Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet
Tendaho (Race 10 no. 12) $4
Just like last week I don’t think there’s one stone cold moral across tonight’s 12-race programme but if I was going to have $50 straight out on anything it would be this bloke. Always talented, he’s gone to the next level this campaign & if you put a line through his Geelong failure two back he is without doubt the horse they have to beat.
Best Value
Amajorjo (Race 4 no. 7) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I think the odds-makers must have watched a different race to me last week. What I saw was this guy sitting parked and still looking a chance of winning in a race run just outside track record time at Tabcorp Park. He has the bad draw tonight but mark my words - if he follows early leader Night Affair (6) across and gets the lead off him in the early/middle stages they will not run him down. Even if things don’t go to plan he can still definitely run a drum so back him Each Way & enjoy the ride.
Best Roughie
Real Smooth Lombo (Race 8 no. 8) $51
There’s no need to get silly with this one, but if he’s around the $51 quoted in today’s paper then have $5 the win and $25 the place because he looks every chance of lobbing behind likely leader In Monaco (8) and his form, which includes a 3rd placing behind The Ragpickers Dream and a 4th behind Veranjee when working overtime in the run is actually pretty good.
The Money Race
Race 6
There are a few risks attached to this bet but as mentioned before I love races where there are two main hopes & they are drawn nowhere near one another so I’m playing multiples around Repelem (4) and Blucolla Tigerpie (11) here. There are a few other hopes of running a drum but I’m playing as conservatively as possible in the hope of snagging a reasonable result.
4,11/ 4,11/ 5,7,8,10. $60 gets 750%.
4,11/ 5,7,8,10/ 4,11. $40 gets 500%.
Quaddies
3,6,7/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 1,3,8,10. $90 gets 125%.
1,13/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 1,3,8,10. $10 gets 20.83%.
Jackpot Big6
1,7,9,11,12/ 1,3,6,7,13/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 1,3,8,10/ 5,7,9,11. $100 gets 4.17%.
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Value Bets
Wartime Sweetheart (Race 5 no. 8) $6.50
I was on this guy at good odds three runs ago from this very alley when a narrow second to Melpark Major and his two efforts since from poor draws behind Our Blackbird and Alchemy have been excellent so with the gun run behind likely leader and stable mate Composed I’m going to have a decent crack at him each way.
Sovereignty (Race 7 no. 8) $6 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse
Top class Kiwi trotter who should have won the Glenferrie Farm Challenge at Menangle last time when second to Keystone Del but he can make amends here as he should get the gun run behind noted leader The Fiery Ginga and be a big threat once he gets down into the passing lane. He’ll be getting some of mine at the juicy each way odds.
Jackpot Big6
It’s been a while since there was a decent jackpot on a Big6 at Melton on a Friday night but the TAB have come to the party with $15,000 in the pool already so I’m going to attack it four different ways for a total spend of $200. Good luck!
1/ 3/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12/ 5,7,9,11. $60 gets you 50%
7,9,11,12/ 3/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12/ 5,7,9,11. $56 gets you 11.66%
1/ 1,7,13/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12/ 5,7,9,11. $40 gets you 11.11%
7,9,11,12/ 1,7,13/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12/ 5,7,9,11. $44 gets you 3.05%
Quaddies x 2 $100 spend
3/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12. $60 gets you 200%
1,7,13/ 1,2,8/ 4,11/ 3,5,8,10,12. $40 gets you 44.44%
Elegant Image (Race 7 no. 12) $10.00 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse
Produced an astonishing performance last week in the Knight Pistol where he galloped away from a wide alley, gave his rivals around 40m head start and somehow managed to run third behind Vulcan in a new track record of 1:55.9 for the short course. He has the poor draw tonight courtesy of that tardy getaway and it won’t be easy for him but he must be given a strong chance the way he went last start.
Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Mister Zion (Race 7 no. 2) $12 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“We went to Menangle and he just got completely lost there. He wasn’t happy before the race and he was completely out of his comfort zone. I don’t know what went wrong but I’m really happy with him right now. He’s got no gate speed do the draw won’t make a difference, we’ll lob sort of 1 out 3 back or something and I think he’s a great Each Way bet. Probably my best of the night.”
Others
Miss Precious Mach (Race 2 no. 13) $3.20
“She’s had a bit of a setback but she’s had the two trials and while she hasn’t gone really well we’ve been quite happy with her. Whatever she does here she’ll improve on; she’s nowhere near her very best but we’ve worked her another couple of times since her trials and she’s on the way up for sure.”
Charlie Machsheen (Race 4 no. 3) $1.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“His last couple of runs he’s dropped back to a slightly easier class and he’s relished that to be quite honest. I haven’t been disappointed with him all the way it’s just that some people jumped off the bandwagon there for a while. This is another challenge because he’ll have to zip out a bit quicker early to hold his position but plan A will be to find the top again at some stage if we can.”
Washmepockets (Race 5 no. 2) $3
“I doubt we can cross Composed early on, we’ll be trying to of course, but ‘Pockets’ doesn’t have to lead to be competitive anyway. He just runs the same good honest race every week so they’ll know he’s there and then we’ll probably head up to Mildura for the Cup and try to earn some money up there.”
Dougs Courage (Race 9 no. 4) $11
“She’s just pretty basic. She’s only going around because there’s not many in the field and I thought she might as well go around and get the education but she’d have to step up a long way to be competitive with these.”
Tuscan Breeze (Race 9 no. 7) $3.70
“We got the worst of the draws but she’s a competitive, honest little filly and if we get the right run into the race at some stage, she should be earning money.”
Tendaho (Race 10 no. 12) $4
“I’m very happy with him. He blotted his copybook at Geelong which he can do at times but he’s a trotter on the way up I think. There’s plenty of traffic to negotiate and it’s a good field so he could run another enormous race and still get beaten but he’s really going very, very well.”
Eljulio (Race 11 no. 5) $8
“His last run was quite good. He’s always competitive in these sorts of races but he’s a better leader and I’m just not sure he’s going to find the top.”
Sectional Superstar
Jukebox Music (Race 5 no. 5) $17
Glenn Douglas’ electric sit-sprinter strikes a pretty tough race and a very ordinary draw tonight but he simple exploded off a slow tempo last start and will only want a more genuine speed in transit tonight o be dangerous. If you’re looking for a roughie with genuine winning claims he might be your guy.
To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.
As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.
Fastest Last Half – Jukebox Music: 54.65secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Jukebox Music: 26.64secs
Fastest Last Mile – Mister Sheedy: 1:52.75
SPEED MAPS
RACE 1 – SPEED SOLID EARLY – MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
Some good early speed engaged off the front line here with ITS DUTCH COURAGE (2), SPOT NINE (5) and PRINCEOFTHIEVES (7) all likely to push forward at the start. There are no obvious enforcers engaged so the speed should slow once they settle down although VALIANT SUE (12) and FIERY ACHIEVER (13) are talented types who can figure late despite their awful draws.
RACE 2 – SPEED MODERATE EARLY – QUICKENING UP OVER FINAL 800M
Almost impossible to find any genuine speed off the front line here so expect comeback kid THE BINDER (7) to head forward at his fourth run back from a two year break. STEELY BLUE (5) will be handy in transit while class runner MISS PRECIOUS MACH (13) will probably wait for one late crack to run her rivals down.
RACE 3 – SPEED MODERATE EARLY – HEAT TO GO ON OVER FINAL 800M
This race is almost impossible to work out as DREAMIT (1) has never started from behind the mobile and there are no early flyers off the front line. TRIUMPHANT MONARCH (3) has not been in terrific form but should try to work forward here while DREAMIT (1) is the one to beat if he steps. DANNY CASH (12) represents class and should make a mid-race move while BELLINGHAM (7) looks the best late closer.
