The Game Plans for ID Heat Night @ Melton
Michael Polster (@mickpolster)
Best Bets
Yankee Rockstar (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Yet another smart youngster for Emma Stewart who is unbeaten in two runs to date, the latest of those on this circuit two week ago when running by Adam Cartwright in the Premiere and with the lead likely to be his tonight he should continue on his winning way.
Restrepo (Race 4 no. 2) $1.90 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Gun 4YO who comes off a record-breaking triumph in the Central Victorian Pacing Championship at Charlton a month back and although this is big step up in grade for him tonight he does have the barrier draw advantage over main rival Smolda, looks like getting the lead and he should be too slick for them thereafter.
Guaranteed (Race 5 no. 10) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Star colt who was unlucky not to win the Victoria Derby at his latest run two weeks back when second to Ohoka Punter and although he will have to earn it tonight from the back row draw I think Chris Alford will inject him into the contest early, may even work to the lead and it will be shut the gate if that scenario plays out.
Best Roughie
Miss Moonlite (Race 3 no. 8) $21/$2.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
This is a strong race for her to contest first up from a break but she has looked sharp in two trial victories on this circuit recently and looks like getting the gun run behind likely leader Pembrook Caesar so I think she represents great value each way on a 1 x 3 basis.
Quaddie
2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12. $100 gets you 277.77%
Big6
1,7,8,9/ 2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12/ 6. $100 gets you 69.44%
Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
All Up
Yankee Rockstar (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has a boom on him the size of Texas and given he has comfortably beaten chief rival Adam Cartwright (9) both times they’ve met and Presidential Secret (2) would need to be one right out of the box to beat either, then $1.70 looks amazing value to me.
The simple fact here is that My Escapee, who like this guy is trained by Mark Purdon, simply dominated I Didn’t Do It last time they me t and this bloke would crush My Escapee if they were racing at home. I Can Doosit has had his issues of late but Purdon is a genius and I’m confident he’d only need to be half right for a very easy victory in this.
That almost no-risk combo is worth $2.64 for every $1 invested. Unbelievable but true.
Best Value
Rodrigo (Race 7 no. 6) $7.50 TAB Fixed Odds & Veranjee (Race 7 no. 7) $10 Tab Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on these horses now
In an extremely open race, Rodrigo (6), that has been low flying all campaign and arrives here off a luckless second in the Terang Pacing Cup, and Veranjee (7) who looked back to his multiple Country Cup-winning form last start, both seem amazing value at $11. I marked both at about half that quote so if you’re getting double figures tonight I suggest you get involved on an Each Way basis.
Best Roughies
This guy came to Australia with massive wraps on him and was very unlucky in both heat and final of the Victoria Derby. He may not be in the same league as Guaranteed but he’s certainly up there with the rest and so long as nothing untoward has happened since he’s been in Australian the $5+ for the place here seems extraordinary odds indeed.
Plenty will scoff at the suggestion, but I still think this bloke has some chance of qualifying for the Inter Dominion Final. What he will need is for Smoken Up or someone else to ensure a quickly run affair and perhaps Glen Craven to hold the top for a fair while with Keayang Cullen (1) but if a couple of things fall into place he has the turn of foot to sneak a placing here and at $6.81 the place he’s worth a little nibble if things go right tonight.
Quaddies (x2)
1,2,11/ 10/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12. $81 gets 150%.
1,2,11/ 5,8,9/ 1,4,7/ 1,2,3,6,7,12. $19 gets 11.73%.
Bill Hutchison (@Hutchysays)
Best Bet
Pembrook Caesar (Race 3 no. 1) $1.60 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Very smart mare even better suited this week over the sprint trip than she was last time out when defeating a very similar field in the Angelique Club Cup. Don't leave likely trailer Miss Moonlite (8) out of any multipl bets in this race either.
Best Value
Katmandonny (Race 1 no. 2) $6
This bloke is a bright prospect who will use this race as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. Tendaho (9) is also more than handy but this bloke looks the better betting proposition from their relative draws.
Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 1) $8 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
This is the clash of the titans between Restrepo (2) and Smolda (11) but don't underestimate this guy, particularly if the favourites lock up in a battle from the top end.
Bitobliss (Race 6 no. 7) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
I'd much rather be on thsi bloke than Caribbean Blaster (4) at their relative prices. Punters shouldn't forget that he sat outside CB and put him to the sword in last year's Kilmore Cup and a repeat performance would see him too good once more.
Hall Of Famer (Race 7 no. 2) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Very keen here on the strength of this guy's death seat second after a brutal trip last week. He's now at his peak and should take some catching.
Quaddie
1,2,11/ 1,5,8,10/ 4,7/ 1,2,3,6,12. $60 gets 50%.
