Friday, July 12, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

Adam Hamilton's Melton & Maryborough Preview

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
There are a few less races than we’re used to on a Friday night at Tabcorp Park but it still looks like a goldmine from a betting perspective and given Good Form followers should be cashed up after a very profitable week I reckon we open the shoulders and have a genuine crack. In all, I’m going to target one Best Bet, one Best Value Bet, four Money Races and the Quad while I’ve also thrown in a suggested BIG6 for those wanting to exploit the TAB’s $50,000 Jackpot this evening. Let’s play!
Best Bet
Teo Enteo (Race 7 no. 8) $2.50 - Click here to bet on this horse now
The moment I printed out fields for tonight I knew I’d be keen on this bloke and a thorough analysis of the race has only made my confidence grow. A devastating ambush artist by nature, he could not have asked for a better draw as he will follow out likely leader Atlas Alliance (2) and after going within 1.8m of winning a very similar race to this three starts back I’m not sure how they’ll resist his brutal finishing burst.

Best Value
Blazeaway Macray (Race 5 no. 1) $4 - Click here to bet on this horse now
This girl is one of Victoria’s most improved mares, not necessarily in terms of ability, but her will to win and competitive instinct is much better than it was in her 3YO term. She has fantastic gate speed and looks a 90% chance of holding the lead tonight, add to the mix that there won’t be any great pressure in transit and if she goes as well as she has through semi-final and final of the Vicbred Super Series for 4YO mares I don’t think even the great Broadways Best (11) can run her down.

The Money Races
Race 2
I love heat-and-final series’ and this is no different given the fact I’m almost certain the two heat winners Sapphire Swayze (11) & Cheesy Grin (13) are a class above their rivals and will fight the finish out in spite of their car park draws. I’ve played pretty skinny for third but you can play wider if you think there’s one I’ve left out in my quest for a big Flexi percentage.

11,13/ 11,13/ 1,3,4,8,10. $50 gets 500%
Race 3
A number of events tonight are basically four-horse races and this is no different with Real Magic (1), Cheap Tint (4), Pinevale Willpower (7) and Narra Operative (8) the only winning chances for mine. Box that quartet up in your main Trifecta and play a little wider for third in your saver tonight.

1,4,7,8 Boxed. $30 gets 125%
1,4,7,8/ 1,4,7,8/ 3,9. $20 gets 83.33%

Race 5
As mentioned above, I’m fully expecting Blazeaway Macray (1) to lead and win here but even if she is to get rolled I can’t see her finishing any worse than second. Much like the previous Money Race I concede winning chances to four runners in total, so I’ll be making provisions for any of Bettor Give It (5), Lombo Cloud Nine (8) or Broadways Best (11) and then play a little wider fro third.

1/ 5,8,11/ 5,8,11. $24 gets 400%
1/ 5,8,11/ 6,7,9,12. $12 gets 100%
5,8,11/ 1/ 5,8,11. $12 gets 200%
5,8,11/ 1/ 6,7,9,12. $2 gets 16.67%

Race 7
Also mentioned above is my theory that Atlas Alliance (2) will hold the lead here with Teo Enteo (8) on his back and I’d be shocked if they didn’t fight out the finish if that scenario plays out as expected. I’ve played pretty skinny for second and third but you can play wider if you’re feeling conservative.

2,8/ 2,8/ 5,9,10,11,12. $40 gets 400%
2,8/ 5,9,10,11,12/ 2,8. $10 gets 100%

Quaddies (x2)
1,2,3,4,9/ 1,5,8,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 2,8. $80 gets 50%
1,2,3,4,9/ 1,5,8,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 9,11. $20 gets 12.5%

Jackpot BIG6
1,4,7,8/ 1,2,3,4,9/ 1,5,8,11/ 1,2,6,8/ 2,8/ 5,6,7,8,10. $50 gets 1.56%

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Geoff Webster
Best Chance
Kotare Roland (Race 7 no.12) $9 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s drawn poorly but he’s only got to have the right run into the race and he is as good, if not better, than most of the others in it.

“I think he is over the odds, no one is really tipping him but he couldn’t have been any more impressive than he has been in his last few starts. Once horses get there form it’s usually a good sign, and at the moment he is going really well.
Real Magic (Race 3 no.1) $2.70 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“It’s a good barrier any time but especially over the 1700 at Melton, so hopefully he can take advantage of it.

“He’s got gate speed to some degree but not brilliant. He should be up there in the first four or five in the first part of the race. It’s an even lot, there aren’t any standout’s I don’t think.

Have A Bender (Race 4 no.2) $3.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He went terrific last week and there is no reason he won’t go as good this week. He’s drawn well, there is a bit of early speed but if we can be out in front it would be nice.

Washmepockets (Race 4 no.3) $6 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He just runs his honest race every week; he’ll never let you down. From the barrier he will hopefully play his part at some stage of the race.”

Future Operator (Race 8 no.10) $5.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He bounced back last start. He’s form has been a little bit up and down but if he can get a cart into the race he’s shown before he can win from back in the field. He’s got an each way chance.

Badewitz (Race 9 no.2) $9 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He won’t disgrace himself, he’s first up for a while but we are very happy with his work. He should be on the pegs and he might not be able to beat them but he won’t be far away.

