Friday, July 26, 2013

Good Form Preview - Friday Night @ HQ

The Game Plan for Melton – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
If you’re a value punter there’s plenty for you to get excited about tonight with question marks over almost all of the favourites and wide open races the order of the night. In fact, such is the depth of tonight’s card that there are only two horse I can’t see losing and both will be at red figure odds. We will couple them together in a little All-Up while also attacking four Money Races and some quads. Also keep an eye out for the two Black bookers outlined beneath the Game Plan.

Best Bets/All-Up ($50)
We won’t be able to retire on this little All-Up but if it lobs we should get something like  $130 for a $50 outlay which isn’t bad at all. 

Brunelleschi (Race 2 no. 5) $1.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
I actually think tonight’s assignment is a little harder than his Vicbred Super Series win last start purely because he isn’t a brilliant beginner and over the short course he’ll be forced to do a lot of chasing but having said that, he oozes class and should dominate this lot if he gets even the littlest bit of luck in transit.

Blazeaway Macray (Race 8 no. 1) $1.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This mare was awesome in the Vicbred Super Series for 4YO mares and was only beaten by two very smart rivals in the Jane Ellen last time out. Over the short course here she should lead them around and with any luck at all they won’t get near her in the lane.

The Money Races
Race 2
As mentioned above Brunelleschi (5) looks a class above his rivals while Sundons Promise (1) is a clear second pick from the draw and Zedalite (6) an outright third pick on talent alone. Expect that trio to dominate but have a few savers in case one of them is not quite at their best.

5/ 1/ 6. $15 gets 1500%
5/ 1/ 2,8,9,11,12. $25 gets 500%
5/ 6/ 1. $5 gets 500%
5/ 6/ 2,8,9,11,12. $5 gets 100%

Race 6
If Donegal Delight (1) finishes up no worse than the leader’s back here I think she will be winning but that’s a big if and with Inky Cullen (6) and Composed (9) both low flying I think they are the major dangers. Outside of that trio it’s a race without great depth, so we can play a couple of Trifectas and expect a result.

1,6,9/ 1,5,6,9,10/ 1,5,6,9,10. $41 gets 113.89%
1,6,9/ 1,5,6,9,10/ 4,8,11. $9 gets 25%

Race 8
As previously mentioned, I think Blazeaway Macray (1) looks pretty close to a cold, stone stinking moral here with class mare Louvre (3) and likely trailer The Midnight Reign (8) most likely to lob the silver medal role and plenty with some chance of sneaking into third.

1/ 3,8/ 2,3,6,7,8. $40 gets 500%
1/ 2,6,7/ 2,3,6,7,8. $10 gets 83.33%

Race 9
All things being equal Quite A Moment (5) should win this race and Rosalie Bay (3) should finish second. We are dealing with trotters here though so be prepared for disappointment if one or the other makes an error, because if they do, we are cactus. I’m confident they’ll do everything right though and help us finish the night on a high!
5/ 3/ 1,2,6,8,9. $30 gets 600%
3/ 5/ 1,2,6,8,9. $10 gets 200%
5/ 1,2,6,8,9/ 3. $10 gets 200%

6,7,8,11/ 2,3,5,6,7,11/ 1,5,6,9,10/ 4,7,9,10. $100 gets 20.83%

Black Bookers (Racing Tonight)
The Unionist (Race 4 no. 7) $2.80 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke is a dead-set short-course specialist that first caught the eye rattling home to win at Terang two starts back before making up many lengths in the straight at Ballarat last time out. He has a terrible draw to contend with tonight but could not be going any better and must be rated as the one they have to beat. Click here to view his most recent run.

Mallee Trapper (Race 9 no. 9) $14 – Click here to bet on this horse now
This bloke was restrained from a wide front line draw last time out before making a long, searching three-wide run from the 800m mark and only going down by 12m to exciting trotter Shakamond. That was his second eyecatching run in a row and while he’s not a huge winning hope tonight, he can certainly fill a place from the handy trailing draw. Click here to view his most recent run.

To view the sectional splits of EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Melton last Friday night simply click here.

As a snapshot below, here are some of the star sectional performers at Melton last weekend.

Fastest Last Half – Bitobliss: 27.00secs
Fastest Last Quarter – Lombo Cloud Nine: 55.00secs
Fastest Last Mile – Exciteusinthecity: 1:56.25

Sectional Superstar
Melpark Maestro (Race 5 no.2) – $8.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
The difference between this guy’s best and worst can no doubt frustrate punters but it’s hard to argue with the way he has been going about it in his last handful of starts.

Last time out in particular he marked himself a sectional superstar in a performance that saw him run the fastest last mile in the race by well over a full second; he also paced the quickest last half of the race.)

He loomed up to run past Washmepockets in that race but couldn’t quite get past him in the straight, given he has drawn the running line and Washmepockets has drawn even wider on the front row, there is every chance he can turn the tables tonight.

Tabcorp Park Trainer Talk – Dean Braun
Best Chance
Inky Cullen (Race 6 no.6) $4.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“Every time I raise the bar he just seems to step up and he did again last week.

“He resembles Chain Of Command who won the heat and finals Inky Cullen won last week and the M1-2 series but not many can do that.

“The draws a bit tricky but Chris Alford is in good form and will work the right passage. He can do anything really; if we choose to light him up off the arm he might even find the front.

