Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Good Form Preview - Tuesday @ Cranbourne

The Game Plan for Cranbourne – with Jason Bonnington (@jasonbonnington)
Cranbourne does have the capacity to produce some pretty predictable results if the conditions are right and they certainly seem that way tonight. Small fields with few obvious enforcers engaged should make for some slowly run races where the class horses will dominate proceedings. I could probably have gotten more cavalier but I’ve just isolated three Best Bets at short odds while also attacking 1 Money Race and 3 pretty dear Quads. 

Best Bets/All-Up ($50)
More Than Alright (Race 5 no. 2) $2
This mare placed in a heat of last season’s Victoria Oaks behind Our Femme Fatale and Im Smouldering and resumes off the back of a good Tabcorp Park trial behind Romes Burning and Macha at Tabcorp Park. Critically, she also has very good gate speed and if she heads them off here they will not run her down.

Mcniven (Race 6 no. 7) $2.80
The wrap on this bloke might be a bit bigger than it should be and I’m not even 100% sure he would have won at Warragul last start when locking wheels late but he is a pretty smart customer who has speed to burn and can overcome the awful draw today.

Avalon Castle (Race 8 no. 2) $2.25
He is a beautifully bred half-brother to Mother Courage, Tandias Courage and Crusaders Castle who zipped out to lead before comfortable claiming a Tabcorp Park trial on February 11. These 2YO races are always tricky but I’m happy to say he will be far too good.

The Money Race
Race 5
As mentioned above I think More Than Alright (2) will lead and win here and if he does then Mystic Soldier (1) is the leading silver medal candidate just clear of Tarleton Brad (8).

2/ 1/ 8. $30 gets 3000%
2/ 1/ 3,7,9. $30 gets 1000%
2/ 8/ 1. $10 gets 1000%

The Quads (x3)
1,2,3,7/ 2/ 7/ 1,2,5,6,7,8. $120 gets 500%
1,2,3,7/ 2/ 2,3,4/ 1,2,5,6,7,8. $36 gets 50%
1,2,3,7/ 1,8/ 7/ 1,2,5,6,7,8. $24 gets 50%

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