Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Best Bet
Regal Knight (Race 10 no. 8) $3.20
I am willing to guarantee this Andy Gath-trained 4YO will be much shorter than $3.20 tonight but he is as close to a good thing as you’re ever likely to see. A NSW Derby placegetter splitting Smolda and Scandalman last season, he is being aimed at the Chariots of Fire on March 3 at Menangle so the 20m handicap should do little to stop him destroying this moderate bunch.
Best Value
Real Hammer (Race 4 no. 5) $3.20
This guy is arguably Victoria’s fastest horse off the mobile arm. Indeed, he is so quick that you can expect him to be leading this lot after 50m and from there he will roll along in quick sectionals over the Tabcorp Park mile. I think he has this race on toast, particularly if Keayang Steamer (1) cannot hold his back early on, so back him for a stack if this sort of price holds up.
Ringtripleowe (Race 8 no. 5) $5
This guy doesn’t win out of turn but this looks his race. A powerful beginner on his day, I can see him bullying forward in search of the front here and if he gets it I think his rivals will have a tough time running him down, particularly as major danger Illawong Geraldine (8) may be incarcerated along the pegs.
Best Roughies
Tear It All Away (Race 1 no. 6) $11
He is a Wagga and Melton Pacing Cup winner whose won 19 races and grades well against any of his rivals here tonight. Yet again I feel almost sure the $11 won’t be available but if it is I’d be more than willing to have an Each Way crack even through this bloke trialled inconclusively on January 21.
Big Bang Penny (Race 3 no. 12) $21
I was gobsmacked to see this filly pat $21 in today’s Herald Sun given that she’s racing in career best form and there are question marks over many of her chief rivals. The grandstand gate is an obstacle but with most of the class runners drawn poorly in this PBD affair she will only need a reasonable cart into the race to prove dangerous on a Each Way basis in this.
Money Race
Race 4 – Peg Domination Reigns Supreme
This is a beautiful betting race. Why? Let me tell you.
1 – We can easily identify the leader.
Real Hammer (5) is an amazingly fast beginner & will lead on his ear. It’s a great advantage when you’re more than 90% sure who will lead them around.
2 – It’s over the 1720m short course.
Knowing the leader in a sprint race at Melton is huge. Knowing that leader is a quality animal who will roll along & ensure a genuine tempo is even bigger - it all but means that this will be a Peg-Dominated affair as horses racing even one-horse wide will struggle to have an impact at the finish.
3 – The potential peg-line runners all have ability.
Essentially, this means that we know who the leader will be, we’ve narrowed the number of horses who should lob behind the leader and three pegs – and we believe those horse are more than likely to fill the placings.
4 – There are no poorly drawn superstars.
The fly in the ointment here would have been the presence of a real gun drawn, say, barrier 10. It would have created confusion and may have upset the natural order. There is no superstar engaged here so we can be confident this will be a Peg Dominated affair where Real Hammer (5) forms the basis of the four Trifectas below.
5/ 1,2,8/ 1,2,8. $120 gets 2000%.
5/ 1,2,8/ 3,6 $24 gets 400%.
1,2,8/ 5/ 1,2,8. $50 gets 833.33%.
1,2,8/ 5/ 3,6. $6 gets 100%.
Quaddie
1,5/ 1,2,3,4,6,10,11/ 1,2,5,8/ 3,4,7. $100 gets 59.52%.
BIG6
6,8,10,12/ 1,5/ 1,2,3,4,6,10,11/ 1,2,5,8/ 3,4,7/ 5,6,8. $100 gets 4.96%.
Michael Polster (@MickPolster)
Best Quinellas
Race 2 Thisiswhoiam (4) and Lavra Florence (9)
This is a final of a C0 series where the above two look much better than their rivals going on their heat victories at Yarra Valley 11 days ago and with Thisiswhoiam likely to be in front and Lavra Florence up outside her than they should run the Quinella.
Race 4 Keayang Steamer (1) and Real Hammer (5)
There is a little bit of pace to the inside of Real Hammer but he is one of the quickest beginners going around at present and I think he’ll burn across them early to take up the running with Keayang Steamer camped on his back. This will be a peg-dominated affair and they really do look a moral Quinella.
Best Roughie
Sterlish (Race 5 no. 1) $26
I’ve been following this bloke for a while now and he is very close to another win and tonight he comes up with the ideal draw, as he should be on the back of likely leader Im Barney Rubble throughout and will get every chance thereafter. The last time he lobbed behind the speed in a race he ran past some handy types at Ballarat in slick sectionals to cause an upset and I think he looks a great bet each way on a 1 x 3 basis.
Races to Target
Race 2
As mentioned above I think Thisiswhoiam and Lavra Florence will dominate this race with a number of horses in with a shot at filling third so I’m going to play the below trifecta for $100 total spend and hope for a bit of value.
4,9/ 4,9/ 1,3,7,8,11,12,13. $100 gets you 714.28%
Race 4
Similar to Race 2 tonight I think Keayang Steamer and Real Hammer look a moral to fill the Quinella here with Pocket Legend a big chance of running third in what should be a peg-dominated affair so I’m going to play the below trifecta and a couple of first fours around that trio for $100 total spend.
