of sweeping all our Best Bets into 1 big All-Up while targeting 1 Best Value best, 2 Money Races & both the early & late Quads.

Best Bets/ All-Up ($50 Win)
Our Sky Major (Race 4 no. 8) $1.10
There’s been plenty of conjecture over this guy’s gate eight draw tonight but I don’t think it will be any issue at all. If you get the chance to go back and see his last few wins then you’ll know that he could see daylight in the last 80m here and still mow this lot down so hope for $1.20 and start your All-Up here.

Keayang Steamer (Race 7 no. 8) $2.20
This guy also has the mega-awkward inside-back-line alley, but once again I don’t see it being a massive imposition. He is slightly more of a risk as he’s been off the scene for a little while & does face some handy ones but this is the horse many are expecting will become Victoria’s number one pacer this term, so an M2 to M4 affair should be well within his grasp, first-up or not.

Blitzthemcalder (Race 8 no. 4) $1.50
This is essentially a two horse race between the above trotter & Sunset Invasion (9) and given the way the draws have fallen, I can’t see how Blitz can get rolled. This is a tougher race than the one he faced last start but the circumstances should be similar in that he’ll bully his way to the early/mid-race lead and from there they really should not run him down.

Upanatom (Race 9 no. 7) $1.10
This guy is an eight-time winner tackling a moderate C1 final who will almost certainly lead his rivals around tonight. Enough said.

Best Value ($15 Each Way)
Asoka (Race 5 no. 5) $5.50
I admit to being a card-carrying member of this guy’s fan club but he really does look to have found his right race tonight. Simply put, Alison Chisholm needs to put her foot down at the start and never stop charging until he finds the lead because if he gets that role he’s not going to let horses get past him without a fight.

The Money Races
Race 8
As mentioned earlier, I think Blitzthemcalder (4) has a mortgage on this race and the other class runner Sunset Invasion (9) should join him on the podium. Shes An Image (3) is your clear third pick & if that trio comprise the Trifectas we should make something out of this event.

4/ 9/ 3. $25 gets 2500%
4/ 3/ 9. $10 gets 1000%
4/ 9/ 1,2,5,6,8. $25 gets 500%
4/ 1,2,5,6,8/ 9. $10 gets 200%

Race 9
Upanatom (7) should start @ profoundly prohibitive odds & put his rivals to the sword here & based on recent evidence he should be followed home by Sinead (2), Eyes On The Sky (9) & Pas Mate (11). Given the favourite’s very skinny odds we’re almost certainly best to attack First 4’s to try & make something decent from the race.

7/ 2,9,11/ 2,9,11/ 2,6,8,9,11,12,13. $60 gets 200%
7/ 2,9,11/ 6,8,12,13/ 2,6,8,9,11,12,13. $40 gets 88.89%

The EARLY Quads (x2 for $100)
2,4,9,10/ 2,6,8,9/ 6/ 8. $68 gets 425%
2,4,9,10/ 2,6,8,9/ 5/ 8. $32 gets 200%

The Quads (x2 for $100)
5,9/ 1,2,5,6,8,10,11,12/ 8/ 4. $60 gets 375%
3,6,7,11,12/ 1,2,5,6,8,10,11,12/ 8/ 4. $40 gets 100%

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Saturday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Quarter – Jaccka Clive: 26.96ecs
Fastest Last Half – Jaccka Clive: 54.28secs
Fastest Last Mile – Jaccka Clive: 1:52.84

Sectional Superstar
Jaccka Clive (Race 7 no.12)
If times mean anything, this guy can get back in the run and still outsprint his rivals tonight. His effort last time to burn home, albeit with a soft run, was perhaps the best form he has shown for quite some time and if he can improve on that then he is in for a nice preparation.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Ross Sugars
Best Chance
Daylight Dan (Race 5 No.3) $12
“He has been really consistent in the few runs we’ve had him for and he is still only a five-year-old so I’m sure he will win a few more races yet.

“The start is probably going to be important but if he can get to the pegs first then he has to come in with an each way chance.”
Illawong Joyful (Race 4 No.7) $26
“She is another who will need to get across them early to have her chances enhanced but although Sky Major looks really hard to beat, with the right run I think she’s almost as good a chance as any to run in the placings.”

La Machane (Race 7 No.2) $16
“It was terrific to see her return to some of her best form over the sprint trip last time where she showed some gate speed. It gets harder here though over the longer trip and with a bit of gate speed around her but she’s another that would be a good each way chance if things do work out.”

Illawong Magic (Race 8 No.2) $26
He was able to find the front over the sprint two starts back and win at big odds but with Blitzthemcalder and Sunset Invasion involved here I’d say he is going to be right up against it tonight.”

Speed Maps

Who leads?
Bellmac Kody (4) races best from the head of affairs and should have the necessary gate speed to lead although Sonofanearl (3) can also leave the mobile arm well and may have been sharpened up by his Monte experiences.
Where will the pressure come from?
There are no dead-set enforcers engaged but Craig Demmler duo Glenferrie Typhoon (9) & Glenferrie Typhoon (10) will not be sitting back over the 1720m. Expect one or both of the classy pair to go forward mid-race and ensure that the tempo is genuine at least.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Nothing is likely to come from the clouds to blouse the leaders here although Rostevarren (2) has a good turn of foot & is racing in top form from a pretty handy draw.

