Friday, July 19, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ Tabcorp Park

Adam Hamilton's Melton Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Tonight’s Tabcorp Park meeting is absolutely ripe for the picking so while we’ve had a pretty unsatisfying week I’m going to put my neck on the chopping block and almost guarantee a week-salvaging comeback at HQ tonight! In all I think I’ve found three horses who are almost over the line plus another two I’m also confident can get the job done. Add to that two value players, one roughie, three Money Races and some Quads and I think there could be a demolition job on the cards tonight.

Best Bets
As mentioned above, I’ve found five horses I’m very bullish about but there are three in particular I just can’t see losing, so my advice is to have an All-Up with those three and a Formula 4 with all 5 legs.

Washmepockets (Race 2 no. 6) $1.90 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Geoff Webster’s pocket rocket isn’t far off FFA level when racing at his best and while he takes on some handy Claimers here I think that Brosnan can just bully forward at the start here and whether he leads or sits parked I think he’ll get the prize.

Real Bonus (Race 5 no. 4) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Victoria’s most improved mare was narrowly touched off in the Vicbred Super Series Final for 4YO Mares last start but she looks a mighty chance of rolling to the top and leading her rivals a merry dance over the sprint trip here if everything pans out to plan.

Magnificent Art (Race 11 no. 5) $1.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Put simply, this bloke is a class above his rivals and whether he’s forced to sit parked or gets gifted the lead early on he should be a fair bit too strong for his rivals here tonight.

Next Best Bets
Astronaut (Race 1 no. 3) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy looks the almost certain leader in a race of little pressure and if he pinches a quarter early on as I expect he will then it will take a big performance to see him run down for mine.

Classic Bliss (Race 4 no. 6) $5 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
My Twitter followers will know I jumped on this girl at $6.50 and I’m mesmerised she’s not favourite for the race. In a nutshell, she loves short course racing, produced the biggest performance of any runner in last week’s heats for this race and draws to lead with little if any fuss, so something dramatic would have to go wrong for her not to figure in the finish.

Best Value
Cold Sister (Race 6 no. 12) $4.80 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now.
Very plainly, she is Victoria and Australia’s best trotting mare and the fact that she’s third elect for this race is bizarre in my opinion. She may not be going as well as she was but she’s still a class above all but Waikare Patricia (13) here tonight.

Im Barney Rubble (Race 7 no. 4) $7.50
My confidence levels aren’t quite as high with this guy but he is an impressive type who should find the lead with relative ease tonight and if there’s a hint of cat and mouse at the back of the field and he pinches a section they may find it hard to mow him down. You’ll want the $7.50 I marked him at in today’s paper but if you get it, get on Each Way tonight.

Best Roughie
Pinevale Willpower (Race 4 no. 8) $21 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
I’ve already mentioned that I’m keen on Classic Bliss (6) in this race but given I marked this guy $6.50 and he’s opened at $21 I’d also be keen to have something the win and plenty the place on him at the silly odds.

The Money Races
Race 5
I’m sniffing a big case of peg-domination here with Real Bonus (4) working to the lead and Born Again Sassy (1) and Exciteusinthecity (9) acting as dangers in behind. Take the below Trifectas and you should come out on top.

4/ 1,9/ 1,9. $40 gets 2000%
4/ 1,9/ 2,3,10,12. $40 gets 500%
1,9/ 4/ 1,9. $10 gets 500%
1,9/ 4/ 2,3,10,12. $10 gets 250%

Race 9
I’ve got this pegged as a total four-horse race with a fifth runner capable of filling a hole with luck. Just the one bet here and it’s a First 4 that could pay handsomely.

3,4,6,7/ 3,4,6,7,10/ 3,4,6,7,10/ 3,4,6,7,10. $50 gets 52.08%

Race 11
The theory here is that Magnificent Art (5) is your almost certain winner and there’s only two other runners I think can fill second place.