Trifecta: 1,5/ 1,5/ 8. $40 gets you 2000%
First Four: 1,5/ 1,5/ 8/ Field. $50 gets you 312.5%
First Four: 1,5/ 1,5/ 8/ 9. $10 gets you 500%
*My thinking with the last one is that Bettor Give It may go to the pegs and sit four back which will give her an excellent chance of running fourth.
Race 5
Here’s how I see this race unfolding, Im Barney Rubble leading, Sterlish sitting behind, Matty Chrimes in the breeze and Alchemy and Veranjee coming at them late out wide, and if it all goes to plan I really can’t see any of the other runners featuring so I’m going to box the quintet in a trifecta and first four. Below is how I’m spending $100.
Boxed Trifecta: 1,2,6,10,11 $50 gets you 83.33%
Quaddie
1,5/
1,2,6,10,11/ 1,2,5,6,8,11,12/ 3,4,7. $100 gets you 47.61%
TABCORP PARK TRAINER TALK(S)
Paul/Kari Males
Tabcorp Park
Best Chance
Bellas Delight (Race
7 no. 4)
“I rate her a good chance tonight, I think she’ll go really well.
“Pembrook Caesar will probably find the front again and we
will probably be outside her again but we’ll just have to see what happens. I
think of our team she has the best winning hope this weekend.”
Other
Hall Of Famer (Race 4
no. 2)
“I don’t know if he can get to the front with Keayang
Steamer drawn inside him but if he can begin quickly he should get a bit of
cover from a horse like Real Hammer who is generally quick off the arm,”
“His last run was good and he seems to be getting back on
track so hopefully onwards and upwards from now on.
Terang Cup Night
Best Chance
Real Performer (Race
4 no. 4)
“She’s trained on really good and worked well during the
week. I can’t see why she won’t give them a shake down there.
“I’m not sure where she will end up, we’ll be going forward,
and I’d like her to find the front with Charlie Machsheen out the back but
Chris will have to play it by ear. I still think she is probably the best value
of our runners this weekend.
Other
True Happiness (Race
6 no. 7)
“He’s drawn seven so I don’t know what we will
do from there. We’ll have to work it out when we get down there I think.
“He’s a pretty nice horse; he doesn’t work much less than
Real Performer and Hall Of Famer so he's not a bad horse. I think he'll go alright."
Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Tabcorp Park
Real Hammer (Race 4
no.5)
“I’m pretty sure he’ll cross them again and Keayang Steamer
will want to sit on his back. It’s going to be a really good race this one. I
think he will go a bit better than last time, he was on his wrong leg at the
start and he didn’t find the front as easy as I would have liked. Provided he
can get to the front without burning, well he will either run first or second.
Tear It all Away
(Race 1 no.6)
“It’s a long time between drinks but he had a quiet trial a
few weeks ago, if he can run in the first half dozen I’ll be happy.”
Lets Slash An Burn
(Race 1 no.11)
“He’s not going quite as good as he was but he still has to
be in the first couple of picks coming back in grade.”
Lavish Art (Race 3
no.10)
“She’s getting better each run, the second row isn’t a bad
thing for her, she can get back and do no work then come into it like she’s
been doing, and she’s a filly on the way up.”
Terang Cup Night
Best Chance
Charlie Machsheen (Race
4 no.11)
“He ran fifth in the final at Charlton but it was still a
good run. He’s working quite nicely so if he canget a decent run through he
will be in the money.”
Others
Me An Kel (Race 5
no.7)
“He’s been back to Adelaide and had a couple of wins in a
row, I give him a really good each way chance.”
Washmepockets (Race 7
no.2)
“He pulled his head last start so you’ve probably got to
forget that run. Prior to that he was going really good. He’s definitely got an
each-way chance despite being a step up in chance.”
Our Arlington (Race 7
no.6)
“He hasn’t run a bad race for ages, provided he gets some
luck he will be in first three or four.”
BLACK BOOKER
(Racing Tonight)
Alchemy (Race 5 no. 10) $3.5
This
guy ran the race of his life here last Saturday night when a close up second to
the star Kiwi Smolda in 1:52.6 where he enjoyed a nice sit off the pace and
tried his heart out in the straight. He
goes best when driven sit-sprint so the draw tonight isn’t ideal but if things
go his way in the run watch for him to be coming home at a rate of knots.
STAR TRIALLERMy Mach Scooter (Race 11 no. 6) $3.50
Mick Stanley-prepared son of Mach Three on debut who has shown ability in three trials leading into tonight’s contest, the latest of those on this circuit last Monday when second in 1:59.7 for this trip and if he brings that kind of form to the track he will go close in this first up.
BLACK BOOKER (Maryborough Yesterday)
Spot Nine
Former
Tasmanian with John Justice who put up a herculean performance yesterday when
third to Cut For An Ace in brilliant time after being drilled in the early part
of the race by Balance Point in a ballistic lead time and never really getting
any respite thereafter. He was most
unlucky not to get the cash there and will be breaking his Victorian duck very
soon.
We normally resrve Sectional breakdowns for Wednesday's Good Form Blog but this week we've surprised you with a Friday session. Simply click here for all the fractions for EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at the MASSIVE A G Hunter Cup meeting last Saturday night.
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