RACE 4 – SPEED BRILLIANT EARLY – GENUINE THROUGHOUT
NIGHT AFFAIR (6) sprouts wings at the start of his races when livened up and he should find the front early before handing up to whichever out of CHARLIE MACHSHEEN (3) or AMAJORJO (7) gets to his wheel first. ILLAWONG GERALDINE (1) should enjoy a cost run tucked away along the pegs while MISTER SHEEDY (13) should come with a sweeping run from the rear.
RACE 5 – SPEED GOOD OFF THE ARM – MODFERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
There should be a good battle for the early lead here with COMPOSED (1), WASHMEPOCKETS (2) and ONEDIN HUSTLER (6) all likely to want the premier position. Expect COMPOSED (1) to hold his rivals wide early on with the other two racing handy and WARTIME SWEETHEART (8) landing the gun run in behind the speed. Most of the rest can figure if the speed is frantic throughout.
RACE 6 – SPEED GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHOUT
Expect REPELEM (4) to work across and find the front from fellow fast-starter PLEASE DON’T TALK (2) early here although TARA TOPLADY (5) and BEACH MELODY (6) can also begin quite quickly and may put a spanner in the works. BLUCOLLA TIGERPIE (11) should waste little time in trying to find the breeze while NATIONAL GALLERY (10) an also make a mid-race move. THE MIDNIGHT REIGN (8) will need luck from her inside-back-line draw.
RACE 7 – SPEED GOOD IN EARLY SECTION – GENUINE THROUGHT LAST LAP
THE FIERY GINGA (1) and I DIDNT DO IT (3) are both dynamite leaders that should fight out the early lead here with the former horse a strong favourite to retain the front for his polemarking draw. STIG (10) will be looking to occupy a forward position from his second lien draw while SOVEREIGNTY (8) looks a great chance of landing the gun run in behind the speed. Most of the others will need luck to make their way into the race.
RACE 8 – SPEED FAST EARLY – MODERATE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
IN MONACO (1) and PETE OF PAN (2) can both fly the start and should fight out the early lead with the former horse favoured to hold the early lead. RENAISSANCE MAN (5) can go back or forward and still figure late while MARK DENNIS (9) will race handy form his nice trailing draw. Luckless runners from last start NATIONAL SERVICE (7) and GAMBLERS RUSTLER (11)are the most dangerous closers from the back.
RACE 9 – SPEED OK EARLY – MODERATE THROUGHOUT
This is a typically difficult 2YO race where DESIRING BELLA (1) looks as a good a chance as any of retaining the front form her ideal polemarking draw. If she races generously FON DESIGN (2) will also settle in the first couple while KISS KENNY (8) should enjoy a soft trip up along the pegs and TUSCAN BREEZE (7) should come with one run at them late.
RACE 10 – SPEED QUICK EARLY – GENUINE ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
There are a few good beginners from the standing start here including MARIOS DREAM (4). Once the early burn subsides expect MISTER SCORCHER (11) to head forward while TENDAHO (12), ABBOTSHALL (13) and ALDEBARAN SHADES (14) will all be there when the whips are cracking late.
RACE 11 – SPEED QUICK EARLY – OK ONCE THEY SETTLE DOWN
This is another race with its fair share of early speed where any of the first six runners can find the lead. Regardless of what scenario prevails STORMED OUT (3) should race handy along with ELJULIO (5) while BLACK CAPRICE (6) and REAL BONUS (8) are just as likely to come with one run from the rear.
RACE 12 – SPEED MODERATE EARLY – FAIRLY SLOW THROUGHOUT
There’s a bit of speed off the front line here but expect most drivers to respect the likelihood that TIMESEEL (2) will lead with interesting first starter MAJORLOOK (1) parking on his back. TRUMAN (5) or BEN CARTWRIGHT (6) are likely to occupy the breeze with every other runner needing luck to figure late.
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