5/ 1,2/ 1,2. $30 gets 1500%
5/ 1,2/ 7,8,10. $60 gets 1000%
1,2/ 5/ 1,2,7,8,10. $10 gets 125%

2,5,6,7,8,9/ 1,4,9/ 12,13/ 4,9,10,12,13. $76 gets 42.22%
2,5,6,7,8,9/ 1,4,9/ 2,4,8/ 4,9,10,12,13. $24 gets 10%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Chris Lang
Best Chance
Purplepeopleater (Race 6 no.3) $3 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I am surprised to see her favourite in the market, she’s not had many starts and she hasn’t been tested at this level. I do think she is developing into a very nice mare. Cold Sister probably deserves to be termed the best trotting mare in Australia at the moment but it’s interesting that her three main dangers are four-year-old’s.

“She’s won two of her last three from stands so that will help her a lot tonight.”

Shes An Image (Race 6 no.8) $9 TAB Fixed Odds – Click here to bet on this horse now
“She’s right in it; she’s drawn the inside of the second line which basically puts her on a handicap. She may have some traffic issues but she’s going very well and she’s a very honest mare.

Backas Cobber (Race 9 no. 10) – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He hasn’t won for a while but he’s recent form is very good. There’s three or four winning chances but I think Backas Cobber is right in amongst them. If the race is run to suit he can come home strong.

Lord Liam (Race 10 no.7) $4 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I think he will be better as a later four-year-old but he’s right in the mix and he has drawn the front line. Invasive looks to have the edge on my guy at the minute but he has to come from the outside of the second line.
Kyvalley Rap (Race 12 no.9) $16– Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s last run was quite good, he was held up. He’s drawn to get a nice trip if he follows through early. Shakamond looks like a horse who is going to rush through his classes so he will be hard to beat.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Donegal Delight & Stylish Jasper: 26.92secs
Fastest Last Quarter – La Machane: 55.00secs
Fastest Last Mile – Kotare Roland: 1:54.27

Sectional Superstar
Lively Princess (Race 11 no. 2) – $6 – Click here to bet on this horse now
Drawn on the second row, this daughter of Ambro Operative ended up three back on the backs last time before flashing home at the end.

Her sectionals were as good as most on the night, particularly her 55.8 last half followed by a 27.68 last quarter.

Tonight she has drawn the front row and at worst will be in the running line so if she gets the breaks at the right time she could be a threat to the long odds-on favourite Magnificent Art.

Speed Maps

Race 1
ASTRONAUT (3) is the quickest beginner off the front line here and should take over from JETSHAWJOE (1) who has been showing some early pace in his trials at the start. If that scenario occurs then NARRA OPERATIVE (2) will either punch the breeze or race handy in the running line with THE ROGUE TRADER (9) enjoying an economical peg-line trip and the rest needing luck to get into the race.

Race 2
MEGASAM (1) has been beginning pretty quickly of late and should be able to punch through and hold his rivals wide before handing up to an appropriate rival in the run. It is likely that WASHMEPOCKETS (6) will roll forward at the start and either sit parked or roll forward and take up the running while CATCH YOUR BREATH (10) can either launch forward from his second line draw or come with one run at them late along with the talented but mercurial MELPARK MAESTRO (5).  

Race 3
The scratching of MODERN MARY (6) has thrown this race into disarray. Now it seems that PENNY UNION (3) should lead with PAINTBALL (5) almost certain to find herself in the breeze. MISSCHINOISE (1) should secure an ideal run in behind the speed while the rest, including handy sit-sprinter GUMDROPS (7) will need the speed on throughout to figure at the knock.

Race 4
There is some good speed off the front line here with WATEHORSE (2) likely to cross FIERY COUNT (1) early in before himself being passed by fast starter CLASSIC BLISS (6). If that scenario plays out then either INKY CULLEN (7) or CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (9) should race tough in the breeze while REAL MAGIC (5) should get an easy trip somewhere on the pace. PINEVALE WILLPOWER (8) was excellent winning his heat of this race last week but will need luck to get out from three or four back the pegs.