BLACK BOOKERS – Racing Tonight
Metro Mike (Race 4 no. 1) $8 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy has gone from strength to strength since joining Emma Stewart and although he takes on two of the best 4YO’s we’ve seen in a long while tonight he isn’t without an upset chance, as he draws to get a cheap run on the pegs and comes off a slashing second to Im Corzin Terror on this circuit two weeks ago in the Country Clubs Final.
Lennytheshark (Race 5 no. 8) $6.50 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Comes off an excellent performance in the Victoria Derby here two weeks back when fifth to Ohoka Punter where he drew poorly, copped a check before rattling home out wide on the course. He is probably a rung below the absolute best of his age-group but is always more than competitive in whatever he contests and is given an upset chance tonight.
Hall Of Famer (Race 7 No. 2) $4.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse how
Put up by far and away his best effort this campaign here last time when a gallant second to Keayang Steamer in 1:53.3 for the short course where he sat parked the whole way and with the lead more than likely his tonight expect another bold showing.
National Service (Race 7 no. 3) $5 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
It’s fair to say this bloke would have gone horribly close to winning the Terang Cup last start if he had more luck in the straight when an eye-catching fourth to Keayang Cullen and if he gains the right run in transit tonight he is sure to be coming at them with purpose once more.
Our Blackbird (Race 7 no. 12) $5 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse how
There were numerous good runs to come out of the A G Hunter Cup on this track two weeks back and this fellow’s luckless sixth to Mah Sish was one of them. He faces a substantial drop in grade tonight and is sure to be a force in what is one of the most open races of the evening.
STAR TRIALLERS
Miss Moonlite (Race 3 no. 8) $21/$2.20 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
Top class mare who resumes from a spell tonight off the back of two easy trial victories on this circuit in recent weeks and looks primed for a big first up performance. She draws to follow out likely leader Pembrooke Caesar and if you’re thinking of backing one at big odds to cause a boil over than look no further than her.
BLACK BOOKER – Melton Last Night
Adios Gryphon
Was having his third run for Glenn Douglas and showed marked improvement on his first two lacklustre efforts for the new stable when an unlucky third to Keeper Of The Fire after messing up the start, weaving between runners around the turn and not having the best of luck getting a clear crack at them in the straight. He is no star but will be winning a low-grade claimer very soon on last night’s effort.
TABCORP PARK TRAINER TALK
Emma Stewart
Best Chance
Yankee Rockstar (Race 2 no. 6) $1.70 TAB Fixed Odds - Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s a lovely horse. This is probably the best field he’s faced but we really like the horse and he’s got a good draw for him so hopefully he just keeps on improving. We’ll probably go forward early but it doesn’t worry me if he takes a sit wither because he’s got a fair bit of speed”
Others
“She went really well (last week). I was hoping the race was going to be run the same as it was the week before and then she probably would have run over the top of them. She’s a really nice mare who’s obviously got the score on the board and she’s come back really well so hopefully there’s a bit more pressure this week and we can run them down with her blistering sprint.”
“It’s interesting because they’ve both got gate speed so I’m not sure what’s going to happen there. They’ll probably both have to come out and see where they lob. I really like both of the horses. Restrepo’s probably got a bit more class than the other fella but the other fella is a huge improver, I really like him. We definitely want to win the race with one of them because we want to get through to the Chariots (of Fire). We won’t be there to run second, put it that way.”
“I thought he was gone for all money (when he galloped in the Vic Derby final) but the main thing is that it wasn’t the horse’s fault so hopefully he bounces back this weekend. He’s a terrific horse, his run last start was super and it was just one of those things where you don’t think he’s going to get beaten but that’s racing.
“He’s come back better as a three-year-old. He’s definitely not up to Guaranteed for class but he’ll be thereabouts.”
Mark Purdon
Best Chance
“The boys were happy with his trial last Monday. His training has been good since then so if he was back to his old self again I couldn’t see him getting beaten. We’ve looked after him and changed his regime a little bit and he seems to be getting better and better.”
Others
“He was a great run last start so hopefully he can reproduce that sort of form. Even though he had the tough run, he appeared to pull up really, really well. He’s thriving at the moment. There are a couple of nice horses there and we don’t have the best draw but he’s got the ability to make his own luck which is a big advantage. You never know what might happen early, there is a bit of pace on the front line so there is going to be plenty of speed over the first quarter anyway, so I can make a decision after that.”
“I think you have to disregard the run in the Derby heat, he had a flat tyre most of the way. Although he is meeting some nice horses but his work has been good so maybe not a winning chance but certainly a place chance.”
Best Deal Yet (Race 9 no. 11) $2.20
“He just had some time off after his Queensland campaign; he had a really good break actually. He might be a bit late coming into the scene but his training has been good. He will possibly just need the run but his work has been good for the class of horse he is.”
SPEED MAPS
Speed Maps for the final eight races - which will comprise tonight's Good Form Punters Challenge at Tabcorp Park - can be found below. Please note that Smoken Up's scratching in Race 6 will influence the map for that event. For up to date Change Of Tactic information, follow @HRVinformer on Twitter.
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