Good Form Preview - Dirty Dozen @ Tabcorp Park

THE GAME PLANS for Melton 

Michael Polster (@mickpolster)

Value Bets

Itscottobegood (Race 1 no. 1) $5

Tried hard when second to Leighmont in his heat of tonight’s final at Kilmore last Sunday where he chased hard from the rear and that run will do him the world of good as it was his first back from a break for new trainer Steve Cleave.  He comes up with the perfect draw this time around, will either lead or sit behind Leighmont and I think he has a terrific each way chance.

Wartime Sweetheart (Race 7 no. 9) $7

The scratchings of The Phantom and In Monaco has really changed the complexion of this race and it has definitely worked in the favour of this bloke as he draws to follow out speedy beginner Because I Can, who looks like holding the lead tonight, which will give him the gun run.  His form on paper doesn’t read too flash but he will appreciate the soft trip and watch for him to be coming at them via the passing lane in the stretch. 

Best Roughie

Another Elsu (Race 1 no. 8) $15

This guy is no star and doesn’t win out of turn but he has been thereabouts of late and his heat effort at Kilmore behind Hellfire Angel when coming from well back was commendable.  He draws to either trail the leader or be three back the pegs and at reasonable odds I think he is in with an upset chance.

Best Trifectas

Looks like a tricky night for those wanting to play the multiples with confidence but I’ve come up with Races 6,8, and 11 as the best ones to attack and I’m going to spend $300 on the below trifectas.

Race 6

6/ 9/ 1,2,7,8,10,11,12.  $56 gets you 800%

6/ 1,2,7,8,10,11,12/ 9.  $28 gets you 400%

8,9/ 6/ 1,2,7,8,9,10,11,12.  $16 gets you 114.28%

Race 8

6/ 3,4/ 3,4.  $40 gets you 2000%

6/ 3,4/ 1,2,5.  $40 gets you 666.66%

3,4/ 6/ 1,2,3,4,5.  $20 gets you 250%

Race 11

1/ 6/ 2,3,4,5.  $80 gets you 2000%

1/ 3,4/ 6.  $20 gets you 1000%

Quaddies x2 $100 Outlay

1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10,11,12,15/ 6/ 1,7,9,10,11,13.  $60 gets you 27.77%

1,4,5,9/ 1,2,3,6,8,10,11,12,15/ 8,9/ 1,7,9,10,11,13.  $40 gets you 9.25%

Jason Bonnington

Best Bet

Keeper of the Fire (Race 9 no. 5) $2.80
This bloke has had a new lease on life since joining Shaun Kittel and while there’s a couple of new Claimers to contend with here this field isn’t a heap stronger than the one he humbled at Kilmore last start. Expect him to stay out of the early speed burn and then dominate his rivals from the breeze tonight.

Bets Quinella

Lierre Noir (Race 11 no. 1 & Lavra Florence (Race 11 no. 6)
This could probably be an exacta with Lierre Noir (1) to beat Lavra Florence (6) but with the polemarker likely to start very short now Lady Patti is out, you may get better value from the Quinella. Simply put, these two are WAY better than their rivals and while this won’t pay flash, the more you put on, the more you win!

Best Value

Just Live Life (Race 3 no. 2) $7
I fully concede that All I Can Be (6) is the one to beat here but this guy has always been a very good horse and he looks like finally making the next step at this rate. That being said, he is great value at $7 in a C4 to C5 affair this evening.

Quaddies (x2)
1,2,3,4,5,9/ 1,2,6,8,15/ 6/ 1,9,10,13. $60 gets 50%.
1,2,3,4,5,9/ 1,2,6,8,15/ 8,9/ 1,9,10,13. $40 gets 16.67%.


 

STAR TRIALLER

Glenferrie Shuffle (Race 6 no. 6) $1.70

Top class filly who swept all before her last season, winning 5 of her 9 outings with her crowning glory being a devastating victory in the Breeders Crown Final here prior to going for a break.  She resumes tonight off the back of two trial victories on this circuit in recent weeks and this looks a great race for her to kick off her 3YO campaign.