Race 5
BORN AGAIN SASSY (1) should have enough early toe to hold her rivals wide early on but it is very likely she will hand up to an appropriate rival, which is also likely to be REAL BONUS (4) in the run. If that scenario occurs then TOULOUSE LAUTREC (6) looks the obvious breeze horse while EXCITEUSINTHECITY (9) will lob three back the poles and CULLEN BROMAC (12) should spearhead any three wide line. LOMBO CLOUD NINE (3) and LOVABLE LARRIKIN (10) are other key runners but they will both need some luck to win from where they’ll be.

Race 6
It’s a little tough to work out who’ll take up the running early on here as YANKEE EYES (1), PURPLEPEOPLEATER (2) and BRYLIN CRESCENT (4) could all secure that role and depending who does they can either hold that spot once they find it or hand up to one of the big guns in COLD SISTER (12) or WAIKARE PATRICIA (13) if and when they roll into the race. COLD SISTER (12) is a better chance of putting pressure on as she is experienced from the strands and enjoys front-of-the–field racing while WAIKARE PATRICIA (13) is just as good when coming from well off the speed.

Race 7
IM BARNEY RUBBLE (4) is a typical Lance Justice pacer in that he has very good early speed and on a front line largely devoid of gate speed he should cross to the top, although DECORATED JASPER (7) can also burn the arm and he may have a crack for that role if Jodi Quinlan fires him up at the start. HAVE A BENDER (10) and JACCKA CLIVE (12) are both brutal enforcers by nature who will be vying for the spot outside the leader pretty soon after the start while MOTU CRUSADER (9) and BITOBLISS (13) are both likely to be driven conservatively before swooping on their rivals in the lane.

Race 8
There’s little doubt that IN MONACO (6) is the quickest horse off the front line but there’s no guarantee he’ll be lit up at the start. If he is, then he’ll be finding the top but if he’s not then HOAGY BROMAC (1), OHOKA MACH (2) and OUR CALL OF DUTY (5) can all fight out the early lead with DJIBOUTI (7) equally likely to go back or forward. FARMERSNTRADIES (8) will also have two option; to either sit pretty on the pegs or get off early in search of clear running while DONEGAL DELIGHT (12) can launch in transit or get a suck run somewhere off the speed.

Race 9
EL PACO (3) and EARL HARBOUR (4) are both quick beginners from the mobile who should fight out the early lead. Expect EARL HARBOUR (4) to win that battle with GOLDSTAR INVASION (6) working up to sit handy in the run. DUKE OF THE MOMENT (7) has blown the start at his last two runs from the mobile but can also race handy if he gets in right tonight while BACCKAS COBBER (10) should opt to race sit-sprint from his awkward second row draw.

Race 10
A few of these have speed off the front line but expect LORD LIAM (7) to be prominent and probably take up the running if Chris Lang is keen for the top. If that scenario occurs then INAVSIVE (12) and PRIDE OF SUNDON (11) will have to work into the race from their second line draws with FIFTYSHADESOFBROWN (9) put into a difficult position now he’ll start from barrier eight with the scratching of Packed Up Early.

Race 11
This race could provide an interesting start as PUBLIC PERSUASION (1) has really good gate speed and will probably have the option of holding out fellow fast starter MAGNIFICENT ART (5) or handing up to that bloke in the run. Either way IRISH CREST (8) will get a cosy peg-line trip while LIVELY PRINCESS (2) should lob a handy running-lien role. KANKUNNEN (7) can either roll forward in search of a forward spot or snag back at the start while GOHARDORGOHOME (10) will be forced to come with one long, searching run to figure.

Race 12

FASTER THAN CLEO (3) and MONICA MY DEAR (4) both have good early toe and should fight out the early lead with the latter horse likely to prevail while a heap of horse including MALLEE TRAPPER (7) and SOLAR FLASH (11) may head off in search of the breeze. Key runner SHAKAMOND (8) is likely to look for an exit away from the pegs pretty early on and certainly looms as the hors e to beta if he finds one.

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