“He’s an immature little horse, there’s not much of him but he’s got a good heart so he should go through the classes.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Teo Enteo: 27.12ecs
Fastest Last Quarter – Border Control: 55.41secs
Fastest Last Mile – Im Barney Rubble: 1:56.29

Sectional Superstar
Im Barney Rubble (Race 4 no.4) – $6 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This guy was absolutely outstanding in defeat for Lance Justice last week. He was arguably in an easier race but he made up a stack of ground, easily running the fastest last half and last quarter of the race.

That combined with the fact he paced the fastest last mile of any horse on a night littered with Group 1 races suggest he is primed for tonight. He gets back on to the front row and if he can take up a handy position he should prove hard to beat.

Speed Maps

Race 1
There is plenty of speed of the front line here with THE NIGHT PEARL (1), GIVEUSAGRIN (2) and CLASSIC BLISS (4) all possessing plenty of early toe but expect THE NIGHT PEARL (1) to hold up early if he shows the same speed he did at Shepparton two starts back. If that scenario prevails then ASTRONAUT (8) should get a soft peg-line run while CARPENTERS DAUGHTER (5) should go forward and punch the breeze, a position from which she can dictate the pace of the race.

Race 2
This is a quick front but even so the blistering KENSINGTON PALACE (4) should be first to the pegs. If she does lob the early lead then Nathan Jack can either hand up to a horse like IM LIVING THE DREAM (3) or wait for the big guns in SAPPHIRE SWAYZE (11) and CHEESY GRIN (13) to head forward in search of the lead roles soon after the start. Either way BEAU CIEL (1) and LIVELY PRINCESS (8) should secure economical inside runs while all the rest will need luck to figure late.

Race 3
REAL MAGIC (1) does possess soma early gate speed and may hold up from the polemarking draw but there’s a huge chance that noted fast-starter PINEVALE WILLPOWER (7) will cross the lot early from his wide font-line draw. Either way born enforcer CHEAP TINT (4) looks likely to be punching the breeze with NARRA OPERATIVE (8) enjoying a cushy peg-line trip and TYLER BROMAC (3) tucked away somewhere in the running line waiting for one crack at his rivals late in the piece.

Race 4
CULLEN BROMAC (1), HAVE A BENDER (2), WASHMEPOCKETS (3) and IM BARNEY RUBBLE (4) all have varying degrees of gate speed and each could find the front if they fly the arm although he inside draw is a big advantage for CULLEN BROMAC (1) and he should hold his rivals wide if Jodi Quinlan so desires. If he doesn’t get the lead HAVE A BENDER (2) looks your chief death seat candidate while THE SMILER (8) should stick hard to the peg-lines and hope to ambush his rivals along with stablemates  WARTIME SWEETHEART (9) & SMUDGE BROMAC (6).

Race 5
BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (1) is a sizzling beginner that looks 90% sure of holding the lead from her polemarking draw. If she does, then expect BETTOR GIVE IT (5) to work forward in search of a handy role early on while BROADWAYS BEST (11) will either buzz forward with a mid-race move ort come with one searching run from well back in the field. Either way LOMBO CLOUD NINE (8) will get the soft peg-line run she loves while all of the rest will need plenty of luck to figure as genuine winning hopes.

Race 6
Each of INKY CULLEN (1), TARA TOPLADY (2) and CONFLICT OF INTEREST (3) possess good early speed and while CONFLICT OF INTEREST (3) is probably the quickest out on his day, expect INKY CULLEN (1) to push through and hold the early advantage. If he does then BAD CAT (8) should enjoy an economical run while natural enforcer INDULGENT (6) should be sent forward to put some pressure in the race from his wide front line draw.

Race 7
ATLAS ALLIANCE (2), JACCKA LUKE (3) and DAYLIGHT DAN (4) each have good early toe but given ATLAS ALLIANCE (2) has run his best races from the head of affairs, I think Rhys Nicholson would be reticent to hand up the lead. If ATLAS ALLIANCE (2) does hold the top as expected then TEO ENTEO (8) should get his preferred run in behind the leader while fellow sit-sprinter LOVABLE LARRIKIN (9) may also duck back to the pegs in search of the cheapest possible run. COMPOSED (11) and KOTARE ROLAND (12) are the dangerous closers from the back but will need plenty of luck and the speed on throughout.

Race 8
This is a pretty hard race to read from a speed perspective as TOMBSTONE EDEN (5) in particular can go either back or forward but MINTI CHOICE (6) is a sizzling beginner on his day who should find the front from his wide front-line draw if unleashed at the start. There is no natural enforcer engaged but ROYAL WITNESS (7) & BLACK CAPRICE (11) will be keen to get into the fight while MACY SUPREME (8) can either stick to the pegs or peel out and put pressure into the race once he’s out and running.

Race 9

This is another tough race to read but RULE LIKE AKING (3) races best from the head of affairs and will be looking for that role while REALY UNDER FIRE (1) performs at his top when smothered in behind the speed so he should end up in the trailing role. RUSTYS REJECT (4) is typical of most Jackson Painting-trained horse in that he likes to do it tough so expect him to be up on the speed while sit-sprint specialist MAJOR STEPPE (6) will either blast out of the machine before taking a trail or lob back toward the rear and try to ambush his rivals in the lane.

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