“The boys worked him on Wednesday and they were really happy with him.

“You probably can’t go wrong following him, he hasn’t done much wrong in 15 starts so hopefully he doesn’t let us down tonight.”

Dartmoor (Race 1 no.9) $6 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“He’s been a lovely old horse; he’s done a really good job for us.

“He was a little disappointing last time at Shepparton but we’ve given him a little freshen up and I’m sure he’ll run a very good race tonight.

Catch Your Breath (Race 5 no.6) $8.50 – Click here to bet on this horse now
“I was happy enough with him last week, he should be a bit better this week.

“In saying that he is stepping up in grade but he’s work has been good and I’m sure he will race forward and be pretty handy to the speed.”
*To listen to Dean Braun's full interview with Nadia Horne (@NadiaHorne) on RSN Winners, simply click here.
Speed Maps

Race 1
This is a most interesting race where MISTER DOUGLAS (1), JETSHAWJOE (2), MEGASAM (3), LUV THA ACES LOMBO (5) and WILLOUGHBY (6) should all come out running in search of an early advantage. If the speed is slick enough early, that will suit horses like DARTMOOR (9) and MACH RULER (10) who should both come charging with three wide runs while POCKET BOY (8) will be hoping he doesn’t get shuffled too far back the pegs in transit if he’s to feature late.

Race 2
SUNDONS PROMISE (1) and ZEDALITE (6) should dispute the early lead here if they both get out as well they can with BRUNELLESCHI (5) likely to balance up early before going around his rivals in search of the lead or the breeze. There shouldn’t be too much action once the big guns have found their spots with REGAL EQUATION (8) and GLUTEUS MAJOR (2) both enjoying economical trips and the rest needing luck to work into the race.

Race 3
PUBLIC PERSUASION (2) holds all the early aces here as he should find the pegs first before holding that spot or handing up to an appropriate rivals. Expect him to hold up if the pressure isn’t intense with ALINA (1) enjoying a nice run in behind him and CYCLADES (7) working forward from his wide front line draw. CYRUS (8) may stick to the pegs but he’s a tough type whose best hope will come by shifting off and racing deep while FUTURE OPERATOR (9) and WESTERN ROCKSTAR (10) look the most dangerous late closers.

Race 4
OUR CALL OF DUTY (6) showed terrific gate speed to find the front before handing up last time so he looks best placed to take the early lead here although FIERY COUNT (1) and DUAL AGENT TABMAN (4) both have some early toe. THE UNIONIST (7) looks very likely to roll forward from his wide front line draw here and he should find the lead or the breeze if he does but he can also be dangerous if he snags back and comes with one big run. FIVE OCLOCK AFFAIR (11) is the other key runner and he is likely to make a mid-race move or lead the three wide line home while the rest, including the very talented REAL MAGIC (8) will need more than their fair share of luck to be a factor at the knock.

Race 5
There is plenty of speed off the front line here with ARTOC (3), SMOKIN JOKER (4), EXCITEUSINTHECITY (5) and CATCH YOUR BREATH (6) all capable of flying the mobile arm. Regardless of who finds the front WASKMEPOCKETS (7) is likely to find himself outside the leader at some point with TOULOUSE LAUTREC (11) leading any three wide line. TALK TO THE HAND (1) and PACIFIC SOUL (8) will both enjoy soft peg-line runs but their winning chances will be determined by what happens at the start.

Race 6
There isn’t a heap of front line speed engaged here for such a strong race with DONEGAL DELIGHT (1) likely to be looked after early and both FIERY ACHIEVER (4) and INKY CULLEN (6) fighting out the early lead. Whoever finds the front, COMPOSED (9) should be on his bike early in search of a forward spot while KOTARE ROLAND (10) and LOVABLE LARRIKIN (5) will both need some speed on through the middles stages to overwhelm their rivals in the lane. CUT FOR AN ACE (8) has talent but will likely get too far back from the draw while JUKEBOX MUSIC (11) is also going well but the grandstand gate won’t help his cause.

Race 7
The scratching of Earl Of Mot has all but assured the fact that EARL OF HARBOUR (4) will find the early lead. Once he gets there he can go for an all-the-way win or hand up to an appropriate rival with CHUCK WAGON (3) and MOTU YOUNG JACOB (5) most likely to pour the pressure on. COLD SISTER (9) can either sit back and come with one run or work forward mid race while STONED I AM (10) may have to make his own luck along with devastating sit-sprint type I SEE ICY EARL (7).

Race 8
BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (1) is a brilliant beginner who should hold her rivals wide with ease into the first turn here and hold the top in transit once she finds it. THE MIDNIGHT REIGN (8) looks the logical horse to trail BLAZEAWAY MACRAY (1) but ILLAWONG KATH (2) may also make a play for that spot if she begins well enough. The classy LOUVRE (3) is likely to punch the breeze while rest will be hoping for plenty of luck if they’re to figure in the finish.

Race 9

ROSALIE BAY (3) is a terrific beginner form the mobile start who should find the pegs first from her favourable front line draw although BUBBA MACRAY (2) can also begin swiftly on its day. QUITE A MOMENT (5) is the class factor of the race and should go searching for the lead or the breeze pretty early on while MONICA MY DEAR (8) should enjoy a soft peg-line trip and MALLEE TRAPPER (9) head a list of runners who can be dangerous late closers if the speed is on throughout.

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