Who leads?
The fact that we know little or nothing about Big Lucy’s (6) gate speed makes this race extremely difficult to map. She may lead these on her ear or she might drop out early leaving the lead to be decided between Yankee Showgirl (2), Dicon Lifetti (3) and Sporty Anna (5).
Where will the pressure come from?
Count The Aces (9) sat parked and proved way too strong for her rivals last start so she has the bottom to breeze and win if require this evening.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
As mentioned, Big Lucy (6) may go forward or back at the start but if she does restrain, there’s no doubt her turn of foot would still be dangerous late while Wegottarocketmachine (8) can also motor home if she’s at or near her very best form.

Who leads?
Im Living The Dream (2) has the early speed to hold her own early one but after a couple of disappointing recent performances expect her to hand over to probably The Noble Steed (6) or potentially Desdon Murruffy (5) tonight.
Where will the pressure come from?
Whichever of The Noble Steed (6) or Desdon Murruffy (6) doesn’t lead looks most likely to carry the can as the death seat horse tonight although neither will drill from outside the speed.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Three Pints (4) is always capable of producing a barnstorming late run of the pace is on throughout while Travtiano (8) can sprint quickly when right but it’s been a while since he showed that turn of speed.

Who leads?
Almost every front line runner should engage in a battle for early ascendancy here with Wolfpack (1) or Illawong Joyful (7) likely to win that war before potentially handing up to Our Sky Major (8) if he comes knocking for the top.
Where will the pressure come from?
On face value, there will be no heat at all here once they lob their spots.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Most of these can let down with a quick quarter/half headed by the in-form Broadband (4) & With Gusto (10) here.

Who leads?
There is any amount of front line speed here with Freemason (1), Daylight Dan (3), Asoka (5) & Bettor Sweet (6) all quick beginners but with the first two of those horse likely to take a trail if they do ping the start, one of the latter two runners should work to the top.
Where will the pressure come from?
If he doesn’t get the front born enforcer Asoka (5) will certainly keep his rivals honest and if he does lob the top then the death seat role may fall to NSW visitor Lombo Toscannini (7).
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Metro Mike (9) is the obvious dive-bomb threat if they opt to sit back in transit with him but Victoria’s two best 4YO mares, Im Smouldering (11) & Tandias Bromac (12) should both come with one run late and prove tough to hold out if the speed has been a cracker. Daylight Dan (3) is a blowout hope if he happens to lob the trail in transit.

Who leads?
Standing Start races are very tough to map @ the best of times but they’re brutal when many participants have little experience @ the caper. The one horse we can be pretty sure will begin quickly is Remember Joe (6) but Grins Rendition (1) & Road To Rock (2) should also handle the strands.
Where will the pressure come from?
Narra Operative (12) can also begin swiftly from the tapes and is very adept at playing bully in this class while Wheatsheaf Avaball (3) also thrives on racing tough and wide and should do that tonight.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
This is another race where most of them can be dangerous with the right sit in running headed by Hes Kinky (11), Courageousnquick (5) & Turnpike Cruiser (10).

Who leads?
This looks a three-way battle between new-look speed demon La Machane (2) grinding enforcer Exciteusinthecity (3) & brilliant late bloomer National Service (5). The former horse I almost certainly better with a sit so should be comfortable handing over to wither of the others but Exciteusinthecity (3) should eventually take the lead.
Where will the pressure come from?
If Keayang Steamer (8) can extricate off the pegline early he’s the number one candidate top play bully here, even first up from a spell, while Jaccka Clive (12) is also capable of filling that bill despite thriving in a sit-sprint role last time out.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Gumdrops (10) is only tine but she’s about as fast as horses get over 200-400m so watch for her to be flashing home along with Villagem (11) and perhaps even Composed (9) depending on who gives who a cart into the race. 

Who leads?
The early battle should be between Illawong Magic (2) & Shes An Image (3) although whoever wins that war should be happy enough to trail behind Blitzthemcalder (4) when he inevitably comes looking for the top.
Where will the pressure come from?
Sunset Invasion (9) is the other class trotter engaged and while he’s not really suite to sitting parked he should be left with little choice but to do just that from his draw tonight.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
It would be a massive shock if something came from the clouds to win this race but Empire Earl (1), Maoris Pocket (6) & Monsieur Deville (8) could all run home into third or fourth if the card fall their way in transit.

Who leads?
Upanatom (7) is a very slick beginner who should spear across this lot & find the top within 100m of the start.
Where will the pressure come from?
There won’t be any pressure; pure and simple. If we’re looking for a chair horse though, Eyes On The Sky (9) may well fill that role.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Pas Mate (11) is going really well and may even charge into second spot from back in the field while Sinead (2) & Arts Professor (13) look your next best hopes.

Who leads?
Diamond Ace (4) really should have the toe to head this lot off but once he finds the top John Newberry will have to decide whether to hold that advantage or take a trail behind the horse that may worry him in Young Modern (5).
Where will the pressure come from?
If Young Modern (5) can’t bully his way to the top it’s unlikely he’ll be letting Diamond Ace (4) get away with many easy fractions in front.
Who are the dangerous swoopers late?
Outrageous El (6) is a Tasmanian Derby winner with a sizzling turn off foot who’ll be sitting just off the leaders here & hoping to out-ping them late.

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